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First Conference of the Macro-prudential Research (MaRs) network of the European System of Central Banks
Wednesday, 5 and Thursday, 6 October 2011 Frankfurt am Main
Wednesday, 5 October 2011
| 8.15 a.m. - 8.45 a.m. | Registration |
| 8.30 a.m. - 9 a.m. | Welcome coffee |
| 9 a.m. - 9.15 a.m. | Opening remarks Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank |
| 9.15 a.m. - 10.30 a.m. | Session 1 Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy Chair: Philipp Hartmann, European Central Bank Paper I Bubbles, Banks and Financial Stability by Kosuke Aoki*, University of Tokyo and Kalin Nikolov, European Central Bank Paper Presentation Paper 2 Financial Crises, Credit Booms and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons by Oscar Jordá, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Moritz Schularick*, Freie Universität Berlin and Alan M.Taylor, Morgan Stanley Paper Presentation Discussant: Jaume Ventura, Pompeu Fabra University and CREI Discussion General discussion |
| 10.30 a.m. - 10.45 a.m. | Coffee break |
| 10.45 a.m. - 12 p.m. | Session II Leverage Cycles and Macro-Financial linkages Chair: Xavier Freixas, Pompeu Fabra University Paper 1 Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets, Bank Leverage Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics by Ansgar Rannenberg*, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique Paper Presentation Paper 2 Leverage, Balance Sheet Size and Wholesale Funding by H. Evren Damar, Césaire A. Meh and Yaz Terajima*, Bank of Canada Paper Presentation Discussant: Luc Laeven, International Monetary Fund Discussion General discussion |
| 12 p.m. - 12.50 p.m. | Keynote Address on Policy Vítor Constâncio, European Central Bank Speech |
| 12.50 p.m. - 2 p.m. | Lunch |
| 2 p.m. - 3.50 p.m. | Session III Macro-Prudential Policy Chair: Laurent Clerc, Banque de France Paper 1 Leaning Against Boom-bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices by Luisa Lambertini, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, College of Management, Caterina Mendicino*, Banco de Portugal and Maria Teresa Punzi, University of Nottingham Presentation Paper 2 Macro-prudential Policy and the Conduct of Monetary Policy by Denis Beau, Laurent Clerc* and Benoît Mojon, Banque de France Paper Presentation Paper 3 Financial Regulation in General Equilibrium by Charles A.E. Goodhart, London School of Economics, Anil Kashyap, University of Chicago, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos*, University of Oxford and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis*, Banque de France Paper Presentation Discussant: David Aikman, Bank of England Discussion General discussion |
| 3.50 p.m. - 4.05 p.m. | Coffee break |
| 4.05 p.m. - 5 p.m. | Keynote Address on Research Marcus Brunnermeier, Princeton University Presentation |
| 5 p.m. - 6.15 p.m. | Session IV: Contagion Risk Chair: Paolo Angelini, Banca d’Italia Paper 1 Contagion at the Interbank Market with Stochastic LGD by Christoph Memmel, Deutsche Bundesbank, Angelika Sachs*, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich and Ingrid Stein, Deutsche Bundesbank Paper Presentation Paper 2 Funding Costs and Loan Pricing by Multinational Bank Affiliates by Alexis Derviz* and Marie Raková, Česká národní banka Paper Presentation Discussant: Morten Bech, Bank of International Settlements Discussion General discussion |
| 8 p.m. | Dinner |
Thursday, 6 October 2011
| 8.30 a.m. - 9 a.m. | Coffee |
| 9 a.m. - 10.15 a.m. | Session V Financial Stability Indicators Chair: Kateřina Šmídková, Česká národní banka Paper 1 A Financial Systemic Stress Index for Greece by Dimitrios P. Louzis and Angelos T. Vouldis*, Bank of Greece Paper Presentation Paper 2 Mapping the State of Financial Stability by Peter Sarlin*, Åbo Akademi University and Tuomas A. Peltonen, European Central Bank Paper Presentation Discussant: John Theal, Banque centrale du Luxembourg Discussion General discussion |
| 10.15 a.m. - 11.10 a.m. | Keynote Address on Research Jean-Charles Rochet, Universität Zürich Presentation |
| 11.10 a.m. - 11.25 a.m. | Coffee break |
| 11.25 a.m. - 1.15 p.m. | Session VI Early Warning Models Chair: Carsten Detken, European Central Bank Paper 1 Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries by Jan Babecký,Tomáš Havránek*, Jakub Matějů, Marek Rusnák, Kateřina Šmídková and Bořek Vašíček, Česká národní banka Paper Presentation Paper 2 Predicting Recession Probabilities with Financial Variables over Multiple Horizons by Fabio Fornari* and Wolfgang Lemke*, European Central Bank Paper Presentation Paper 3 Business Cycles, Monetary Transmission and Shocks to Financial Stability by Kim Abildgren*, Danmarks Nationalbank Paper Presentation Discussant: Ray Barrell, Brunel University Discussion General discussion |
| 1.15 p.m. - 1.20 p.m. | Closing Session |
| 1.20 p.m. - 2.30 p.m. | Lunch |
General Information
| Seminar dates | Wednesday, 5 October 2011 – Thursday, 6 October 2011 |
| Seminar location | European Central Bank Eurotower – conference room CIV Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Tel.: +49 69 1344 0 Fax: +49 69 1344 6000 E-mail: info@ecb.europa.eu |
| Seminar language | English |
| Dinner | Wednesday, 5 October 2011, 8 p.m. Restaurant Siesmayer Siesmayerstraße 59 60323 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: +49 69 9002-9200 |
| Organising Committee | Paolo Angelini, Laurent Clerc, Carsten Detken, Xavier Freixas, Philipp Hartmann,Angela Maddaloni, Katerina Šmídková |
| Contact person: | For questions regarding the logistical organisation of the workshop, please contact: Mr Dimitrios Koukidis, Events and Protocol Team Tel.: +49 (0)69 1344 7861 Fax: +49 (0)69 1344 5775 E-mail: evp-events@ecb.europa.eu Ms SabineWiedemann, Financial Research Division Tel.: +49 (0)69 1344 6436 Fax: +49 (0)69 1344 8552 E-mail: sabine.wiedemann@ecb.europa.eu For content related questions, please contact: Ms Angela Maddaloni, Financial Research Division Tel.: +49 (0)69 1344 8768 Fax: +49 (0)69 1344 8552 E-mail: angela.maddaloni@ecb.europa.eu The programme may be subject to change without notice. |