Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
ACCOUNTABILITY
10 November 2026
Preparing the euro for the future
Live today at 15:00 CET: Executive Board member Piero Cipollone appears before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs to discuss how we are preparing the euro for the future, from our progress on the digital euro, to the new euro banknote designs.
SPEECH
5 November 2026
Navigating stormy waters
At the end of her time at the European Central Bank, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel reflects on what she has learnt about monetary policy, highlighting four key takeaways on the choice of tools, the response to shocks, fiscal and financial dominance, and implementation.
Read Ms Schnabel's speech
PODCAST
3 November 2026
Financing the AI boom
The AI boom needs funding. In our latest podcast episode, Paul Gordon and Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau discuss why large US technology firms are turning to euro area bond markets to finance AI infrastructure, and what a more interconnected financial market could mean for Europeans.
Listen to the latest episode of Euro Matters- 6 November 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 4 November 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 2 November 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 30 October 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 5 November 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2026
- 5 November 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the eighth International Conference of Regional Card Schemes and Retail Financial Market Infrastructures
- 2 November 2026
- Speech by Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland’s Financial System ConferenceAnnexes
- 30 October 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Research Symposium on AI and the economy
- 29 October 2026
- Keynote address by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an EU T+1 Industry Committee event on “One year to T+1”
- 7 November 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Hironari Akiyama on 4 November 2026
- 24 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Roberto Sommella on 21 October 2026
- 20 October 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Aloysius Widmann on 14 October 2026
- 8 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Daniele Manca on 23 September 2026
- 6 October 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti on 1 October 2026
- 4 November 2026
- This summer's heatwaves, droughts and wildfires were a warning. Their economic impact has so far been limited, but the costs of a warming climate are rising. Europe needs better protection against the financial fallout of climate change and a more flexible energy system that makes the most of clean power.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 3 November 2026
- Despite the expansion of the Single Euro Payments Area, or SEPA for short, many households continue to rely on costly channels for transferring money across borders in Europe. New survey evidence suggests that public awareness of European payment integration is still surprisingly limited.Details
- JEL Code
- F24 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Remittances
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- Has the latest energy shock triggered a new wave of food price increases? To find out, we’ve used innovative AI tools to track changes in price setting by supermarkets. So far, the rise in the repricing momentum has been weaker than in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
- 21 October 2026
- Despite a sharp rise in energy prices in early 2026, the euro area economy has proved resilient. This blog examines how decreased vulnerability to energy shocks, policy support and the global AI upswing have helped cushion the impact, and explores what is needed to sustain that resilience.Details
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 20 October 2026
- Has food inflation lost its bite? In this blog we explain why food inflation has fallen sharply, why new pressures are building from energy and extreme weather, and why many households are still feeling the effects of higher food prices.Details
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 10 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Motivated by the renewed use of industrial policy, this article examines the conditions under which sector-specific interventions can support productivity, competitiveness, and economic resilience. While industrial policy may be justified where market failures or dependencies are well-identified, selective intervention entails risks of distortion through rent-seeking and resource misallocation. These risks are particularly relevant in the EU, where uncoordinated industrial policy is implemented in a multi-country Single Market with heterogeneous institutions and bank-based financial structures. In this setting, industrial policy can be effective only with credible governance and complementary structural reforms.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
L52 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Industrial Policy, Sectoral Planning Methods
O25 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Development Planning and Policy→Industrial Policy
- 9 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Summer 2026 brought repeated episodes of extreme heat to large parts of the euro area. This box assesses the implications for euro area construction output. Survey data from the European Commission show that the share of construction firms citing weather as a factor limiting their activity was exceptionally high, reaching a record level in August and remaining elevated in September. Estimates based on country and sector data suggest that such disruption lowers construction output temporarily, with losses in a given month typically made up in the following month. This summer’s weather is estimated to have lowered construction output by around 0.2% in July, 0.3% in August and 0.1% in September. The overall impact is small and should be short-lived, but the effect of extreme summer weather could become more persistent if extreme heat becomes more frequent and longer-lasting.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
L74 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction→Construction
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 9 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3308Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an assessment of supervisory effectiveness in credit risk using confidential data from ECB Banking Supervision. The analysis covers 8,106 supervisory measures issued and closed between 2016 and 2025. A central contribution is the construction of a measure level indicator of supervisory effectiveness based on large language model (LLM) analysis of supervisory narratives and closure justifications. The indicator captures whether supervisory measures resulted in full remediation of the underlying deficiencies. Using logistic and duration models, we examine the characteristics of findings, measures, and banks associated with remediation outcomes and remediation speed. The results show that multi-faceted findings are a key driver of supervisory outcomes. Measures related to data, reporting, and IT deficiencies are less likely to achieve full remediation and require longer remediation periods. Measures originating from on-site inspections are associated with higher remediation rates and faster closure. Stronger governance is also associated with more successful remediation outcomes.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 9 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The ECB climate change centre (CCC) was established in 2021 to design and steer the ECB’s response to climate-related risks. During its first five years, the centre has evolved from a dedicated coordination hub into a facilitator of the integration of climate and nature-related risks into the ECB’s overall analytical and risk framework. It has thereby supported the institution’s progression from “recognition to integration” in addressing climate and nature-related risks. This article reviews the developments and achievements of the CCC and discusses how it continues to support the climate-related work of the ECB in response to a changing economic, policy and environmental landscape.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 6 November 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 4 November 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 4 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3307Details
- Abstract
- Most empirical models of trend inflation treat it as a latent random walk driven by unobserved shocks, so they cannot say which economic conditions move it. Deep- π*makes the innovations to the trend a possibly nonlinear function of a large number of macroeconomic indicators, estimated with neural networks, so that Shapley values can be used to attribute every movement of the trend to the indicators behind it. Two complementary loss functions define a current trend, which fits inflation today, and a forward-looking trend, which best predicts inflation over the next year. In US data, employment-related variables were the largest contributors to the post-pandemic rise of the current trend. However, the forwardlooking trend rose earlier, with real activity, employment, and money and credit as the main drivers from the start of the pandemic, and peaked eight to twelve months before the current trend. Both trends looked through most of the movements in energy and commodity prices. The contributions of the indicators are nonlinear, with sizeable interactions between them. Re-estimated every month during the surge, the model forecast inflation more accurately than the standard UC-SV model and a random walk, and in early 2021, when professional forecasters expected inflation of 3% or less, the forward-looking trend was already signalling an increase in persistent inflation.
- JEL Code
- C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3306Details
- Abstract
- Government spending effectiveness depends critically on how it is financed. Using state dependent SVAR models and local projections on post-war US data, we show that fiscal expansions financed with short-term debt generate significantly larger output multipliers than those financed with long-term debt. This difference mainly stems from private consumption responses: short-term financing crowds in consumption while long-term financing does not. Torationalize this finding, we construct an incomplete markets model in which households invest in short-term and long-term assets. Short assets provide liquidity/safety services; households can (more readily) use them to cover sudden idiosyncratic spending needs. An increase in the supply of these assets, through a short-term debt-financed government expenditure shock, boosts private consumption. We first show this mechanism analytically in a simplified model, and then quantify it in a carefully calibrated New Keynesian model. We find that fiscal multipliers differ substantially across financing modes, with short-term-financed shocks typically exceeding unity while long-term-financed shocks typically fall below unity. We show these differences persist across monetary and fiscal policy regimes, with important implications for optimal debt management and stimulus design.
- JEL Code
- D52 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Incomplete Markets
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3305Details
- Abstract
- The functioning of sovereign bond markets is closely intertwined with repo markets, where investors finance long positions and source bonds for short sales. We show, theoretically and empirically, how conditions in the cash bond market fundamentally shape repo rates: When demand for cash bonds exceeds available supply, arbitrageurs, notably hedge funds, step in to bridge the gap by shorting bonds and borrowing them in the repo market. These arbitrage strategies drive a wedge between monetary policy rates and repo rates, generating “specialness”. To investigate the drivers of investors’ demand for repo contracts, we obtain regulatory data covering the entire universe of repos backed by German sovereign bonds. We identify the ultimate borrowers and lenders of securities and estimate their demand and supply elasticities for the repo market. Supply, dominated by the public sector, accounts for 87% of the aggregate elasticity. Demand, driven mainly by hedge funds, is strongly inelastic: a 10% increase in borrowing costs reduces their borrowing by only 1%. Despite being among the most price-elastic investors in cash bond markets, hedge funds are inelastic in repo markets because their bond borrowing bridges the preferred-habitat demand in the cash bond market: their elasticity is inherited from their cash-market counterparties rather than being a primitive. As a result, repo rate specialness emerges as the equilibrium price reflecting demand pressures in the cash bond market, of which collateral scarcity from central bank purchases is a special case. Consequently, the same cash bond market imbalances affect both the pricing of safe assets and repos, two markets that are of crucial importance for the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3304Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the European Central Bank’s (ECB) perception of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and how this perception is publicly communicated. We construct a perception index based on ECB speeches over the period 1998–2025. Sentiment in references to non-banks is classified by a large language model that we fine-tune on our own hand-labeled dataset constructed for this purpose. The resulting index reveals a predominantly negative and declining perception over time, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. Negative sentiment is primarily associated with concerns related to financial stability and regulatory needs, whereas positive sentiment reflects the role of non-banks in fostering financial innovation and supporting market functioning. The index is made publicly available for future research.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
- 2 November 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 148Details
- Abstract
- High public debt around the globe has revived concerns that it could impede central banks’ ability to control inflation. This article explains how public debt affects the work of central banks. They can still control inflation, but they must take public debt into account when setting rates, because debt affects the level of interest rates consistent with price stability.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 30 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3303Details
- Abstract
- We use confidential granular data on euro area sovereign bond holdings to examine the heterogeneous behavior of investor types in response to country-specific geopolitical risk shocks. By distinguishing investor categories and accounting for their bond holding dynamics over time, we provide an empirical assessment of how different bond holders react to geopolitics. The analysis employs country-level geopolitical risk indices of the country of sovereign bonds, and applies local projection methods to estimate the dynamic responses of various investor groups to geopolitical risk shocks. In the case of high-debt euro area countries, i.e. Italy, France, Spain, and Belgium, we examine how geopolitical risks may trigger shifts in investor behavior that, in turn, could pose risks to fiscal sustainability.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 30 October 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 64 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 28 September and 7 October 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the third quarter with similar momentum expected for the fourth quarter. Growth was particularly focused in high-value manufacturing and IT services, while growth in consumer spending was relatively weak. Employment dynamics remained subdued, with many firms in cost-cutting mode. Growth in selling prices accelerated in the third quarter, reflecting rising costs owing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but some slowing was expected in the fourth quarter. Contacts continued to anticipate moderating wage growth, but to a lesser degree than in the previous survey round.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 27 October 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 27 October 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
- 26 October 2026
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 26 October 2026
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 19 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3302Details
- Abstract
- General-purpose technologies create large opportunities but make their distribution across firms difficult to assess in real time. We use banks as interpreters of the rise of generative AI by studying lender-specific probability-of-default (PD) estimates for private firms in four large euro-area economies. As public attention to AI rises after ChatGPT, banks lower assessed default risk for borrowers in highly AI-exposed industries by about 5%. The reassessment is weaker for labor-intensive firms and stronger among lenders with pre-existing industry expertise. Yet the favorable industry-level effect is accompanied by a systematic reordering within product markets: banks reassess firms with stronger pre-ChatGPT market positions less favorably relative to their competitors, compressing the risk advantage associated with market leadership. Credit allocation moves in the same direction, with market leaders experiencing relatively lower drawn and committed credit, more relationship exits, and fewer new lenders. The reordering also predicts subsequent bad-credit events beyond banks’ consensus PDs. Internal bank assessments therefore provide a forward-looking measure of how generative AI is expected to reshape competitive risk.
- JEL Code
- D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 19 October 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 401Details
- Abstract
- This paper quantifies the regulatory cost of short-term money market transactions and analyses how post-global financial crisis prudential reforms shape the structure of euro area money markets and the redistribution of central bank reserves. As the stock of reserves declines with the normalisation of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, trading in money markets is becoming increasingly important to banks’ liquidity management. As the related money market volumes rise, regulatory constraints may become a more visible determinant of trading activity and short-term rate formation. Focusing on key Basel III requirements – the liquidity coverage ratio, net stable funding ratio and leverage ratio – the paper derives stylised estimates of the marginal regulatory cost associated with unsecured and secured interbank transactions. The results indicate that unsecured interbank lending entails material regulatory costs, estimated at around 35 basis points for lenders and around 15 basis points for borrowers in the second half of 2025, reflecting capital and stable funding requirements. By contrast, secured transactions such as repurchase agreements benefit from substantially lower costs, typically well below 10 basis points when backed by high-quality collateral. These differences create structural incentives favouring secured over unsecured intermediation, suggesting that repo markets are likely to remain the main channel for reserve redistribution as the stock of reserves declines. The findings imply that post-crisis regulation has contributed to a persistent shift in the structure of euro area money markets, with implications for liquidity distribution and monetary policy implementation.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 16 October 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
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| Deposit facility | 2,50 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,65 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2,90 % |
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