Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
SPEECH
2 June 2026
A European perspective on currency and convergence
Our Economic and Monetary Union will continue to evolve, says Vice-President Boris Vujčić. The past offers a clear lesson: a rules-based convergence framework, with gradual integration, institutional preparation and policy credibility, can support successful monetary integration.
Read the Vice-President's speech
SPEECH
3 June 2026
Ensuring people’s freedom to pay
Cash and digital euro safeguard monetary sovereignty and freedom of choice, says Executive Board member Piero Cipollone at the European Parliament. We are preparing the digital euro technically by signing agreements with standard-setters and selecting participants for the pilot.
Read Mr Cipollone’s speech in 17 euro area languages
THE ECB BLOG
3 June 2026
A tale of two energy crises
The current energy shock is significant and global, but it is also hitting a euro area economy that is more balanced than when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. History and analysis show that context matters a lot for how shocks propagate to inflation.
Read The ECB Blog- 2 June 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 2 June 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 2 June 2026
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
- 1 June 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 1 June 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 29 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 3 June 2026
- Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +
- 3 June 2026
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2026
- 2 June 2026
- Keynote speech by Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, at the conference on Iceland’s Currency Options
- 1 June 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2026 Bank of Korea International Conference on Central Banks and the Future of Money
- 28 May 2026
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Istituto Affari Internazionali
- 31 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 27 May 2026
- 26 May 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Shogo Akagawa and Shiori Goso on 19 May 2026
- 26 May 2026
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi and Reinhard Becker on 21 May 2026
- 11 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 7 May 2026
- 3 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Amanda Mars on 30 April 2026
- 3 June 2026
- The current energy shock is significant and global, but it is also hitting a euro area economy that is more balanced than when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. History and analysis show that context matters a lot for how shocks propagate to inflation.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 2 June 2026
- The euro’s international use has grown in recent years, but largely by circumstance rather than by design. In a more contested global monetary system, Europe needs to act deliberately to strengthen the role of its currency.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 29 May 2026
- Geopolitical shocks influence consumer expectations about inflation and growth. This blog explores how the wars in Ukraine and Iran affect the way households think about the economy and shows how the scars of past experiences amplify reactions to subsequent geopolitical conflicts.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 26 May 2026
- The economic shock caused by the war between the United States and Iran has quickly fed into euro area firms’ expectations. Daily responses to an ECB survey show an immediate increase in expected input costs, selling prices and short-term inflation.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 15 May 2026
- Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) are on the rise. This blog shows how shifts in their borrowing and investment portfolios constrain financing for euro area firms and affect the transmission of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 3 June 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3244Details
- Abstract
- We study how sector-specific fiscal policy propagates in an economy with heterogeneous households and production networks. We develop a multisector New Keynesian model in which input-output linkages interact with differences in households’ marginal propensities to consume (MPCs). We show that fiscal multipliers depend on sectors’ positions in the production network, as network linkages reallocate income across households with heterogeneous consumption responses. We derive an intersectoral Keynesian cross and introduce an MPC-augmented network multiplier that jointly characterize the transmission of fiscal shocks. The interaction between heterogeneous consumption responses and production networks is non-additive: network linkages can either amplify or attenuate fiscal transmission depending on how income is redistributed across households. Fiscal policy is most effective when spending is directed toward labor-intensive, downstream sectors that employ a large share of high-MPC households. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we document substantial sectoral heterogeneity in household balance sheets and in the prevalence of hand-to-mouth households. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, we find sizable variation in sectoral fiscal multipliers and significant distributional effects of government spending.
- JEL Code
- D57 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Input?Output Tables and Analysis
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 3 June 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3243Details
- Abstract
- Using a recent and comprehensive data set covering nine of the most actively traded currencies on a monthly basis from 1995 to 2024, this paper explores the presence and potential drivers of herding behaviour in foreign exchange rate forecasts. The dataset features an average of 40–50 forecasters per currency, representing a broader range of currencies, a longer time frame, and a larger cross section of forecasters than is commonly found in the FX herding literature. Our results provide mixed evidence on herding, where the balance tends towards anti-herding conclusions.While some revision-based tests suggest herding when current consensus forecasts are used, this evidence weakens considerably when lagged information is employed. In contrast, forecast-error based tests, Bernhardt et al. statistics, and over-reaction regressions more often point to anti-herding, particularly at longer horizons. Overall, we interpret the findings as suggesting thatdifferences among forecasters are largely attributable to heterogeneous views, noise, or idiosyncratic error rather than systematic convergence toward the consensus. When alternative explanations for expectation formation or revisions are considered, the main findings remain unchanged across a wide range of measures, including different types of uncertainty and FX predictors such as the forward premium, the real exchange rate, and the depreciation rate.
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- 2 June 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3242Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines whether differences in the composition of investment help explain economic growth disparities in the EU and other advanced economies from 1996 to 2021. While overall investment levels in the EU and the US are broadly similar, the EU invests less in intangible and tangible ICT capital. This difference in composition is associated with part of the EU’s productivity gap with the US. Employing panel fixed effects and local projection methods, we find that intangible and tangible ICT investments -particularly in communications equipment, R&D, and other intellectual property products- are associated with higher GDP per capita growth than other forms of investment. To quantify these differences, we construct a novel investment efficiency ratio that relates the estimated economic growth contribution of each asset to its share in total investment. The results are robust across empirical methods, country samples, and time periods, and reveal substantial heterogeneity: the growth association of ICT-related investment is stronger in countries with higher income levels and greater human capital. Overall, the findings suggest that improving the allocation and efficiency of investment, rather than simply increasing its volume, is key to enhancing long-term growth.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O50 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→General
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents novel analytical indicators to assess the euro’s global appeal derived from newly developed currency breakdowns in the euro area international investment position (IIP). By 2025, the euro accounted for one-third of euro area cross-border assets and two-thirds of liabilities, with the euro’s share of liabilities rising from 54% in 2015 to 66% in 2025, reflecting its growing attractiveness. Factors such as the availability of assets, trade intensity and positive business sentiment towards Europe correlate with this trend. Policies fostering trade openness, safe asset supply, and macroeconomic stability could further enhance the euro’s global role.
- JEL Code
- F20 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the evolving role of euro-denominated sovereign debt as a global safe asset. Using the government basis to estimate convenience yields earned by foreign investors, the results indicate that the foreign convenience yield on German government bonds has increased in recent years. Notably, the majority of this yield is attributable to foreign investors’ preference for euro currency exposure rather than the bonds’ safety or liquidity. However, the foreign convenience yield remains substantially below that of US Treasuries. The analysis further shows that larger and more liquid sovereign debt markets tend to generate higher convenience yields, while the euro’s international reserve currency role may be constrained by the limited supply and fragmentation of highly rated euro area government debt. Although EU bonds have grown rapidly, their temporary and fragmented structure limits their safe-asset properties. Establishing a genuine European safe asset could strengthen the euro’s international role, improve market liquidity and support the financing of European public goods.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2026Details
- Abstract
- Safe-haven currencies provide investors with protection during periods of heightened market uncertainty and financial stress. This box examines the behaviour of the euro during geopolitical and policy-related risk-off episodes in 2025 and early 2026, including tariff announcements and the outbreak of war in the Middle East. While traditional safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen continued to attract inflows during periods of acute stress, the euro also displayed characteristics typically associated with safe-haven assets, reflecting changing perceptions of the euro area’s resilience and external position. The analysis highlights that strengthening and further integrating euro area capital markets would help insulate the euro area from exchange rate volatility and support the euro’s evolution into a stronger global international currency.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EUROAnnexes
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
- 2 June 2026
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
Related- 2 June 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 1 June 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3241Details
- Abstract
- Analyzing more than 300,000 articles across 40 top-tier journals between 2000 and 2022, this study demonstrates that China’s 2006 National Medium-and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology catalyzed a surge in publication volume and citations, propelling China past the United States as the world’s leading producer of scientific research. Controlling for national income, population, and human capital, we find these gains are concentrated in fields explicitly targeted by the government’s plan—physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine—while fields excluded from the plan, such as mathematics and economics, show significantly less growth. Our findings suggest that targeted state-led investment can effectively drive scientific progress, at least within a centrally planned economy.
- JEL Code
- F63 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Economic Development
H52 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Education
I28 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Education and Research Institutions→Government Policy
O38 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Government Policy
P27 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→Performance and Prospects
- 29 May 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 28 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3240Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy asymmetrically affects the response of firms’ employment to an output shock and plays a role in cushioning employment adjustment over the business cycle. Combining annual firm-level data until 2020 with quarterly firm-level data until 2023 and high-frequency monetary policy surprises, we show that for a given change in output, monetary policy influences the extent to which firms hold on to labour, or “labour hoard”. Furthermore, this effect is asymmetric: a restrictive monetary policy reduces labour hoarding behaviour by 2 to 3 times more than an accommodative policy increases it. Finally, we look at the role of financing conditions and firm demographics.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 27 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3239Details
- Abstract
- We examine recent changes in stock market participation using newly available survey data from eleven euro area countries over the period 2020–2024. The evidence points to substantial turnover, with around 10% of non-stockholders entering the market each year, and more than 20% of stockholders exiting. New entrants tend to have lower education, income, financial literacy, and risk tolerance than established investors, indicating a shift in the composition of market participants. We also highlight the growing importance of cryptocurrency investments among retail investors. Overall, these findings shed new light on evolving household financial behavior and its implications for market participation and financial stability.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G51 : Financial Economics
- 27 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3238Details
- Abstract
- We propose a new model in which relationship-specific effects or shocks are identified in a bipartite network under mild covariance restrictions, generalizing the influential Abowd et al. (1999) framework. For example, separate demand shocks are identified for each bank from which a firm borrows. We show how previous approaches break down when confronted with such heterogeneity, while our novel identification strategy yields a simple estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal, under weaker network density assumptions than previous approaches. The methodology performs well in empirically-calibrated simulations. We apply our approach to identify relationship-level credit demand and supply shocks for thousands of firms and banks across nine Euro-area countries and three distinct economic episodes. We formally reject the Abowd et al. (1999) assumptions in nearly every country-period and show that within-firm/bank shock variation is of comparable scale to between firm/bank variation. We document considerable bias in Abowd et al. (1999) style estimates and associated regressions, while finding significant deleterious effects of the post-2022 monetary contraction on exposed firms. We highlight novel heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEWAnnexes
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Related- 27 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Liquidity mismatches in open-ended funds can generate systemic risk when redemption pressures meet illiquid markets, potentially triggering fire-sale spirals and spillovers to banks and other financial institutions. This box uses a system-wide agent-based model of the European financial system to assess the macroprudential impact of liquidity management tools in open-ended investment funds. The analysis evaluates two types of tool applied to second-round redemptions under the adverse scenario of the 2025 EU-wide stress test: redemption gates, which limit withdrawals, and anti-dilution levies, which pass liquidation costs on to redeeming investors. The results suggest that appropriately calibrated redemption gates can redistribute liquidity pressure away from more fragile and less liquid funds towards more resilient funds, thereby reducing the risk of destabilising fire sales while only marginally restricting aggregate liquidity. Anti-dilution levies generate meaningful liquidity transfers to funds facing high liquidation costs and are particularly effective in reducing tail losses in the fund sector. Both tools have limited effects on banks’ capital ratios, indicating that they do not materially constrain banks’ access to liquidity. Overall, the findings suggest that strictly and consistently implemented liquidity management tools can strengthen the resilience of investment funds and reduce systemic spillover risks, although potential incentives for pre-emptive redemptions due to gates or anti-dilution levies remain outside the model’s scope.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The box examines the drivers of euro area investment fund flows into equity markets, with a particular focus on funds investing in currently highly valued US segments. Investment funds play a central role in channelling euro area capital into US equities, making them the key intermediary for assessing investment flows into assets with elevated valuations. Using a BVAR model, the analysis identifies US macroeconomic factors, most notably the AI-driven investment boom, as the dominant driver of recent inflows from the euro area into US equity markets, while deteriorating global risk sentiment has exerted offsetting downward pressure. More accommodative monetary conditions in both the United States and the euro area have supported inflows in recent years. The analysis also shows that flows into US technology equity funds are significantly more sensitive to macroeconomic and monetary shocks, as well as global risk sentiment, than flows into broader equity funds. This makes such funds particularly vulnerable to sudden and disorderly redemptions in the event of adverse developments. The findings highlight the risks to financial stability should these supportive drivers suddenly reverse, particularly through spillovers to euro area markets and wealth effects on euro area investors.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Following more than a decade of persistently depressed valuations, euro area banks’ price-to-book (P/B) ratios have been on an upward curve since late 2022, with the most pronounced rise seen during 2025. The 2025 surge has raised questions about the sustainability of high valuations going forward and the risks for financial stability. This box investigates the main drivers behind the marked increase in euro area bank valuations and the factors explaining the remaining gap with US banks. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the analysis decomposes P/B ratios into macroeconomic, bank-specific and market factors. It finds that higher short-term interest rates (via restored deposit franchise values), improved bank profitability and elevated payout ratios (dividends and share buybacks) were the primary drivers of the 2022-25 increase. The remaining valuation gap with US banks stems mainly from weaker euro area macroeconomic conditions rather than bank fundamentals. While valuations appear broadly aligned with fundamentals, they remain vulnerable to negative growth surprises or rising risk premia.
- JEL Code
- G21, G12, E44 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The box examines euro area investors’ activity in euro area government bond (EGB) markets in response to changes in the slope of the yield curve. Investors are unevenly exposed to different maturities along the EGB yield curve, with non-bank financial institutions playing a particularly important role at the long end. Exploiting granular data on sectoral holdings of sovereign bonds, the analysis shows that euro area investors in EGBs react more strongly to changes in yields in other maturity segments than to changes in yields for the bonds they currently hold. As a result, shifts in the yield curve may trigger portfolio rebalancing across maturities, with non-banks acting as stabilisers of the long end of the curve. The box also documents foreign hedge fund activity in euro area government bond futures markets, highlighting persistent short positions in ultra-long maturities throughout 2025.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Recent geopolitical and geoeconomic events − including the war in the Middle East, with disruptions to oil and energy supplies amplifying uncertainty − have heightened risks to global growth, inflation and financial stability. This box evaluates the impact of geoeconomic risks on euro area financial stability using a new composite indicator that integrates geopolitical, trade and financial market dimensions. Estimates based on a quantile vector autoregression reveal that spikes in geoeconomic risks significantly dampen economic activity, exacerbate financial stress and weaken financial cycles. Persistent geoeconomic stress poses asymmetric downside risks to real GDP growth and financial stability, thus challenging macroeconomic conditions in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This special feature examines policy-assignment dilemmas facing macroprudential authorities when housing markets boom: which instruments work best, on which objectives, and in combination with which other tools? It does so by revitalising Mundell’s Principle of Effective Market Classification, the policy-space analogue of Ricardo’s comparative advantage principle, and by applying it to macroprudential policy. The analysis uses a novel G-search literature-search algorithm and an AI-supported, replicable data-extraction system to assemble estimates of policy-impact parameters from the empirical literature. It then distinguishes standard, instrument-by-instrument evidence, from jointly estimated policy-impact parameters, which are needed to account for rival instruments acting in the same empirical setting. Three findings emerge. First, the results confirm earlier meta-analytic evidence that macroprudential policy moderates household credit growth more clearly than it does house price growth, that tightening has more visible effects than loosening, and that instruments differ in their strengths and weaknesses. Second, joint estimates sharpen policy-assignment analysis by revealing how relative effects change when instruments are assessed together rather than alone. Third, applying the Mundell framework identifies instrument pairings that satisfy necessary conditions for substitutability or complementarity. Overall, the menu of options available to effectively tame housing market booms is wide, provided instruments are assigned to objectives by their relative – not absolute – effectiveness.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 27 May 2026
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Corporate bankruptcies in the euro area have been on the rise, but the aggregate asset quality of banks’ corporate lending has remained broadly stable. This special feature analyses this divergence and its implications for financial stability. It shows that rising bankruptcies may partly be explained by the normalisation of firm turnover since the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit with marked cross-country unevenness. At the same time, firm-level evidence suggests that balance sheet and profitability challenges are concentrated in a vulnerable tail of firms, but have remained stable for the average euro area company. Structural changes in corporate financing, including a declining reliance on bank loans and a larger role for equity, debt securities and non-bank lending, imply that a greater share of corporate risk might be outside the banking system. The analysis also shows that broadly stable aggregate asset quality reflects diverging trends in loan performance across countries and firm sizes, as well as banks’ proactive management of non-performing loans. Overall, it does not find any systematic evidence for banks delaying the recognition of non-performing loans in their loan books. Instead, the analysis indicates that weaker firm fundamentals result in a higher probability of bank exposures being reclassified from performing to non-performing.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
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