Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
MONETARY POLICY
23 July 2026
Our monetary policy statement at a glance
What are the main points in our new monetary policy statement and what mattered to us in our decision? Our visual statement explains this in short and easy-to-understand language.
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MONETARY POLICY
23 July 2026
Latest ECB press conference
President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Boris Vujčić explained the Governing Council’s latest monetary policy decisions and answered questions from journalists at a press conference.
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THE ECB BLOG
24 July 2026
Macroprudential policy and productivity
Amid ongoing concerns over European productivity growth, this ECB Blog post looks at the relationship between macroprudential policy and productivity.
Read The ECB Blog- 24 July 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (19) +
- 24 July 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 July 2026
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexes
- 24 July 2026
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
- 24 July 2026
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexesRelated
- 24 July 2026
- EUREP FAQ
- 24 July 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 July 2026
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at MacGill Summer School 2026 in Glenties, Co. Donegal, Ireland
- 23 July 2026
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 23 July 2026EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 17 July 2026
- Lecture by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Meeting of the Federation of Italian Cooperative Credit Banks (Federcasse)
- 13 July 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Economic Reception of the Deputy Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia in Münster, Germany
- 6 July 2026
- Dinner speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Closing Conference of the European System of Central Banks Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World (ChaMP)[1]
- 15 July 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Élisabeth Montaufray-Bureau on 10 July 2026
- 13 July 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Ricardo Jesus Silva on 29 June 2026
- 2 July 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit and Christophe Jakubyszyn on 24 June 2026
- 25 June 2026
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Mark Schieritz and Kolja Rudzio on 19 June 2026
- 10 June 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Daan Ballegeer and Rutger Betlem on 19 May 2026
- 24 July 2026
- Amid ongoing concerns over European productivity growth, this ECB Blog post looks at the relationship between macroprudential policy and productivity.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 15 July 2026
- Global trade tensions have become a significant source of risk for firms with cross-border business. This post looks at corporate loans and survey data on bank lending conditions to examine how banks have adjusted their lending policies in response.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
B17 : History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches→History of Economic Thought through 1925
- 13 July 2026
- Chinese e-commerce platforms have become increasingly popular in the euro area. An ECB survey shows that shoppers are attracted by low prices and a wide product range. However, concerns about quality, trust and environmental consequences deter non-users.Details
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
L81 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Retail and Wholesale Trade, e-Commerce
- 10 July 2026
- The ECB is upgrading its economic modelling to cope with growing uncertainty in a time of war and energy shocks. This ECB Blog highlights the limitations of the current toolkit and looks at where modelling is now heading.Details
- JEL Code
- C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 7 July 2026
- The ECB is now addressing potential financial losses linked to climate change in its collateral framework. Its new climate factors ensure that firms’ vulnerability to transition shocks are considered when assessing the value of corporate bonds used as collateral in lending to banks.
- 24 July 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 24 July 2026
- BANK TREASURER SURVEY
- 24 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3258Details
- Abstract
- We find that whether US import tariffs have supply-side effects or demand-side effects on US manufacturing sectors depends on where the affected sectors are located in the US production network. Using local projections in a panel of US manufacturing sectors, we find that US import tariffs —including the 2018-19 tariff hikes— led to sectoral output contractions via two different channels: (1) Tariff increases act as negative supply shifters for sectors that use goods from tariff-facing sectors as input in production and thus face rising input costs. (2) Tariff increases act as negative demand shifters for sectors whose customer sectors suffer negative supply side effects due to tariffs and reduce their production. We show that these results are consistent with a stylized production network model featuring complementarities in production. Overall, our finding suggests that tariffs markedly reduce US manufacturing production and that the role of input–output linkages is key for understanding the transmission of import tariff shocks to output and producer prices.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
- 24 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3257Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops an agent-based framework (DeTail) to assess the state-contingent tail effects of releasable macroprudential capital buffers. The model features heterogeneous firms, households, and banks, and a single central bank, all interacting in a fully integrated, stock-flow consistent framework which generates endogenous credit cycles. Using this approach, we evaluate how time-varying capital requirements affect the time-varying distributions of credit growth, firm and household default rates, and bank losses along the credit cycle. Policy experiments show that releasing capital buffers during economic downturns preserves credit supply by improving risky (lower-tail) credit outcomes, reduces both household and firm defaults, and supports macro-financial resilience by limiting tail bank losses. At the same time, capital buffer accumulation during upturns imposes minimal costs and does not significantly constrain lending. These findings support the active use of releasable buffers to mitigate systemic risk and smooth credit cycles without weakening the banking system.
- JEL Code
- C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 24 July 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 24 July 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 24 July 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 24 July 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 76 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 22 June and 1 July 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the second quarter with similar momentum expected for the third quarter. While the war in the Middle East was weighing on consumer spending somewhat, the overall impact on activity seemed limited as some firms benefited from less competition and precautionary stockbuilding. Employment dynamics were rather subdued, with many firms in cost-cutting mode. Selling prices rose more quickly in the second quarter, reflecting the pass-through from rising oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict. The acceleration was less than anticipated in the previous survey round, however, with some slowing expected ahead. Contacts continued to anticipate moderating wage growth.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 23 July 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 23 July 2026
- AMI-SECO REPORTLast updated on 23 July 2026
- 21 July 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 21 July 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
- 20 July 2026
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 20 July 2026
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 15 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3256Details
- Abstract
- We study the evolution of bank branch networks in ten CESEE countries between 2013 and 2021. Using a manually compiled dataset of all branches and their geocoordinates, we document a decline exceeding 30%, with substantial heterogeneity across and within countries. We show that banking market consolidation is a key driver of closures, while profitability and local economic growth mitigate them. Branches in highly urban or very rural areas close more often. Competitive effects are nonlinear: moderate clustering lowers closure risk, but intense competition increases it. These patterns differ markedly across CESEE banking systems during the entire period we analyze.
- JEL Code
- D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
R12 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
- 15 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3255Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the supply and demand drivers of bank deposit pricing in the Euro area during the period 2007–2024. We document that the pass-through of policy rates to sight deposit rates is low, asymmetric, varies across the monetary policy regimes, and decreases over time. We build and estimate an equilibrium model of bank deposit markets, and find that the price sensitivity of depositors exhibits large heterogeneity between households and firms, across countries, and over time. Our estimates suggest that rate-sensitive depositors increasingly switched to alternative, higher-yielding savings products over time, thereby decreasing the average rate-sensitivity of the remaining pool of sight deposits. In turn, banks’ market power over sight deposits increased, thereby accounting for the sluggish increase in overnight deposit rates following the 2022 European Central Bank’s policy rate hikes.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 14 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3254Details
- Abstract
- We study the short-run macroeconomic transmission of a US–China tariff war in an open economy multi-sector New Keynesian model with input–output linkages, sectoral nominal rigidities, and heterogeneous currency invoicing. A reciprocal 10 percentage-point tariff increase generates asymmetric incidence: the tariff-imposing country bears more of the inflationary burden, while the targeted country experiences the larger output contraction. Production networks amplify this contraction by propagating the shock beyond the directly tariffed bilateral margin. Currency invoicing further shapes transmission. Under heterogeneous invoicing, dollar-priced border prices weaken the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates, deepening the contraction in China relative to producer-currency pricing and altering third-country spillovers. The EA response is small in the aggregate, but only because positive trade-diversion margins are offset by weaker demand from China and multilateral adjustments. We then exploit the model’s sectoral structure by imposing tariffs on one Chinese sector at a time. Sectoral incidence is highly concentrated, but aggregate effects cannot be inferred from the directly tariffed sector alone: domestic propagation offsets own-sector gains in the US, reinforces own-sector losses in China, and leaves the EA as a net object shaped by opposing trade margins. The results show that tariff incidence depends jointly on where the tariff lands, how the shock propagates through production networks, and how invoicing governs border-price adjustment. A framework that combines these margins delivers a materially different assessment from one built on bilateral trade shares alone.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 14 July 2026
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 31Details
- Abstract
- We study the role of geoeconomics in shaping globalisation and trade policy. We first review the evolution of world trade since the end of World War II, highlighting the drivers of globalisation and its economic consequences. We then synthesise recent research on geoeconomics, which analyses how countries use trade policy as a tool to pursue geopolitical objectives. Against this background, we argue that the gradual shift in geoeconomic power from the United States toward China since the 2000s has been driving a fragmentation in world trade along geopolitical lines. We provide conceptual policy recommendations for the European Union to navigate an environment characterised by intensifying geopolitical competition.
- JEL Code
- F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F1 : International Economics→Trade
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F5 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
F6 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization
- 13 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3253Details
- Abstract
- We show that an unexpected tightening of the EU Emissions Trading System led high-emission-intensity firms to cut emissions relative to low-intensity peers within the same industry, without reducing output, thereby improving emission efficiency. Effects are stronger for power producers than for manufacturing firms. Examining mergers and acquisitions (M&As), we find that high-intensity manufacturing firms acquire more green targets after the tightening than low-intensity firms, with no change in the overall number of acquisitions, indicating a shift in focus rather than activity. Finally, we show that these green M&As contributed to the observed emission reductions over the study period.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
G34 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Mergers, Acquisitions, Restructuring, Corporate Governance
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 13 July 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 394Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the implications of the provision, in the European Union, of bank-like services, including payment services, by large non‑bank groups (i.e. groups that do not comprise entities with a banking licence), and evaluates policy options to address the emergence of so-called neo-conglomerates by recalibrating the regulatory perimeter. Drawing on five EU case studies (a messaging app white‑label arrangement, a complex multi‑partner “super‑app” model, a systemic payment group, a borderless financial technology firm (fintech) and a bank) – this paper illustrates how financial services may be delivered through digital unbundling and re-bundling, embedded distribution and white‑label partnerships. It maps the business models, licensing structures, fintech partnership chains and data frictions that may obscure group‑wide risks and complicate home‑host supervisory cooperation. The cases were included for illustrative purposes only, and implying no judgement at all on the soundness or governance of the firms concerned, nor on the effectiveness or adequacy of the actions taken by the relevant supervisory authorities. The paper also identifies potential “blind spots” in the regulatory frameworks applicable at the time of writing and misalignments in prudential, conduct and operational objectives. Building on guidance from standard‑setting bodies and international organisations on supervisory approaches to financial innovation, fintech and Big Tech, the paper identifies four priority areas for consideration, with a view to limit regulatory arbitrage and systemic interdependencies, while at the same time preserving innovation. [...]
- JEL Code
- G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
K23 : Law and Economics→Regulation and Business Law→Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 9 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3252Details
- Abstract
- We develop a general equilibrium theory of financial intermediation and its implications for liquidity regulation. The model is built around an agency problem arising from leveraged intermediation: banks finance loan origination with deposits and face moral hazard in risk management, while holding cash mitigates these incentives at the cost of foregone investment returns. Liquidity demand therefore emerges endogenously from incentive considerations rather than from exposure to exogenous funding shocks. In equilibrium, financial experts choose between allocating equity to the banking sector relative to the non-bank financial sector that can provide ex-post liquidity by buying bank assets. Asset prices are determined endogenously in liquidation states, linking banks’ ex ante liquidity choices to market liquidity and the allocation of intermediation across sectors. Comparing the decentralized equilibrium to a planner’s allocation, we show that liquidity regulation mandating higher cash holdings improves incentives within banks but is not sufficient to implement the efficient allocation. In particular, it leads to an inefficiently large banking sector that free-rides on liquidity provision by non-bank investors. Implementing the planner’s allocation requires a second policy instrument, such as limits on bank size or subsidies to equity-financed liquidity provision outside the banking sector.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
D6 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics
- 8 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3251Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies how temporary migration affects macroeconomic fluctuations and the conduct of stabilisation policies using a two-country DSGE model with search-and-matching frictions and endogenous cross-border labour mobility. The analysis shows that migration responds endogenously to both labour market conditions and exchange rate movements, making it an important channel of cross-country adjustment. Labour mobility alters the transmission of shocks in three main ways. First, it redistributes adjustment to productivity shocks across regions, smoothing output fluctuations in receiving economies while producing more nuanced effects in sending economies. Second, it favorably affects policy trade-offs: migration reduces the output costs of monetary tightening, and it mitigates the crowdingout effects of fiscal expansions. Third, it strengthens cross-country spillovers by transmitting labour market shocks across regions and reshaping their domestic propagation. Overall, temporary migration emerges as a powerful but non-neutral adjustment mechanism that affects both the effectiveness of stabilization policies and the distribution of macroeconomic outcomes across integrated economies.
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F16 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Labor Market Interactions
F22 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Migration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 8 July 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL STATEMENT
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2,25 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,40 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2,65 % |
Financial stability
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