Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
13 November 2025
ECB publishes Economic Bulletin
This publication presents the economic and monetary information which forms the basis for the Governing Council’s policy decisions. It is released eight times a year, two weeks after each monetary policy meeting.
Read the new Economic Bulletin
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
12 November 2025
Inequality during the inflation surge
Although income, wealth and consumption inequality indicators stayed broadly stable during the 2021-23 inflation surge, lower-income households faced higher inflation. They were also more vulnerable to rising interest rates through greater reliance on adjustable-rate mortgages.
Read Article 1 of the Economic Bulletin
PODCAST
14 November 2025
Like cash, but digital
What is the digital euro, and how would it work? Don’t we already pay digitally? We separate fact from fiction as Stefania Secola teams up with Aidas Palubinskas from EU Finance Podcast to speak to Executive Board member Piero Cipollone about modernising our money.
Listen to the latest episode of The ECB Podcast- 11 November 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 11 November 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 5 November 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 4 November 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 4 November 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 31 October 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 31 October 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 15 November 2025
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability in London, United Kingdom
- 14 November 2025
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision 2025
- 6 November 2025
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the 26th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference organised by the International Monetary Fund in Washington D.C., USA
- 6 November 2025
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025
- 4 November 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the high-level conference on “Bulgaria on the Doorstep of the Eurozone”, jointly organised by the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance and Българска народна банка (Bulgarian National Bank)
- 11 November 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 4 November 2025
- 10 November 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Luís Reis Ribeiro
- 9 October 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Žanete Hāka-Rikarde and Priit Pokk on 29 September 2025
- 25 September 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, conducted by Francesco Ninfole on 24 September 2025Related
- 26 September 2025
- 26 September 2025
- 17 September 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Anja Ettel and Holger Zschäpitz
- 10 November 2025
- Banks consider the climate performance of firms and buildings in their lending policies. The euro area bank lending survey shows that lower climate risks tend to improve credit conditions. Meanwhile, green investments increase loan demand from firms and households.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 7 November 2025
- Climate risks affect credit ratings. And these, in turn, influence how banks can use securities as collateral to borrow money. This post takes a closer look at how the Eurosystem integrates climate change risks into its own collateral framework, through the credit risk channel.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 4 November 2025
- Many Bulgarians are still hesitant about giving up the Lev on 1 January. Mixed feelings are not uncommon in countries adopting the euro. However, survey data show that support significantly increases once people start using the euro in their daily lives.Details
- JEL Code
- O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
Z18 : Other Special Topics→Cultural Economics, Economic Sociology, Economic Anthropology→Public Policy
- 20 October 2025
- The economist Robert Lucas famously wrote that “Once one starts to think about economic growth, it is hard to think about anything else.” The Nobel committee seems to agree. For the second year in a row, it has chosen to honour work on economic growth. This ECB Blog post looks at the research of this year’s laureates.Details
- JEL Code
- O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
- 17 October 2025
- Banks have bought back over €60 billion of their own shares since 2020, which is a sign of the industry’s confidence. However, share buybacks can also reduce the capital banks have available for potential crises. This blog post examines how euro area banks’ share prices reacted to these buybacks.Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 13 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIESDetails
- Abstract
- This paper introduces a novel methodology to enhance the granularity of Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables. While our general methodology can be applied to any products of interest, we show that the well-documented distortions caused by sectoral aggregation in ICIO tables are particularly pronounced for products with a low substitutability, such as those essential to the green transition (e.g. electric batteries, rare earths). We therefore apply our framework to construct a disaggregated ICIO table that singles out 129 products essential to the energy transition. We then simulate a hypothetical scenario of an East-West supply chain decoupling in green products through a multi-country multi-sector model calibrated with our tailored disaggregated ICIO table. Results reveal substantial economic costs: welfare losses reach 3% and trade between blocs contracts by 20%, even when accounting for trade diversion through neutral countries. We finally quantify how the green supply chain decoupling increases the intensities of greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting how trade barriers on green sectors affect both economic efficiency and climate objectives.
- JEL Code
- C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
- 13 November 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 379Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at how Brexit has affected trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the United Kingdom and the EU. In 2020 the United Kingdom and the EU signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) , establishing the post-Brexit relationship and, in particular, a tariff-free area for goods produced in either of the two economies. However, non-tariff barriers to the trading of goods and services have emerged. Moreover, the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU has affected its attractiveness as an investment target. We analyse recent developments in UK imports and exports with the EU and the rest of the world, in both goods and services, including financial services and tourism. Our estimates suggest that, after the Brexit transition period, UK exports to the EU contracted by almost 40%, due to the emergence of non-tariff barriers with the EU, and the fact that no significant UK trade flows were redirected to other partners. Finally, the analysis of product-level data on German, French, Italian and Spanish exports to the United Kingdom has confirmed the significant negative impact of Brexit, especially for goods highly exposed or highly sensitive to increases in trade costs. The FDI analysis begins with a conjunctural assessment that includes recent trends in EU-UK FDI at a broad level (including sectoral and geographical details), a breakdown of foreign affiliates and an investigation of new FDI projects and jobs in the United Kingdom. The analysis continues with developments in the UK financial sector in terms of the real economy, FDI flows, banks, insurance companies and pension funds, and the evolving status of the United Kingdom as a leading global financial centre. Finally, our analysis also provides an econometric investigation into the potential impact of Brexit on EU-UK FDI, using a gravity model approach. […]
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
- 13 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 13 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box draws on micro price evidence on the frequency of price adjustments to disentangle the roles of sticky and flexible-price items in shaping recent disinflation dynamics in the euro area. Inflation of sticky core items has eased only gradually, while flexible core inflation has returned closer to its pre-pandemic average. Among subcategories, flexible goods drove the surge in non-energy industrial goods inflation, while the persistence of services inflation reflects contributions from both sticky and flexible-price items. The recent persistence of sticky core inflation underscores the roles of past cost shocks and elevated wage pressures. In view of its close link to long-term inflation expectations and the moderation of wage pressures, sticky core inflation is likely to disinflate further.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 13 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Job-to-job transitions in the euro area are a complementary indicator to standard labour market statistics. These flows, defined as transitions between jobs without a spell of unemployment, capture important adjustment mechanisms in addition to the unemployment rate. Using administrative data for Germany, Spain and France, our analysis highlights the procyclical nature of job-to-job transitions: mobility declines during downturns and rises during expansions. Heterogeneity is also evident across occupations and age groups. Lower-skilled workers are generally more mobile, although the share of higher-skilled movers has increased over time. Younger workers exhibit higher mobility because of temporary contracts, whereas the ageing of the labour force has weighed more on job-to-job transitions in recent years. These indicators provide valuable insights for monitoring labour market tightness and wage pressures. However, administrative datasets are available only with significant lags, prompting efforts to develop more timely measures of labour market flows with complementary survey measures.
- JEL Code
- J62 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
- 12 November 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 12 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) – based on a one-off set of questions introduced in the July 2025 wave – suggests that the majority of car purchases in July 2025 were of combustion engine vehicles, followed by hybrid and fully electric cars. Most purchases were of second-hand cars, reflecting concerns about the value of new cars depreciating quickly, particularly among high-income households, as well as limited access to affordable financing options, especially among low-income households. Most respondents in the July 2025 CES wave had no plans to buy a car within the next year, with economic and financial uncertainty and a preference for alternative modes of transportation playing a role, particularly for low-income households. While demand for hybrid cars is expected to increase, interest in fully electric vehicles remains limited. Elevated economic and financial uncertainty suggests that the recovery in car demand will remain gradual and uneven, with the adoption of electric vehicles continuing at a slow pace.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
- 12 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3151Details
- Abstract
- Is there an undesired side-effect of banking regulation on the non-bank sector? How effective is the non-bank transmission channel of monetary policy in the presence of macroprudential policy? Using a state-dependent local projection approach and a rich dataset capturing macroprudential tightening across euro area countries, we present strong cross-country heterogeneity. In financially conservative markets (Germany, France, the Netherlands), tight monetary policy combined with stricter macroprudential measures significantly contracts investment fund assets. Conversely, financial hubs (Luxembourg, Ireland, Italy) experience counterintuitive expansions under the same policy mix. We introduce a simple balance-sheet framework that shows how interacting funding-cost and collateral-constraint channels generate these opposing responses. Further disaggregation shows that equity funds are more vulnerable to joint tightening in conservative systems, while bond funds partly offset contractionary forces in hubs through higher yields.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 12 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3150Details
- Abstract
- We study how survey-based measures of funding needs and availability influence the transmission of euro area monetary policy to investment. We first provide evidence that funding needs are primarily driven by fundamentals, while perceived funding availability captures financial conditions. Using these two measures, we assess how the effectiveness of monetary policy varies with fundamentals and financial conditions. Our results indicate that monetary policy is most effective when firms’ fundamentals are strong. In contrast, firms with favorable financial conditions exhibit a more muted investment response to monetary policy. By combining these two survey-based measures, we construct an indicator of financial constraints and show that financially constrained firms are more sensitive to monetary policy. These findings offer new light on the transmission of monetary policy to corporate investment, emphasizing not only the role of financial conditions, but also the importance of fundamentals, which are beyond the direct influence of central banks
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 12 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy affects household credit heterogeneously through multiple channels. On the supply side, monetary policy tightening is typically thought to have a more adverse effect on lower-income households. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey supports this assumption, with lower-income households reporting tighter constraints on credit access and higher consumer loan rejection rates than households with higher incomes during the recent tightening period. That said, on the demand side, survey responses indicate that lower-income households did not reduce their mortgage loan applications, unlike higher-income households, and in fact even increased their consumer loan applications, during this tightening phase. As a result of these offsetting effects, lower-income households, unlike higher-income ones, did not report a decline in overall loan take-up at a time when borrowing conditions were less favourable. Households in lower-income brackets also increased their share of adjustable-rate mortgage loans during this period.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G51 : Financial Economics
- 12 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article uses data from the Consumer Expectations Survey to examine the inflation episode of 2021-23, the mortgage rate responses and the perceived and actual effects of these developments on inequality. Public perceptions of inequality rose sharply during the inflation surge, with 73% of households reporting an increase. Cost-of-living pressures were cited as the main driver. By contrast, standard measures of income, wealth and consumption inequality calculated using data from the survey remained broadly stable in the euro area between 2022 and 2025. To better understand this divergence, personal inflation rates are constructed from consumption data to identify which income groups faced the greatest challenges in maintaining their living standards. Differences in financial decisions in response to higher interest rates, particularly the timing of loan applications and mortgage fixation periods, are also considered. Together, these mechanisms help to explain why inequality was perceived to have risen even though standard measures remained stable.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G51 : Financial Economics
- 11 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Oil prices have declined in recent months owing to a persistent oversupply in the market. A key driver has been a shift in the stance of OPEC+. The group has been increasing oil supply at a rapid pace despite already low prices, marking a clear departure from its historical role as a market stabiliser. A similar shift in behaviour occurred in 2014, when oil prices declined sharply and remained persistently low. This box evaluates the risk of a similar scenario unfolding today. While the current environment shows signs of continued OPEC-driven downward pressure on oil markets, the conditions that led to the dramatic price collapse in 2014 – in particular, robust non-OPEC supply growth – are not fully present today.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting
- 11 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3149Details
- Abstract
- Banks can grant loans to firms bilaterally or in syndicates. We study this choice by combining bilateral loan data with syndicated loan data. We show that loan size alone does not adequately explain syndication. Instead, banks’ ability to manage risks and firm riskiness drive the choice to syndicate. Banks are more likely to syndicate loans if their risk-bearing capacity is low and if screening and monitoring come at a high cost. Syndicated loans are more expensive and more sensitive to loan risk than bilateral loans. Our findings contradict the hypothesis that reputable borrowers graduate to the syndicated loan market.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 11 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3148Details
- Abstract
- Monetary aggregates provide valuable information about the monetary policy transmission and the business cycle. This paper applies machine learning methods, namely Learning Vector Quantisation (LVQ) and its distinction-sensitive extension (DSLVQ), to identify turning points in euro area M1 and M3. We benchmark performance against the Bry–Boschan algorithm and standard classifiers. Our results show that LVQ detects M1 turning points with only a three-month delay, halving the six-month confirmation lag of Bry–Boschan dating. DSLVQ delivers comparable accuracy while offering interpretability: it assigns weights to the sources of broad money growth, showing that lending to households and firms, as well as Eurosystem asset purchases when present, are the main drivers of turning points in M3. The findings are robust across parameter choices, bootstrap designs, alternative performance metrics, and comparator models. These results demonstrate that machine learning can yield more timely and interpretable signals from monetary aggregates. For policymakers, this approach enhances the information set available for assessing near-term economic dynamics and understanding the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
- 11 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Debate over China’s growing trade surplus has resurfaced amid US-China trade tensions, geoeconomic shifts and global imbalances. This box shows that the surplus reflects two distinct dynamics: persistently weak imports and surging exports. On the import side, structural policies promoting domestic substitution, trade restrictions and sluggish demand have curbed demand for foreign goods. On the export side, subdued domestic demand has led firms to redirect excess production capacity abroad, consistent with the “vent-for-surplus” mechanism. Sectoral evidence shows that this channel outweighs tariff-related trade diversion.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
- 10 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- In the latest round of the European Commission’s biannual Standard Eurobarometer survey, a record 83% of euro area respondents expressed support for the euro – the highest level since the introduction of the single currency. Using the survey microdata, we show that this rise is broad-based across countries and sociodemographic groups, and that cross-country differences have narrowed significantly. Respondents who reported experiencing more of the benefits of the euro – such as easier price comparisons, business, travel or banking – are more likely to view the euro as “a good thing” for the EU. Our findings suggest that euro area citizens have now fully embraced the euro. Sustaining this high level of support will depend on ensuring that the euro continues to deliver tangible benefits and remains fit for a world shaped by digital and geopolitical transformation.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- 10 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3147Details
- Abstract
- Collateral reuse in repo markets helps entities meet short-term funding needs, maintain market efficiency, and anchor collateral valuations, although it creates risks through interconnectedness. A prominent view in the literature is that securities dealers use their market position to obtain temporary free-cash wedges from differences in collateral requirements when reusing collateral, so-called “liquidity windfalls”. By affecting dealers’ funding structures, such windfalls could influence yield curve determination, leverage, and monetary policy transmission. Yet the evidence has been largely theoretical, with limited empirical work. Using a novel, confidential regulatory dataset on European Securities Financing Transactions, this study helps fill that gap. We find that about 11.6% of European repo transaction volume relies on reused securities, averaging more than 49 billion euros per day. Moreover, contrary to the liquidity windfalls hypothesis, dealers do not seem to systematically obtain extra liquidity through collateral reuse in repos.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 10 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3146Details
- Abstract
- We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the passthrough of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 10 November 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 136Details
- Abstract
- Banks trade off short-term losses on deposits against long-term profits from cross-selling other products to new depositors. This strategy is especially attractive when policy rates are low and future sales are more valuable. Therefore, deposit rates move less than policy rates: banks keep them relatively higher when policy rates fall, and relatively lower when policy rates rise. As returns on other financial assets follow policy rates more closely, this makes deposits relatively less attractive for depositors at higher policy rates. Therefore, policy rate hikes lead to a reduction in deposits, which are the key source of refinancing for bank loans. This cuts loan supply, supporting the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
- 7 November 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2,00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2,40 % |
Financial stability
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