Carsten Detken
Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability
- Division
-
Macroprudential Policy
- Current Position
-
Head of Division
- Other current responsibilities
Head, Financial Stability Surveillance Division, Directorate General Financial Stability, ECB, Frankfurt
Chair ESRB Expert Group on Guidance on Setting Countercyclical Capital Buffers
Co-chair ESCB Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) on Early Warning Systems and Systemic Risk Indicators
Chair of FSC/EBA Impact Study Group on Procyclicality of Capital Requirements Workstream
Chair FSC Expert Group on Survey on Credit Terms and Conditions in Euro denominated Securities Financing and OTC Derivatives Markets
- Education
Ph. D. in economics, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, 1994
Visiting scholar University of California Berkeley, 1991/92
Masters in economics (equivalent), University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, 1988
Bachelor in economic sciences (equivalent), University of Münster, Germany, 1986
- Professional experience
since Sept. 2010 Head of Division, Financial Stability Surveillance, ECB, Frankfurt
1998 - 2010 Directorate General Research, ECB, Frankfurt (2005-2010 Senior Adviser to Director General)
1997-1998 Senior Economist, European Monetary Institute, Frankfurt
1995-1997 Associate Director, Swiss Bank Corporation, Basel
2005-2010 Member of CNB Research Advisory Committee
- Awards
CEPR/ESI Prize 2009 for the best Central Bank Research Paper
- 1 May 1999
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3Details
- Abstract
- The paper introduces monetary and fiscal regimes into a Blanchard-Weil overlapping generations model. Contrary to intuition, it is shown that fiscal policy becomes more effective, the less the central bank monetises government debt. Furthermore, there is a degree of debt monetisation at which Ricardian equivalence seems to hold in this 'non-Ricardian' model, as fiscal policy is neutral with respect to agent's net wealth. At the origin of these results are the opposite intergenerational wealth effects of money and debt financing. Since, on average, central bank independence increased through EMU, the analysis suggests that fiscal policy might have become a more powerful instrument for euro-area countries. It is further argued that given the Stability and Growth Pact, governments will find it wise to run budget positions 'close to balance or in surplus' in order to maintain the increased fiscal policy effectiveness.
- JEL Code
- E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 1 April 2000
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 19Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides a broad empirical examination of the major currencies' roles in international capital markets, with a special emphasis on the first year of the euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both from the viewpoint of international financing as well as from the one of international investment activities. Time series of these new measures are presented, including euro aggregates calculated up to five years back in time. The data allow for the identification of changes in the role of the euro (or other main currencies) during 1999 compared to the aggregate of euro predecessor currencies, net of intra-euro area assets/ liabilities, before stage 3 of EMU. A number of key factors determining the currency distribution of international portfolio investments, such as relative market liquidity and relative risk characteristics of assets, are also examined empirically. It turns out that for almost all important market segments for which data are available, the euro immediately became the second most widely used currency for international financing and investment. For the flow of international bond and note issuance it has even slightly overtaken the US dollar in the second half of 1999. The data also suggest that this early supply of euro bonds by non-euro area residents, clearly exceeding the euro-predecessor currency aggregate, is actually absorbed by euro area residents and not y outside investors so far.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
- 1 November 2001
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 89Details
- Abstract
- Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynesian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the stability of inflation to the smoothness of the interest rate path. A policy focusing only on a fixed-horizon inflation forecast neglects the potential effects of this belief on the variance of inflation. The nature of the conflict case is interpreted as evidence for the occasional relevance as well as the general tenuousness of the conflict case. The implementation of our example has led us, furthermore, to illustrate the lack of general applicability of the Bellman principle in dynamic programming for forward-looking models. Our result holds with respect to a more general (Nash-type) concept of optimality
- JEL Code
- C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis
C62 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 1 July 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 160Details
- Abstract
- On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we estimated four different equilibrium exchange rate models for the synthetic euro. Using the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from a statistical and a theoretical perspective. We employed reduced form co-integration models, a structurla VAR, a Natrex model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small-sized euro area wide macro-economic model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high leikelihood for the euro ahving been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 1 July 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 241Details
- Abstract
- The behaviour of the exchange rate under a floating exchange rate regime for a small open economy with perfect capital mobility may appear like a managed float or even a firmer peg. We present a canonical new neo-classical synthesis open economy model where the central bank follows a strategy directed at maintaining price stability. It is shown that the behaviour of the exchange rate depends on the structure of the economy and on the nature of the relevant shocks. In the case of very open economies the exchange rate will look quasi-fixed in response to shocks stemming from the international capital markets. It is also shown that the joined endogeneity of the interest rate and the exchange rate has important implications for the empirical testing of uncovered interest rate parity.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 28 May 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 364Details
- Abstract
- The paper aims at deriving some stylised facts for financial, real, and monetary policy developments during asset price booms by means of aggregating information contained in 38 boom periods since the 1970s for 18 OECD countries. We observe 26 macroeconomic variables in a pre-boom, boom and post-boom phase. Not all booms lead to large output losses. We divide our sample in high-cost and low-cost booms and analyse the differences. High-cost booms are clearly those in which real estate prices and investment crash in the post-boom periods. In general it is difficult to distinguish a high-cost from a low-cost boom at an early stage. However, high-cost booms seem to follow very rapid growth in the real money and real credit stocks just before the boom and at the early stages of a boom. During high-cost booms, rates of change of real estate prices and consumption growth are significantly higher and the investment (especially housing) GDP ratio deviation from trend rises faster over the whole boom period. There is also evidence that high-cost booms are associated with significantly looser monetary policy conditions over the boom period, especially towards the late stage of a boom. We finally discuss the results with regard to the theoretical literature. The looser monetary policy at the later stage of high-cost booms could be interpreted in different ways. It could be that excessively loose monetary policy contributes to extending the boom and exacerbating the real and financial imbalances. Alternatively, observed monetary policy could reflect a desirable, pre-emptive loosening in anticipation of an asset price crash to come.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 16 December 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 420Details
- Abstract
- We show how in a Blanchard-Yaari, overlapping generations framework, perfect substitutability of government bonds in Monetary Union tempts governments to exploit the enlarged common pool of savings. In Nash equilibrium all governments increase their bond financed transfers to current generations (prosperity effect) at the expense of future generations (posterity effect). The resulting deficit bias occurs even if one assumes that before Monetary Union countries had eliminated their deficit bias by designing appropriate domestic institutions. The paper provides a rationale for an increased focus on fiscal discipline in Monetary Union, without the need to assume imperfect credibility of existing Treaty provisions or to refer to extreme situations involving sovereign default. We draw on existing empirical evidence to argue that the degree of government bond substitutability within the European Monetary Union is an order of magnitude larger than in the global economy.
- JEL Code
- D62 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Externalities
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 23 February 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 732Details
- Abstract
- We provide systematic evidence for the association of liquidity shocks and aggregate asset prices during mechanically identified asset price boom/bust episodes for 18 OECD countries since the 1970s, while taking care of the endogeneity of money and credit. Our derivation of liquidity shocks allows for frequent shifts in velocity as they are derived as structural shocks from VARs in growth rates. Residential property price developments and money growth shocks accumulated over the boom periods are able to well explain the depth of post-boom recessions. We further suggest that liquidity shocks are a driving factor for real estate prices during boom episodes. During normal times however, the relative predictive power of liquidity shocks seems to shift from asset price inflation to consumer price inflation. The results only hold for broad money growth based liquidity shocks and not for private credit growth shocks.
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 31 March 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1039Details
- Abstract
- We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. A signalling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have relatively serious real economy consequences. We use a loss function to rank the tested indicators given policy makers' relative preferences with respect to missed crises and false alarms. The paper analyzes the suitability of various indicators as well as the relative performance of financial versus real, global versus domestic and money versus credit based liquidity indicators. We find that global measures of liquidity are among the best performing indicators and display forecasting records, which provide useful information for policy makers interested in timely reactions to growing financial imbalances, as long as aversion against type I and type II errors is not too unbalanced. Furthermore, we explore out-of-sample whether the most recent wave of asset price booms (2005-2007) would be predicted to be followed by a serious economic downturn.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 5 November 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1604Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the usefulness of private credit variables and other macrofinancial and banking sector indicators for the setting of Basel III / CRD IV countercyclical capital buffers (CCBs) in a multivariate early warning model framework, using data for 23 EU Members States from 1982 Q2 to 2012 Q3. We find that in addition to credit variables, other domestic and global financial factors such as equity and house prices as well as banking sector variables help to predict vulnerable states of the economy in EU Member States. We therefore suggest that policy makers take a broad approach in their analytical models supporting CCB policy measures.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 30 June 2014
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 5Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents the analysis underpinning the ESRB Recommendation on guidance on setting countercyclical buffer rates (ESRB 2014/1). The Recommendation is designed to help authorities tasked with setting the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) to operationalise this new macroprudential instrument. It follows on from the EU prudential rules for the banking system that came into effect on 1 January 2014.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 21 August 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1723Details
- Abstract
- This paper aims at providing policymakers with a set of early warning indicators helpful in guiding decisions on when to activate macroprudential tools targeting excessive credit growth and leverage. To robustly select the key indicators we apply the
- JEL Code
- C40 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→General
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 14 November 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 29Details
- Abstract
- We estimate a multivariate early-warning model to assess the usefulness of private credit and other macro-financial variables in predicting banking sector vulnerabilities. Using data for 23 European countries, we find that global variables and in particular global credit growth are strong predictors of domestic vulnerabilities. Moreover, domestic credit variables also have high predictive power, but should be complemented by other macro-financial indicators like house price growth and banking sector capitalization that play a salient role in predicting vulnerabilities. Our findings can inform decisions on the activation of macroprudential policy measures and suggest that policy makers should take a broad approach in the analytical models that support risk identification and calibration of tools.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 31 July 2017
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 194Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents a new database for financial crises in European countries, which serves as an important step towards establishing a common ground for macroprudential oversight and policymaking in the EU. The database focuses on providing precise chronological definitions of crisis periods to support the calibration of models in macroprudential analysis. An important contribution of this work is the identification of financial crises by combining a quantitative approach based on a financial stress index with expert judgement from national and European authorities. Key innovations of this database are (i) the inclusion of qualitative information about events and policy responses, (ii) the introduction of a broad set of non-exclusive categories to classify events, and (iii) a distinction between event and post-event adjustment periods. The paper explains the two-step approach for identifying crises and other key choices in the construction of the dataset. Moreover, stylised facts about the systemic crises in the dataset are presented together with estimations of output losses and fiscal costs associated with these crises. A preliminary assessment of the performance of standard early warning indicators based on the new crises dataset confirms findings in the literature that multivariate models can improve compared to univariate signalling models.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
Annexes- 31 July 2017
- ANNEX
- 31 July 2017
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 13Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents a new database for financial crises in European countries, which serves as an important step towards establishing a common ground for macroprudential oversight and policymaking in the EU. The database focuses on providing precise chronological definitions of crisis periods to support the calibration of models in macroprudential analysis. An important contribution of this work is the identification of financial crises by combining a quantitative approach based on a financial stress index with expert judgement from national and European authorities. Key innovations of this database are (i) the inclusion of qualitative information about events and policy responses, (ii) the introduction of a broad set of non-exclusive categories to classify events, and (iii) a distinction between event and post-event adjustment periods. The paper explains the two-step approach for identifying crises and other key choices in the construction of the dataset. Moreover, stylised facts about the systemic crises in the dataset are presented together with estimations of output losses and fiscal costs associated with these crises. A preliminary assessment of the performance of standard early warning indicators based on the new crises dataset confirms findings in the literature that multivariate models can improve compared to univariate signalling models.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
Related- 31 July 2017
- FINANCIAL CRISES DATABASE
- 24 May 2018
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2018Details
- Abstract
- This special feature presents a tractable, transparent and broad-based cyclical systemic risk indicator (CSRI) that captures risks stemming from domestic credit, real estate markets, asset prices, external imbalances and cross-country spillovers. The CSRI increases on average several years before the onset of systemic financial crises and its level is highly correlated with measures of crisis severity. Model estimates suggest that high values of the CSRI contain information about large declines in real GDP growth three to four years down the road, as it precedes shifts in the entire distribution of future real GDP growth and especially of its left tail. Given its timely signals, the CSRI is a useful analytical tool for macroprudential policymakers to complement other existing analytical tools.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 17 July 2019
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 227Details
- Abstract
- This occasional paper describes how the financial stability and macroprudential policy functions are organised at the ECB. Financial stability has been a key policy function of the ECB since its inception. Macroprudential policy tasks were later conferred on the ECB by the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) Regulation. The paper describes the ECB’s macroprudential governance framework in the new institutional set-up. After reviewing the concept and origins of systemic risk, it reflects on the emergence of macroprudential policy in the aftermath of the financial crisis, its objectives and instruments, as well as specific aspects of this policy area in a monetary union such as the euro area. The ECB’s responsibilities required new tools to be developed to measure systemic risk at financial institution, country and system-wide level. The paper discusses selected analytical tools supporting financial stability surveillance and assessment work, as well as macroprudential policy analysis at the ECB. The tools are grouped into three broad areas: (i) methods to gauge the state of financial instability or prospects of near-term systemic stress, (ii) measures to capture the build-up of systemic risk focused on country-level financial cycle measurement and early warning methods, and (iii) the ECB stress testing framework for macroprudential purposes.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
K23 : Law and Economics→Regulation and Business Law→Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
- Public ChoiceGovernment, Trade Unions and the Macroeconomy
- Applied EconomicsAre German Unions Rocking the Economy? A Reappraisal of the Supply-Side-Political-Business-Cycle Hypothesis
- International FinanceThe Euro and International Capital Markets
- Australian Economic PapersDeterminants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches
- Economic PolicyFeatures of the Euro's Role in International Financial Markets
- European Journal of Political EconomyQuasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity