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Alain Durré

1 April 2003
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 221
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Abstract
This paper empirically tests the expectations hypothesis on both daily EONIA swap rates and monthly EURIBOR rates extended backwards with German LIBOR rates. In addition, we quantify the size of the risk premia in the money market at maturities of one, three, six and nine months. Using implied forward and spot rates in a cointegrated VAR model, we find that the data support the expectations hypothesis in the euro area and in Germany prior to 1999. We find that risk premia are relatively limited at the shorter maturities but more significant at maturities of six and nine months. Furthermore, the results on LIBOR/EURIBOR rates tentatively indicate a downward shift in the structure of the risk premia after the introduction of the euro.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
24 August 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 515
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Abstract
This paper assesses the possible contemporaneous relationship between stock index prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries and over a time period that spans several decades. In a cointegration framework, our analysis looks at three hypotheses. First, is there a long-term contemporaneous relationship between earnings, stock prices and government bond yields? Second, does a deviation from this possible long-run equilibrium impact stock prices such that the equilibrium is restored? Third, do government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship or does the latter only involve stock prices and earnings? We also study the short-term impact of changes in long-term government bond yields on stock prices and discuss our short-term and long-term results in light of the recent developments regarding the so-called Fed model.
JEL Code
C13 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Estimation: General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
23 December 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 988
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Abstract
This paper examines the interday and intraday dynamics of the euro area overnight money market on the basis of an original set of market activity and liquidity proxies constructed from both pre- and post-trade data. The empirical literature provides extensive evidence supporting the rejection of the martingale hypothesis both between days and within days, primarily for interest rates and volatility. We extend this analysis and investigate the seasonality of market activity and liquidity in a market dominated by utilitarian traders. We provide evidence that the Eurosystem's operational framework and calendar effects cause the observed regular patterns. We additionally show that utilitarian trading intensifies at the turn of the reserve maintenance period. The increased uncertainty associated with greater information asymmetry between market participants when reserve requirements become binding lead to a deterioration of market liquidity. Our analysis additionally turns out to be sensitive to the implementation in March 2004 of structural changes to the operational framework and to the more frequent occurrence of fine-tuning operations since October 2004.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
Network
ECB workshop on the analysis of the money market
18 September 2012
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1467
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Abstract
The world has been struck by a mutating systemic financial crisis that is unprecedented in terms of financial losses and fiscal costs, geographic reach, and speed and synchronisation. The crisis from August 2007 to date can be divided into three main phases: the financial turmoil from August 2007 to the collapse of Lehman Brothers; the global financial crisis from September 2008 until spring 2010; and the euro area sovereign debt crisis from spring 2010 to the current period. While each phase has brought significant challenges, the current sovereign debt crisis has been the most critical stage for the euro area. It has brought unprecedented challenges for the monetary union and triggered extraordinary adjustments in both monetary policy and institutional arrangements at the euro area level. The purpose of this article is to outline the features of each crisis phase, to describe the actions taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) during each phase and to explain the rationale for such measures. It also discusses the need to strengthen further the economic union in order to guarantee the sustainability of the monetary union of the euro area. In this respect, it is argued that the recent institutional adjustments made at the EU level would have been necessary independently of the financial crisis.
JEL Code
D78 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making→Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
3 December 2012
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1500
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Abstract
The market-oriented approach promoted by the European Central Bank in the design of its refinancing operations creates incentives to credit insitutions to use actively the interbank market to manage their liquidity needs. In this context, we examine the ability of the overnight segment to guarantee the timely provision of unsecured funds to banks to smoothly absorb their liquidity shocks. This paper specifically focuses on the speed of reversion of transaction costs and available depth to their equilibrium levels in this market for overnight unsecured funds from 4 September 2000 to 31 December 2007. The reported evidence points to time-varying liquidity adjustments and identifies liquidity, market activity and the institutional setting of the ECB’s refinancing operations as significant determinants of the observed resiliency regimes. Our analysis also shows how the speed of mean reversion of market liquidity, by affecting the level and the volatility of the overnight market rate, also affects the anchoring of the yield curve in the euro area.
JEL Code
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C25 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Discrete Regressors, Proportions
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
22 January 2013
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1505
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Abstract
In this paper we propose a new methodology to estimate the volatility of interest rates in the euro area money market. In particular, our approach aims at avoiding the limitations of currently available measures, i.e. the dependency on arbitrary choices in terms of maturity and frequencies and/or of factors other than pure interest rates, e.g. credit risk or liquidity risk. The measure is constructed as the implied instantaneous volatility of a consol bond that would be priced on the EONIA swap curve over the sample period from 4 January 1999 to 20 November 2012. We show that this measure tracks well the historical volatility, in the sense that dividing the consol excess returns by this volatility removes nearly entirely excess of kurtosis and volatility clustering, bringing them close to an ordinary Gaussian white noise.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
16 September 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1965
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Abstract
This paper sheds light on how recent financial tensions in the euro area were ultimately reflected in bank interest rate setting. We make two new contributions. First, we develop a theoretical model capturing banks financing and the rate setting choices. Banks in the model can finance themselves through deposits, on the money market and/or by issuing bonds. Second, we assemble a novel database and put our model to test. Our model extends that of Gambacorta (2004), as we formalise banks' decision to issue debt endogenously. Gambacorta's analysis was conducted for Italian banks and did not include the recent financial crisis. Instead, we focus our analysis on the Great Recession period (July 2007 to October 2014) and euro area banks. From a monetary policy perspective, both our theoretical model and the empirical results provide useful information on the impact of some of the measures introduced by the ECB during the financial crisis. First, the ECB introduced specific measures to alleviate tensions in money markets. To the extent that these measures fostered stability in money markets, and reduced the volatility of money market rates, this paper shows that they were also channelled to bank rates. Second, the ECB also introduced measures to address tensions in bond markets. Our results also show that having access to debt financing has important implications for bank rate setting.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises