European Central Bank Conference

Inflation in a changing economic environment

23 and 24 September 2019

Press room, Großmarkthalle, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

Inflation in a changing economic environment

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, inflation developments have once again become a subject of discussion among researchers and policymakers alike, both in the euro area and beyond. The aim of this conference is to enhance participants’ understanding of the drivers and dynamics of inflation by showcasing frontier research into the topic from academia and policy institutions.

Programme

* An asterisk indicates the author presenting the relevant paper.

Monday, 23 September 2019

10:00
Registration and coffee
10:30

Welcome remarks

Luc Laeven, Director General Research, European Central Bank

 

Session 1: Price setting 1

Chair and discussant: Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago

10:45

Price synchronisation and cost pass-through in multiproduct firms: Evidence from Danish producer prices

  • Luca Dedola*, European Central Bank
    Presentation
  • Mark S. Kristoffersen, Danmarks Nationalbank
  • Gabriel Zullig, Danmarks Nationalbank and University of Copenhagen
11:15

Multiproduct pricing: Theory and evidence from large retailers in Israel

  • Marco Bonomo, Insper
  • Carlos Carvalho, Pontifcia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov*, Bank of Canada
    Presentation
  • Sigal Ribon, Bank of Israel
  • Rodolfo Rigato, Harvard University
12:15

Keynote speech

Chair: Massimo Rostagno, Director General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank

Monetary policy and the link between unemployment and inflation

Silvana Tenreyro, Bank of England and London School of Economics

13:00

Lunch and poster session

 

Session 2: Inflation expectations

Chair and discussant: Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business

14:30

Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from German firms

  • Zeno Enders, University of Heidelberg and CESifo
  • Franziska Hünnekes*, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
    Presentation
  • Gernot J. Müller, University of Tübingen, CEPR, and CESifo
15:00

How does consumption respond to news about inflation? Field evidence from a randomized control trial

  • Olivier Coibion, UT Austin and NBER
  • Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko*, University of California, Berkeley
    Presentation
  • Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank
16:00
Coffee break
16:30

Session 3: Supply side factors

Chair and discussant: Ekaterina Peneva, Federal Reserve Board

16:15

Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries

  • Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank
  • Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank
  • Gerrit Koester*, European Central Bank
    Presentation
  • Eliza M. Lis, European Central Bank
  • Mario Porqueddu, European Central Bank
16:45

Adjustments along the intensive margin and wages: Evidence from the euro area and the US

17:15

Joined at the hip? Inflation and demography through time

  • Mikael Juselius*, Bank of Finland
  • Elöd Takáts, Bank for International Settlements
18:15

End of day one

19:00

Conference dinner - by invitation only

Dinner speech by Philip Lane, member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Tuesday, 24 September 2019

8:45
Coffee
 

Session 4: Sources of price stickiness

Chair and discussant: Klaus Adam, Oxford University

9:00

Pipeline pressures and sectoral inflation dynamics

  • Frank Smets, European Central Bank, Ghent University and CEPR
  • Joris Tielens*, National Bank of Belgium and KU Leuven
    Presentation
  • Jan Van Hove, KU Leuven and KBC
9:30

The flattening of the Phillips Curve and the learning problem of the central bank

10:30

Keynote speech

Chair: Frank Smets, Director General Economics, European Central Bank

A Phillips Curve for the euro area

Laurence M. Ball, Johns Hopkins University
Presentation

11:15
Coffee break
 

Session 5: Price setting 2

Chair and discussant: Volker Hahn, University of Konstanz

11:30

The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments

  • Gee Hee Hong, IMF
  • Matthew Klepacz, College of William and Mary
  • Ernesto Pasten, Central Bank of Chile and Toulouse School of Economics
  • Raphael Schoenle*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Presentation
12:00

Price trends over the product life cycle and the optimal inflation target

13:00

Lunch and poster session

 

Session 6: International dimensions of inflation

Chair and discussant: Natalie Chen, Warwick University

14:30

International food commodity prices and missing (dis)inflation in the euro area

Gert Peersman*, Gent University
Presentation

15:00

Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on French consumer prices

15:30

Asymmetries and non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through

  • Mina Kim*, Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Presentation
  • Logan T. Lewis, Federal Reserve Board
  • Robert J. Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board
16:30

Concluding remarks

Luis De Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank

17:00

End of conference

For those participants interested in furthering their knowledge on the use of big data at the ECB, please stay in the room after the conference for the "ECB data science hackathon award ceremony: Machine learning for automated product classification". The ceremony is scheduled from 17:00-17:30 and will feature short presentations by the winners of the hackathon.


Poster Session 1 (Monday)

Measuring biases in expectation formation

  • Simas Kučinskas*, Humboldt University Berlin
  • Florian S. Peters, University of Amsterdam

Inflation expectations and firm decisions: New causal evidence

  • Olivier Coibion, UT Austin and NBER
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
  • Tiziano Ropele*, Banca d'Italia

Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: Causal evidence from firm-level data

Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility

  • Elmar Mertens*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • James M. Nason, NC State University

The link between labour costs and price inflation in the euro area

  • Elena Bobeica*, European Central Bank
  • Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
  • Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank

Poster Session 2 (Tuesday)

Wages and prices in the euro area: Exploring the nexus

  • Antonio M. Conti, Banca d'Italia
  • Andrea Nobili*, Banca d'Italia

The Pervasive Role of Retail Chains in French Price Dispersion

  • Nicoletta Berardi*, Banque de France
  • Patrick Sevestre, Greqam-AMSE, Université Aix-Marseille

Nonlinear inflation forecasting with recurrent neural networks

  • Anna Almosova*, Humboldt University Berlin
  • Niek Andresen, TU Berlin

Low pass-through and high spillovers in NOEM: What does help and what does not

  • Gregory De Walque*, National Bank of Belgium
  • Thomas Lejeune, Liège University
  • Ansgar Rannenberg, National Bank of Belgium
  • Raf Wouters, National Bank of Belgium

The effects of price endings on price rigidity: Evidence from VAT changes

  • Edward Knotek*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Doron Sayag, Israel Central Bureau of Statistics
  • Avichai Snir, Netaya Academic College

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: Please note that media will be attending and photography and filming activities will take place during the event.

General information

Conference venue

European Central Bank
Main building, Press room, Grossmarkthalle
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main

+49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
info@ecb.europa.eu

Poster session venues

Press room lobby

Conference language

English

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Organising committee

Michael Ehrmann, Marek Jarocinski, Eliza Lis, Christiane Nickel, Chiara Osbat, Andrej Sokol (all European Central Bank)

Contact

Conference email address: inflation-conference2019@ecb.europa.eu

Linda de Leeuw
Directorate General Economics
+49 69 1344 8650
PAC-assistants@ecb.int