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  • European Central Bank Conference

Inflation in a changing economic environment

23 and 24 September 2019

Press room, Großmarkthalle, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, inflation developments have once again become a subject of discussion among researchers and policymakers alike, both in the euro area and beyond. The aim of this conference is to enhance participants’ understanding of the drivers and dynamics of inflation by showcasing frontier research into the topic from academia and policy institutions.


* An asterisk indicates the author presenting the relevant paper.

Monday, 23 September 2019
Registration and coffee

Welcome remarks

Luc Laeven, Director General Research, European Central Bank


Session 1: Price setting 1

Chair and discussant: Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago


Price synchronisation and cost pass-through in multiproduct firms: Evidence from Danish producer prices

  • Luca Dedola*, European Central Bank
  • Mark S. Kristoffersen, Danmarks Nationalbank
  • Gabriel Zullig, Danmarks Nationalbank and University of Copenhagen

Multiproduct pricing: Theory and evidence from large retailers in Israel

  • Marco Bonomo, Insper
  • Carlos Carvalho, Pontifcia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov*, Bank of Canada
  • Sigal Ribon, Bank of Israel
  • Rodolfo Rigato, Harvard University

Keynote speech

Chair: Massimo Rostagno, Director General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank

Monetary policy and the link between unemployment and inflation

Silvana Tenreyro, Bank of England and London School of Economics


Lunch and poster session


Session 2: Inflation expectations

Chair and discussant: Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business


Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from German firms

  • Zeno Enders, University of Heidelberg and CESifo
  • Franziska Hünnekes*, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
  • Gernot J. Müller, University of Tübingen, CEPR, and CESifo

How does consumption respond to news about inflation? Field evidence from a randomized control trial

  • Olivier Coibion, UT Austin and NBER
  • Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko*, University of California, Berkeley
  • Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank
Coffee break

Session 3: Supply side factors

Chair and discussant: Ekaterina Peneva, Federal Reserve Board


Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries

  • Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank
  • Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank
  • Gerrit Koester*, European Central Bank
  • Eliza M. Lis, European Central Bank
  • Mario Porqueddu, European Central Bank

Adjustments along the intensive margin and wages: Evidence from the euro area and the US


Joined at the hip? Inflation and demography through time

  • Mikael Juselius*, Bank of Finland
  • Elöd Takáts, Bank for International Settlements

End of day one


Conference dinner - by invitation only

Dinner speech by Philip Lane, member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Tuesday, 24 September 2019

Session 4: Sources of price stickiness

Chair and discussant: Klaus Adam, Oxford University


Pipeline pressures and sectoral inflation dynamics

  • Frank Smets, European Central Bank, Ghent University and CEPR
  • Joris Tielens*, National Bank of Belgium and KU Leuven
  • Jan Van Hove, KU Leuven and KBC

The flattening of the Phillips Curve and the learning problem of the central bank


Keynote speech

Chair: Frank Smets, Director General Economics, European Central Bank

A Phillips Curve for the euro area

Laurence M. Ball, Johns Hopkins University

Coffee break

Session 5: Price setting 2

Chair and discussant: Volker Hahn, University of Konstanz


The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments

  • Gee Hee Hong, IMF
  • Matthew Klepacz, College of William and Mary
  • Ernesto Pasten, Central Bank of Chile and Toulouse School of Economics
  • Raphael Schoenle*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Price trends over the product life cycle and the optimal inflation target


Lunch and poster session


Session 6: International dimensions of inflation

Chair and discussant: Natalie Chen, Warwick University


International food commodity prices and missing (dis)inflation in the euro area

Gert Peersman*, Gent University


Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on French consumer prices


Asymmetries and non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through

  • Mina Kim*, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Logan T. Lewis, Federal Reserve Board
  • Robert J. Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board

Concluding remarks

Luis De Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank


End of conference

For those participants interested in furthering their knowledge on the use of big data at the ECB, please stay in the room after the conference for the "ECB data science hackathon award ceremony: Machine learning for automated product classification". The ceremony is scheduled from 17:00-17:30 and will feature short presentations by the winners of the hackathon.

Poster Session 1 (Monday)

Measuring biases in expectation formation

  • Simas Kučinskas*, Humboldt University Berlin
  • Florian S. Peters, University of Amsterdam

Inflation expectations and firm decisions: New causal evidence

  • Olivier Coibion, UT Austin and NBER
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
  • Tiziano Ropele*, Banca d'Italia

Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: Causal evidence from firm-level data

Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility

  • Elmar Mertens*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • James M. Nason, NC State University

The link between labour costs and price inflation in the euro area

  • Elena Bobeica*, European Central Bank
  • Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
  • Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank

Poster Session 2 (Tuesday)

Wages and prices in the euro area: Exploring the nexus

  • Antonio M. Conti, Banca d'Italia
  • Andrea Nobili*, Banca d'Italia

The Pervasive Role of Retail Chains in French Price Dispersion

  • Nicoletta Berardi*, Banque de France
  • Patrick Sevestre, Greqam-AMSE, Université Aix-Marseille

Nonlinear inflation forecasting with recurrent neural networks

  • Anna Almosova*, Humboldt University Berlin
  • Niek Andresen, TU Berlin

Low pass-through and high spillovers in NOEM: What does help and what does not

  • Gregory De Walque*, National Bank of Belgium
  • Thomas Lejeune, Liège University
  • Ansgar Rannenberg, National Bank of Belgium
  • Raf Wouters, National Bank of Belgium

The effects of price endings on price rigidity: Evidence from VAT changes

  • Edward Knotek*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Doron Sayag, Israel Central Bureau of Statistics
  • Avichai Snir, Netaya Academic College

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: Please note that media will be attending and photography and filming activities will take place during the event.

General information

Conference venue

European Central Bank
Main building, Press room, Grossmarkthalle
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main

+49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000

Poster session venues

Press room lobby

Conference language



Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Organising committee

Michael Ehrmann, Marek Jarocinski, Eliza Lis, Christiane Nickel, Chiara Osbat, Andrej Sokol (all European Central Bank)


Conference email address:

Linda de Leeuw
Directorate General Economics
+49 69 1344 8650