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Nick Vidalis

22 May 2006
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 45
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Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which the dispersion of real GDP growth rates has changed over the past few years and whether the synchronisation of business cycles has increased among the euro area countries. The study is divided into two main parts. The first focuses on the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries, while the second studies the synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area. The study shows first that dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries in both unweighted and weighted terms has no apparent upward or downward trend during the period 1970-2004 as a whole. Second, since the beginning of the 1990s, the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries has largely reflected lasting trend growth differences, and less so cyclical differences, with some countries persistently exhibiting output growth either above or below the euro area average. Among other things, this might be due to different trends in demographics, as well as to differences in structural reforms undertaken in the past. Thirdly, the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across the euro area countries seems to have increased since the beginning of the 1990s. This finding holds for various measures of synchronisation applied to overall activity and to the cyclical component, for annual and quarterly data, as well as for various country groupings. In particular, the degree of correlation currently appears to be at a historical high. In addition to these main findings, certain other stylised facts on dispersion and synchronisation are presented.
JEL Code
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
4 July 2008
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 90
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Abstract
This study presents some stylised facts on wage growth differentials across the euro area countries in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The study shows that wage growth dispersion, i.e. the degree of difference in wage growth at a given point in time, has been on a clear downward trend since the early 1980s. However, wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries still appears to be higher than the degree of wage growth dispersion within West Germany, the United States, Italy and Spain. Differences in wage growth rates between individual euro area countries and the euro area in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of EMU appear to be positively related to the respective differences between their Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) infl ation and average HICP inflation in the euro area. Conversely, relative wage growth differentials across euro area countries have been somewhat unrelated to relative productivity growth differentials. Some countries combine positive wage growth differentials and negative productivity growth differentials vis-
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General