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Arne Gieseck

Economics

Division

Business Cycle Analysis

Current Position

Adviser

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods,Other Special Topics

Email

Arne.Gieseck@ecb.europa.eu

Education
1993

PhD in Economics (Dr. rer. pol.), University of Essen, Germany

1986

MA in Economics (Diplom-Ökonom), University of Bochum, Germany

Professional experience
2010-

Adviser - Business Cycle Analysis Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany

1999-2009

Principal Economist - EU Countries Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany

1995-1999

Senior Economist - European Economic Research, Standard & Poor's DRI, Frankfurt, Germany

1991-1995

Economist - Business Cycle Analysis Division, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen, Germany

1986-1991

Economist - Chair for Macroeconomics, University of Essen, Germany

4 July 2008
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 90
Details
Abstract
This study presents some stylised facts on wage growth differentials across the euro area countries in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The study shows that wage growth dispersion, i.e. the degree of difference in wage growth at a given point in time, has been on a clear downward trend since the early 1980s. However, wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries still appears to be higher than the degree of wage growth dispersion within West Germany, the United States, Italy and Spain. Differences in wage growth rates between individual euro area countries and the euro area in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of EMU appear to be positively related to the respective differences between their Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) infl ation and average HICP inflation in the euro area. Conversely, relative wage growth differentials across euro area countries have been somewhat unrelated to relative productivity growth differentials. Some countries combine positive wage growth differentials and negative productivity growth differentials vis-
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
17 December 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2343
Details
Abstract
This study extends a thick modelling tool for aggregated euro area real private consumption of de Bondt et al. (2019) to the four largest euro area countries. The suite of error correction models performs well in and out of sample. The ranges and averages of estimated elasticities are, however, sensitive to the exact model specification. We also show that decomposing disposable income into labour, property and transfer income is essential for understanding and forecasting consumption. Finally, substantial crosscountry heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume out of income and wealth components calls for caution when interpreting aggregate euro area developments.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
5 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article focuses on household wealth in the euro area from a macroeconomic perspective. It describes developments in financial and non-financial wealth and their driving forces. The impact of wealth on private consumption is then discussed. It concludes with some monetary policy implications.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
22 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered an unprecedented increase in uncertainty. This box shows how selected measures of uncertainty have evolved during the past few months and exploits the information embedded in the measure of macroeconomic uncertainty to assess its impact on economic activity. This is done by using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model which allows the dynamic effect of an uncertainty shock on the variable of interest to be estimated.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D80 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
2019
Empirical Economics
  • de Bondt, G., Gieseck, A. and Zekaite, Z.
2016
Review of Economics
The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on activity in the euro area
  • Gieseck, A. and Largent, Y.
2006
l’industria -- Rivista di economia e politica industriale
Prospettive per il processo di convergenza economica della Germania Est
  • Gieseck, A.
1995
International Migration Review
Economic Implications of Migration into the Federal Republic of Germany 1988-1992
  • Gieseck, A., Heilemann, U. and von Loeffolholz, H. D.
1994
RWI-Mitteilungen
Ausländische Selbständige in Deutschland: Entwicklung, Struktur, gesamtwirtschaftliche Bedeutung und Perspektiven
  • Gieseck, A. and von Loeffolholz, H. D.
1992
RWI-Mitteilungen
Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Zuwanderung 1988 bis 1991
  • Barabas, G., Gieseck, A., Heilemann, U. and von Loeffelholz, H. D.
1990
Bankarchiv - Zeitschrift für das gesamte Bank- und Börsenwesen
Liberalisierung des (Finanz-) Dienstleistungshandels: Die Uruguay-Runde des GATT
  • Gieseck, A. and Schulte-Mattler, H.
1989
Bankarchiv - Zeitschrift für das gesamte Bank- und Börsenwesen
Internationaler Protektionismus auf Finanzmärkten
  • Gieseck, A. and Schulte-Mattler, H.
1988
WISU - Das Wirtschaftsstudium
Freiwillige Exportselbstbeschränkungsabkommen
  • Gaab, W. and Gieseck, A.
1995
Schriftenreihe des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung, N.F. No. 58
Krisenmanagement in der Stahlindustrie. Eine theoretische und empirische Analyse der europäischen Stahlpolitik 1975 bis 1988
  • Gieseck, A.
1994
Schriftenreihe des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung, N.F. No. 56
Ausländische Selbständige in der Bundesrepublik unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von Entwicklungs-perspektiven in den neuen Bundesländern
  • von Loeffelholz, H. D., Gieseck, A. and Buch, H.
2019
Central Bank of Ireland, Research Technical Paper 15, 2019
  • de Bondt, G., Gieseck, A., Herrero, P. and Zekaite, Z.
1993
RWI Papiere, No. 35
Economic Implications of Migration into the Federal Republic of Germany 1988-1992
  • Gieseck, A., Heilemann, U. and von Loeffelholz, H. D.
1989
Discussion paper, University of Essen, No. 75
Zur Theorie der Protektion bei vollkommener Konkurrenz: Das Standardmodell und seine Weiterentwicklung
  • Gieseck, A.
1987
Beiträge zur angewandten Wirtschaftsforschung, 351/87, Institute of economics and statistics at the University of Mannheim
Methoden zur Quantifizierung nichttarifärer Handelshemmnisse - Ein Überblick
  • Gaab, W. and Gieseck, A.
1987
Beiträge zur angewandten Wirtschaftsforschung, 350/87, Institute of economics and statistics at the University of Mannheim
Zur Äquivalenz von Zöllen und nichttarifären Handelshemmnissen in partialanalytischer Betrachtungsweise
  • Gaab, W. and Gieseck, A.