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Laurent Bilke

30 March 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 463
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Abstract
This paper uses disaggregated CPI time series to show that a break in the mean of French inflation occurred in the mid-eighties and that the 1983 monetary policy shift mostly accounted for it. CPI average yearly growth declined from nearly 11% before the break date (May 1985) to 2.1% after. No other break in the 1973-2004 sample period can be found. Controlling for this mean break, both aggregate and sectoral inflation persistence are stable and low, with the unit root lying far in the tail of the persistence estimates. However, persistence differs dramatically across sectors. Finally, the duration between two price changes (at the firm level) appears positively related with inflation persistence (at the aggregate level).
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C12 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Hypothesis Testing: General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
Network
Eurosystem inflation persistence network
23 June 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 905
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Abstract
We propose a new core inflation measure for the Euro area which places the emphasis on the more lasting, i.e. persistent, price developments at a disaggregated level. The importance of each component of the HICP is reweighted according to its relative persistence, as measured by the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or by an indicator of mean reversion. Unlike headline inflation, our baseline core inflation measure is highly correlated with ECB monetary policy decisions, which could mean that it contains ex ante (pre monetary policy) information on inflationary pressure.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation