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Jacob Ejsing

30 November 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 830
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Abstract
This paper provides a toolkit for extracting accurate information about inflation expectations using inflation-linked bonds. First, we show how to estimate term structures of zero-coupon real rates and break-even inflation rates (BEIRs) in the euro area. This improves the analysis of developments in inflation expectations by providing constant maturity measures. Second, we show that seasonality in consumer prices introduces misleading and quantitatively important time-varying distortions in the calculated BEIRs. We explain how to correct for this in the estimation of the term structure, and thus provide a unified framework for extracting constant maturity BEIRs corrected for seasonality.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
24 August 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1081
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Abstract
There is strong evidence that on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities trade much more liquidly and at significantly higher prices than their off-the-run counterparts. We examine if the same phenomenon is present in the German government bond market whose market structure differ markedly from that of the U.S. Treasury market. In sharp contrast to the U.S. evidence, we find that on-the-run status has only a negligible effect on the liquidity and pricing once other factors have been controlled for. Instead, the highly liquid German bond futures market, whose turnover is many times larger than in the cash market, leads to significant liquidity spillovers. Specifically, we find that bonds which are deliverable into futures contracts are both trading more liquidly and commanding a significant price premium, and that this effect became more pronounced during the recent financial crisis.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
11 December 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1127
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Abstract
As the global banking crisis intensified in the fall of 2008, governments announced comprehensive rescue packages for financial institutions. In this paper, we put the joint response of euro area bank and sovereign CDS premia under the microscope. We find that the bank rescue packages led to a clear structural break in these premia's comovement, which had been rather tight and stable in the weeks preceding the in-tensification of the crisis. Firstly, the packages induced a decrease in risk spreads for banks at the expense of a marked increase in risk spreads for governments. Secondly, we show that in addition to this one-off jump in the levels of CDS spreads, the packages strongly increased the sensitivity of sovereign risk spreads to any further aggravation of the crisis. At the same time, the sensitivity of bank credit risk premia declined and became more sovereign-like, reflecting the extensive government guarantees of banking sector liabilities.
JEL Code
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
14 January 2011
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 122
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Abstract
This paper provides an assessment of the impact of the covered bond purchase programme (hereafter referred to as the CBPP) relative to its policy objectives. The analysis presented on the impact of the CBPP on both the primary and secondary bond markets indicates that the Programme has been an effective policy instrument. It has contributed to: (i) a decline in money market term rates, (ii) an easing of funding conditions for credit institutions and enterprises, (iii) encouraging credit institutions to maintain and expand their lending to clients, and (iv) improving market liquidity in important segments of the private debt securities market. The paper also provides an overview of the investment strategy of the the Eurosystem with regard to the CBPP portfolio.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
L63 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Microelectronics, Computers, Communications Equipment
L86 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Information and Internet Services, Computer Software
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
1 June 2012
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1440
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Abstract
This paper quantifies liquidity and credit premia in German and French government bond yields. For this purpose, we estimate term structures of government-guaranteed agency bonds and exploit the fact that any difference in their yields vis-`a-vis government bonds can be attributed to differences in liquidity premia. Adding the information on risk-free rates, we obtain model-free and model-based gauges of sovereign credit premia, which are an important alternative to the information based on CDS markets. The results allow us to quantify the price impact of so-called
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises