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Florian Neagu

24 September 2013
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1592
Details
Abstract
This paper builds a macro-prudential tool designed to assess whether the banking sector is adequately prepared to orderly withstand losses resulting from normal or stressed macroeconomic and microeconomic scenarios. The link between the banking sector and the real sector is established via the corporate sector channel. The macro-prudential tool consists of a two-step approach. In the first step, we build a model for the probability of default (PD) in the corporate sector, so as to quantify oneyear ahead developments in the quality of banks' corporate loans. The framework is established using micro data, with a bottom-up approach. The second step consists of bridging the PD model with a macroeconomic module in order to capture the feedback effects from the macroeconomic stance into the banking sector, via the corporate sector channel. The macro-prudential tool is tested on the Romanian economy.
JEL Code
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Network
Macroprudential Research Network
24 September 2013
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1591
Details
Abstract
The paper develops a macro-prudential liquidity stress-testing tool in order to capture the possible consequences of a capital outflow (including a run of deposits). The tool includes a feedback from the banking sector to the real economy, incorporates a link between liquidity risk and solvency risk, and is tailored for emerging market features. The stress-testing tool aims to: (i) test the capacity of the banking sector to withstand the sudden stop of capital flows, and to gauge the consequences of the liquidity stress to the solvency ratio; (ii) quantify the liquidity deficit that a central bank should accommodate; (iii) assess the impact on credit supply when the sudden stop occurs; and (iv) support the implementation of an orderly disintermediation process. The macro-prudential tool is applied on the Romanian banking sector.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
Network
Macroprudential Research Network