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Astrid Hirsch

1 May 2002
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 142
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Abstract
The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. To the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of two competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA-based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of each approach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem.
JEL Code
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C59 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Other
18 May 2004
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 361
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Abstract
This paper explains to what extent excess reserves are and should be relevant today in the implementation of monetary policy, focusing on the specific case of the operational framework of the Eurosystem. In particular, this paper studies the impact that changes to the operational framework for monetary policy implementation have on the level and volatility of excess reserves. A 'transaction costs' model that replicates the rather specific intra-reserve maintenance period pattern of excess reserves in the euro area is developed. Simulation results presented not only show that excess reserves may increase considerably under some changes to the operational framework, but also that their volatility and hence unpredictability could.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
13 May 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1052
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Abstract
Liquidity provision through its repo auctions has been one of the main instruments of the European Central Bank (ECB) to address the recent tensions in financial markets since summer 2007. In this paper, we analyse banks' bidding behaviour in the ECB's main refinancing operations (MROs) during the ongoing turmoil in money and financial markets. We employ a unique data set comprising repo auctions from March 2004 to October 2008 with bidding data from 877 counterparties. We find that increased bid rates during the turmoil can be explained by, inter alia, the increased individual refinancing motive, the increased attractiveness of the ECB's tender operations due to its collateral framework and banks' bidding more aggressively, i.e. at higher rates to avoid being rationed at the marginal rate in times of increased liquidity uncertainty.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D44 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Auctions
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C34 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models