PRESS RELEASE

Results of the Q3 2018 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

27 July 2018

  • HICP inflation expectations revised upwards for 2018 and 2019, while unchanged for 2020; longer-term expectations remained stable at 1.9%
  • Real GDP growth expectations revised downwards for 2018 and 2019, but unchanged for 2020
  • Unemployment rate expectations little changed

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2018 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.7% for each of 2018, 2019 and 2020. Compared with the previous survey round, this represents upward revisions of 0.2 percentage point for 2018 and 0.1 percentage point for 2019, but no change to the expectation for 2020. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this SPF, referred to 2023) remained stable at 1.9%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for real growth in euro area GDP averaged 2.2%, 1.9% and 1.6% for 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. This represents downward revisions of 0.2 percentage point for 2018 and 0.1 percentage point for 2019, but no change for 2020. Average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth remained unchanged at 1.6%.

Unemployment rate expectations were little changed, standing at 8.3%, 7.9% and 7.6% for 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, and 7.5% for the longer term.

Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q3 2018

(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

 

 

 

 

 

Survey horizon

2018

2019

2020

Longer term (1)

HICP inflation

 

 

 

 

SPF Q3 2018

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.9

Previous SPF (Q2 2018)

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.9

HICP inflation excluding food and energy

SPF Q3 2018

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.8

Previous SPF (Q2 2018)

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.8

Real GDP growth

SPF Q3 2018

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.6

Previous SPF (Q2 2018)

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.6

Unemployment rate (2)

SPF Q3 2018

8.3

7.9

7.6

7.5

Previous SPF (Q2 2018)

8.3

7.9

7.5

7.4

 

1) Longer-term expectations refer to 2023 for the Q3 2018 SPF and 2022 for the Q2 2018 SPF.

2) As a percentage of the labour force.

 

 

 

 

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Notes:

  • The SPF is conducted on a quarterly basis and gathers expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area for several horizons, together with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding them. The participants in the survey are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union. The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or its staff. The next ECB staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 14 September 2018.
  • Since 2015 the results of the SPF have been published on the ECB’s website. For surveys prior to the first quarter of 2015, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (2002-14: Q1 – February, Q2 – May, Q3 – August, Q4 – November).
  • The SPF for the third quarter of 2018 was conducted between 2 and 6 July. The number of responses was 56.
  • The SPF report and data are available via the SPF webpage and via the ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse.

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