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Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Mean point estimates (all survey rounds)
Survey round Current
calendar year
Next
calendar year
Calendar year
after next
One year ahead Two years ahead Longer term
(five years ahead)
2016 Q4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.41.7
2017 Q1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.41.7
2017 Q2 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.51.7
2017 Q3 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.51.7
2017 Q4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.61.8
2018 Q1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.61.8
2018 Q2 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.61.8
2018 Q3 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.71.8
2018 Q4 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.71.8
2019 Q1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.61.7
2019 Q2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.51.7
2019 Q3 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.41.7
2019 Q4 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.41.6
2020 Q1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.41.6
2020 Q2 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.21.6
2020 Q3 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.11.5
2020 Q4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.11.5
2021 Q1 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.21.5
2021 Q2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.31.6
2021 Q3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.41.7
2021 Q4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.61.8
2022 Q1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.91.9
2022 Q2 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.11.9
2022 Q3 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.9 2.32.2
2022 Q4 4.0 3.9 2.6 3.4 2.42.1
2023 Q1 4.4 2.8 2.3 3.3 2.52.0
2023 Q2 4.9 2.8 2.3 3.2 2.42.0
2023 Q3 5.1 3.1 2.3 3.1 2.42.1
2023 Q4 5.1 2.9 2.2 2.7 2.22.0
2024 Q1 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0
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