Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Mean point estimates (all survey rounds)
Survey round Current
calendar year
Next
calendar year
Calendar year
after next
One year ahead Two years ahead Longer term
(five years ahead)
2016 Q4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.41.7
2017 Q1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.41.7
2017 Q2 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.51.7
2017 Q3 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.51.7
2017 Q4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.61.8
2018 Q1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.61.8
2018 Q2 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.61.8
2018 Q3 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.71.8
2018 Q4 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.71.8
2019 Q1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.61.7
2019 Q2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.51.7
2019 Q3 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.41.7
2019 Q4 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6
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