2018 Q2

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2018 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 56 53 43 47 36 44
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.71.0
0.0 to 0.4% 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.42.3
0.5 to 0.9% 7.7 6.9 6.5 8.4 6.56.8
1.0 to 1.4% 33.1 23.9 20.9 27.3 20.216.1
1.5 to 1.9% 44.6 43.0 39.6 40.1 35.835.5
2.0 to 2.4% 9.6 16.8 20.5 14.8 22.522.7
2.5 to 2.9% 2.1 4.8 6.7 4.2 8.39.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.0 2.43.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.61.5
>4.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 39 38 30 34 28 30
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Mar. 2019 Mar. 2020 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.80.7
0.0 to 0.4% 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.32.7
0.5 to 0.9% 18.8 11.2 8.3 13.7 8.86.8
1.0 to 1.4% 53.2 33.6 25.2 40.2 28.919.5
1.5 to 1.9% 20.9 36.9 40.5 33.9 39.936.1
2.0 to 2.4% 3.0 12.6 17.6 7.9 14.623.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 2.4 4.0 1.2 3.37.1
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.82.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.9
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2022
Mean point estimate 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 57 54 43 49 47 42
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.40.7
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 1.11.5
0.0 to 0.4% 0.3 1.6 3.3 1.8 3.14.3
0.5 to 0.9% 0.8 4.5 9.5 4.3 7.39.5
1.0 to 1.4% 3.8 12.6 20.0 7.0 14.020.3
1.5 to 1.9% 15.9 30.2 32.4 22.0 30.031.2
2.0 to 2.4% 42.7 32.1 22.2 39.1 27.816.8
2.5 to 2.9% 28.2 12.2 7.5 18.7 10.710.2
3.0 to 3.4% 6.0 3.6 2.3 4.2 3.13.3
3.5 to 3.9% 1.5 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.31.0
>4.0% 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.80.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Feb. 2019 Feb. 2020 2022
Mean point estimate 8.3 7.9 7.5 8.0 7.6 7.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6
Number of replies 52 49 38 42 35 36
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Feb. 2019 Feb. 2020 2022
<5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.51.4
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.4 0.92.9
6.0 to 6.4% 0.2 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.47.6
6.5 to 6.9% 0.8 3.5 10.0 2.2 7.712.4
7.0 to 7.4% 2.4 15.6 26.6 9.4 23.618.3
7.5 to 7.9% 16.6 33.3 28.0 32.6 27.524.0
8.0 to 8.4% 48.5 28.0 18.6 32.8 22.517.5
8.5 to 8.9% 24.1 11.8 7.6 14.7 9.68.3
9.0 to 9.4% 5.2 4.3 2.7 5.0 3.33.9
9.5 to 9.9% 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.11.9
10.0 to 10.4% 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.50.8
10.5 to 10.9% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.30.4
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0