2016 Q3

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2016 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 June 2017 June 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 0.3 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 50 49 38 40 34 37
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 June 2017 June 2018 2021
<-1.0% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.50.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 17.0 2.7 1.5 4.2 1.71.0
0.0 to 0.4% 56.3 9.2 5.8 14.5 6.13.5
0.5 to 0.9% 19.0 21.6 13.4 21.0 14.68.4
1.0 to 1.4% 3.9 34.9 28.3 32.3 29.219.5
1.5 to 1.9% 0.8 21.2 30.7 17.2 28.036.2
2.0 to 2.4% 0.2 6.7 13.2 6.5 12.418.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 2.1 4.7 2.3 4.97.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 1.72.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.61.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2016 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2021
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 51 50 38 40 34 36
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2021
<-1.0% 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.30.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.60.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.51.4
0.0 to 0.4% 1.9 4.5 4.4 6.8 4.73.7
0.5 to 0.9% 8.9 13.6 11.3 17.2 12.49.7
1.0 to 1.4% 33.4 32.0 27.8 33.5 28.722.8
1.5 to 1.9% 40.9 29.7 30.9 27.0 30.231.2
2.0 to 2.4% 11.3 12.0 15.0 8.8 14.217.9
2.5 to 2.9% 2.3 3.3 5.5 2.4 4.97.5
3.0 to 3.4% 0.6 1.0 2.2 0.9 1.73.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.51.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.40.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2016 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 May 2017 May 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.8 9.6 8.8
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 46 45 33 36 29 31
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 May 2017 May 2018 2021
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.01.3
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.22.4
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.54.1
7.5 to 7.9% 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.4 1.16.8
8.0 to 8.4% 0.8 2.2 4.9 1.6 3.511.4
8.5 to 8.9% 2.6 5.0 10.5 4.6 10.919.7
9.0 to 9.4% 3.7 15.5 22.4 16.2 21.523.8
9.5 to 9.9% 21.4 32.7 28.5 30.2 29.517.0
10.0 to 10.4% 48.9 27.4 17.2 27.9 18.88.3
10.5 to 10.9% 17.4 11.3 8.5 12.6 8.73.5
11.0 to 11.4% 3.8 2.9 3.0 4.2 3.51.1
11.5 to 11.9% 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.00.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.30.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.20.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0