2015 Q4

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2015 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Sep. 2016 Sep. 2017 2020
Mean point estimate 0.1 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 58 57 52 48 42 44
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Sep. 2016 Sep. 2017 2020
<-1.0% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.70.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 24.1 3.7 1.6 4.4 1.60.9
0.0 to 0.4% 62.6 11.7 5.4 11.6 5.82.9
0.5 to 0.9% 8.1 29.0 12.0 27.7 12.68.3
1.0 to 1.4% 1.7 34.6 26.7 30.2 26.119.3
1.5 to 1.9% 0.4 14.3 33.2 15.8 31.632.1
2.0 to 2.4% 0.1 4.0 14.1 5.9 13.821.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.1 4.99.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 1.93.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.51.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2015 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2020
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 59 58 52 48 42 45
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2020
<-1.0% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.40.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.61.0
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.52.1
0.0 to 0.4% 1.9 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.64.2
0.5 to 0.9% 6.5 8.6 8.4 10.9 9.310.1
1.0 to 1.4% 33.3 23.7 20.3 25.7 22.319.8
1.5 to 1.9% 48.8 38.4 33.9 31.9 32.229.8
2.0 to 2.4% 6.5 17.2 20.1 16.2 17.918.6
2.5 to 2.9% 1.3 4.7 7.4 5.8 7.38.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 1.8 2.6 2.4 3.13.2
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.21.5
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.60.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2015 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Aug. 2016 Aug. 2017 2020
Mean point estimate 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.5 10.1 9.2
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9
Number of replies 54 54 48 41 37 36
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Aug. 2016 Aug. 2017 2020
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.7
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.4
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.42.6
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.75.1
8.0 to 8.4% 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.4 1.711.2
8.5 to 8.9% 0.2 1.5 3.2 0.8 3.615.1
9.0 to 9.4% 1.1 3.0 11.1 2.6 8.318.6
9.5 to 9.9% 2.6 7.7 20.5 8.3 20.718.8
10.0 to 10.4% 3.7 25.9 28.0 25.3 25.812.0
10.5 to 10.9% 26.6 34.8 18.4 34.5 20.56.0
11.0 to 11.4% 51.8 17.0 7.8 17.1 8.83.1
11.5 to 11.9% 9.4 6.6 4.4 7.2 5.41.6
12.0 to 12.4% 3.0 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.71.1
12.5 to 12.9% 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.80.9
13.0 to 13.4% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.41.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.6
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0