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2015 Q2

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2015 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Mar. 2016 Mar. 2017 2019
Mean point estimate 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 57 55 49 49 45 45
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Mar. 2016 Mar. 2017 2019
<-1.0% 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 5.8 0.6 0.5 1.5 0.40.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 28.4 3.8 1.7 5.8 1.91.0
0.0 to 0.4% 46.0 10.3 5.6 14.4 7.23.2
0.5 to 0.9% 14.1 23.1 12.7 26.3 15.47.8
1.0 to 1.4% 3.1 34.9 26.4 27.3 26.618.2
1.5 to 1.9% 1.1 19.0 32.3 16.8 28.731.7
2.0 to 2.4% 0.2 5.5 13.1 4.6 12.322.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 1.9 5.2 1.5 4.79.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 1.74.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.51.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2015 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2019
Mean point estimate 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 58 56 48 48 46 45
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2019
<-1.0% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.30.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.50.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.51.7
0.0 to 0.4% 4.7 3.2 3.3 3.9 3.53.9
0.5 to 0.9% 15.5 8.5 7.7 10.4 8.39.4
1.0 to 1.4% 37.4 21.1 19.0 22.0 20.019.5
1.5 to 1.9% 29.2 35.9 33.8 30.7 32.929.3
2.0 to 2.4% 8.8 19.1 22.3 19.3 19.719.4
2.5 to 2.9% 1.5 6.7 8.3 7.7 8.29.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.33.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.21.8
>4.0% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.70.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2015 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Feb. 2016 Feb. 2017 2019
Mean point estimate 11.1 10.6 10.1 10.8 10.4 9.2
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.9
Number of replies 54 52 45 43 40 38
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Feb. 2016 Feb. 2017 2019
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.6
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.01.3
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.22.3
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.64.9
8.0 to 8.4% 0.1 0.5 2.0 0.2 1.09.7
8.5 to 8.9% 0.3 1.4 5.0 0.6 2.514.9
9.0 to 9.4% 1.4 3.6 12.4 1.8 7.820.6
9.5 to 9.9% 2.5 8.6 17.4 5.5 16.018.8
10.0 to 10.4% 5.2 23.2 20.6 19.1 23.012.4
10.5 to 10.9% 24.7 30.7 21.5 31.2 25.26.2
11.0 to 11.4% 42.1 21.1 11.3 26.0 14.43.5
11.5 to 11.9% 17.3 7.2 4.1 9.9 5.41.6
12.0 to 12.4% 4.8 2.5 2.1 4.3 2.31.4
12.5 to 12.9% 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.21.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.30.6
13.5 to 13.9% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.10.3
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0