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2014 Q3

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2014 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 June 2015 June 2016 2019
Mean point estimate 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 56 55 47 47 41 49
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 June 2015 June 2016 2019
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.20.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.4 1.9 0.8 1.8 0.70.6
0.0 to 0.4% 19.4 6.9 3.8 7.6 4.12.8
0.5 to 0.9% 54.4 24.5 13.5 24.3 14.57.6
1.0 to 1.4% 16.7 38.4 30.1 38.1 29.719.4
1.5 to 1.9% 4.5 19.2 31.5 19.4 31.132.7
2.0 to 2.4% 1.3 5.8 13.1 5.8 13.321.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.4 1.8 4.8 1.9 4.59.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.5 1.34.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.41.5
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2014 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2019
Mean point estimate 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 56 54 44 42 37 45
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2019
<-1.0% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.3 2.0 1.0 2.2 1.11.4
0.0 to 0.4% 9.5 4.8 3.4 6.0 3.83.6
0.5 to 0.9% 32.5 13.8 9.7 19.0 11.69.4
1.0 to 1.4% 39.9 31.2 22.2 32.6 24.421.0
1.5 to 1.9% 10.9 30.3 35.9 24.8 31.531.2
2.0 to 2.4% 2.6 11.2 16.7 9.8 16.818.5
2.5 to 2.9% 1.0 3.7 6.6 3.3 6.68.2
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.4 2.8 0.9 2.53.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.81.6
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.40.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2014 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 May 2015 May 2016 2019
Mean point estimate 11.6 11.3 10.8 11.4 10.9 9.4
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8
Number of replies 52 51 41 37 33 37
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 May 2015 May 2016 2019
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.6
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.2
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.11.8
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.13.3
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.46.9
8.5 to 8.9% 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.810.9
9.0 to 9.4% 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.3 1.816.8
9.5 to 9.9% 0.5 2.3 5.7 1.1 4.118.8
10.0 to 10.4% 2.7 5.3 15.4 4.5 12.716.8
10.5 to 10.9% 4.7 15.2 27.2 14.0 24.210.6
11.0 to 11.4% 20.6 33.2 21.8 30.7 26.47.9
11.5 to 11.9% 48.9 25.1 14.7 28.7 17.03.0
12.0 to 12.4% 14.1 10.8 7.2 14.0 8.31.1
12.5 to 12.9% 6.0 4.8 2.2 4.3 2.70.3
13.0 to 13.4% 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.9 1.20.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.30.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0