2012 Q1

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2012 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2012 2013 Dec. 2012 Dec. 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 57 53 49 46 46
Probability distributions 2012 2013 Dec. 2012 Dec. 2013 2016
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.40.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.00.7
0.0 to 0.4% 1.0 3.2 3.8 3.52.6
0.5 to 0.9% 5.7 9.7 10.2 10.75.8
1.0 to 1.4% 15.9 20.7 19.4 17.913.8
1.5 to 1.9% 33.2 33.1 30.7 31.330.8
2.0 to 2.4% 30.5 20.2 21.7 21.327.4
2.5 to 2.9% 9.8 7.8 8.3 8.911.8
3.0 to 3.4% 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.34.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.21.5
>4.0% 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.40.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2012 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2012 2013 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2016
Mean point estimate -0.1 1.1 0.1 1.2 1.8
Standard deviation 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 57 53 46 42 45
Probability distributions 2012 2013 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2016
<-1.0% 7.0 1.6 5.9 1.40.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 16.4 2.4 11.8 1.90.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 28.5 5.4 24.0 5.61.2
0.0 to 0.4% 25.8 11.8 22.4 13.13.7
0.5 to 0.9% 12.6 23.6 17.7 21.98.9
1.0 to 1.4% 5.9 28.2 10.6 25.719.1
1.5 to 1.9% 2.7 15.6 4.8 17.228.7
2.0 to 2.4% 0.9 7.0 1.6 7.821.2
2.5 to 2.9% 0.2 3.0 0.7 3.610.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.13.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.41.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2012 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2012 2013 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.4 8.8
Standard deviation 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0
Number of replies 54 51 43 40 39
Probability distributions 2012 2013 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2013 2016
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.11.0
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.2
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.46.2
7.5 to 7.9% 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.59.9
8.0 to 8.4% 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.114.7
8.5 to 8.9% 0.4 1.8 1.0 3.116.5
9.0 to 9.4% 1.9 4.6 3.9 7.115.5
9.5 to 9.9% 8.2 13.5 11.1 12.912.7
10.0 to 10.4% 29.2 26.5 25.3 25.710.0
10.5 to 10.9% 35.3 26.0 29.9 23.44.8
11.0 to 11.4% 16.8 13.5 16.9 12.02.2
11.5 to 11.9% 5.0 6.6 6.9 6.51.5
12.0 to 12.4% 2.3 3.7 3.2 3.90.8
12.5 to 12.9% 0.6 1.5 1.2 1.60.6
13.0 to 13.4% 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.80.3
13.5 to 13.9% 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.50.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.20.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0