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2010 Q1

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2010 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2010 2011 Dec. 2010 Dec. 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 61 58 53 50 51
Probability distributions 2010 2011 Dec. 2010 Dec. 2011 2014
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.50.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.70.9
0.0 to 0.4% 6.8 6.3 7.3 5.12.7
0.5 to 0.9% 22.0 14.4 14.8 11.26.6
1.0 to 1.4% 38.6 24.1 27.0 23.115.0
1.5 to 1.9% 22.4 30.1 28.6 27.830.3
2.0 to 2.4% 6.7 15.4 13.6 20.026.2
2.5 to 2.9% 1.7 5.0 4.7 7.111.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.9 1.5 2.14.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.01.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2010 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2010 2011 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2014
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 61 58 50 49 49
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2014
<-1.0% 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.60.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.00.9
-0.5 to -0.1% 3.4 2.4 3.9 2.81.9
0.0 to 0.4% 10.1 5.4 10.2 5.74.2
0.5 to 0.9% 22.5 13.5 20.2 12.48.8
1.0 to 1.4% 32.2 24.7 26.5 23.517.5
1.5 to 1.9% 20.2 27.3 22.0 25.327.5
2.0 to 2.4% 7.0 16.7 10.6 18.522.8
2.5 to 2.9% 2.2 5.6 3.2 7.39.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.6 1.9 0.7 2.03.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.71.8
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.20.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2010 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2010 2011 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.4 8.6
Standard deviation 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8
Number of replies 60 58 49 47 47
Probability distributions 2010 2011 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2011 2014
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14.3
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.17.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.313.9
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.717.6
8.5 to 8.9% 0.5 1.1 0.6 2.216.2
9.0 to 9.4% 1.6 5.0 2.0 6.714.8
9.5 to 9.9% 10.4 14.5 8.9 16.511.4
10.0 to 10.4% 32.1 25.1 25.6 27.06.7
10.5 to 10.9% 31.9 25.4 30.6 20.73.4
11.0 to 11.4% 15.7 15.9 19.5 12.11.3
11.5 to 11.9% 5.5 8.0 7.7 6.90.8
12.0 to 12.4% 1.7 3.3 2.8 3.30.5
12.5 to 12.9% 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.70.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.10.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.50.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.20.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0