2009 Q1

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2009 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2009 2010 Dec. 2009 Dec. 2010 2013
Mean point estimate 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 61 59 54 52 48
Probability distributions 2009 2010 Dec. 2009 Dec. 2010 2013
<0.0% 6.0 2.0 2.5 1.20.3
0.0-0.4% 15.6 4.6 5.7 3.01.3
0.5-0.9% 35.0 11.9 16.6 10.44.5
1.0-1.4% 30.4 25.0 23.3 20.411.9
1.5-1.9% 10.5 30.5 27.8 32.532.9
2.0-2.4% 1.9 18.7 16.6 21.532.4
2.5-2.9% 0.5 5.3 5.8 7.711.7
3.0-3.4% 0.1 1.7 1.4 2.63.7
3.5-3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.61.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2009 2010 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2013
Mean point estimate -1.7 0.6 -1.8 0.9 2.0
Standard deviation 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2
Number of replies 61 60 56 53 50
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2013
<-1.0% 66.8 3.9 64.0 2.60.1
-1.0--0.6% 22.2 6.1 18.4 3.90.4
-0.5--0.1% 7.8 11.5 10.3 8.50.8
0.0-0.4% 2.3 22.1 4.9 15.82.2
0.5-0.9% 0.7 27.6 1.8 26.25.6
1.0-1.4% 0.1 19.2 0.3 25.414.3
1.5-1.9% 0.1 6.7 0.1 11.130.5
2.0-2.4% 0.0 2.1 0.0 5.028.3
2.5-2.9% 0.0 0.6 0.0 1.312.0
3.0-3.4% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.24.0
3.5-3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2009 2010 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2010 2013
Mean point estimate 8.7 9.4 9.1 9.4 7.8
Standard deviation 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9
Number of replies 61 60 54 52 46
Probability distributions 2009 2010 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2010 2013
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.9
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.9
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05.1
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.19.9
7.0-7.4% 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.117.9
7.5-7.9% 7.5 3.5 4.5 4.523.4
8.0-8.4% 24.8 9.9 14.2 11.323.3
8.5-8.9% 33.0 18.4 25.5 19.39.3
9.0-9.4% 23.7 25.1 29.8 21.13.9
9.5-9.9% 7.7 20.0 14.8 20.51.5
10.0-10.4% 1.7 12.9 6.9 13.01.0
10.5-10.9% 0.4 6.3 2.7 5.80.5
>11.0% 0.2 3.1 0.6 3.21.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0