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2008 Q1

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2008 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2008 2009 Dec. 2008 Dec. 2009 2012
Mean point estimate 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Number of replies 53 52 48 45 44
Probability distributions 2008 2009 Dec. 2008 Dec. 2009 2012
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.3
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.51.1
0.5-0.9% 0.4 1.4 0.9 1.72.9
1.0-1.4% 1.9 6.5 7.5 10.19.7
1.5-1.9% 12.4 35.7 35.8 36.437.4
2.0-2.4% 39.5 40.1 37.3 35.534.2
2.5-2.9% 37.3 12.6 14.5 12.010.0
3.0-3.4% 7.8 2.7 3.4 3.03.3
>3.5% 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.71.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2008 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2008 2009 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2012
Mean point estimate 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.1
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 53 52 46 42 41
Probability distributions 2008 2009 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2012
<0.0% 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.30.9
0.0-0.4% 1.2 1.0 1.4 0.91.7
0.5-0.9% 3.2 2.8 3.5 2.83.8
1.0-1.4% 16.9 11.5 22.6 11.28.9
1.5-1.9% 43.6 33.3 40.9 31.828.2
2.0-2.4% 27.2 34.7 23.3 36.137.5
2.5-2.9% 6.1 11.9 6.0 12.212.2
3.0-3.4% 1.1 3.5 1.4 4.04.3
3.5-3.9% 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.61.8
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.10.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2008 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2008 2009 Nov. 2008 Nov. 2009 2012
Mean point estimate 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 52 51 43 41 38
Probability distributions 2008 2009 Nov. 2008 Nov. 2009 2012
<5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.12.5
5.5-5.9% 0.5 1.3 0.7 1.56.3
6.0-6.4% 5.1 8.7 6.9 10.117.3
6.5-6.9% 27.0 30.1 25.8 27.628.5
7.0-7.4% 43.5 37.1 39.4 34.425.4
7.5-7.9% 19.0 17.9 20.3 19.911.9
8.0-8.4% 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.94.9
8.5-8.9% 0.7 0.7 2.6 1.11.6
9.0-9.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.30.7
9.5-9.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.4
10.0-10.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.2
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0