2002 Q3

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2002 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2002 2003 2004 June 2003 June 2004 2007
Mean point estimate 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 53 52 46 50 44 42
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2004 June 2003 June 2004 2007
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.10.4
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.61.5
0.5-0.9% 0.1 1.7 3.3 3.0 3.45.1
1.0-1.4% 1.3 12.6 12.0 16.3 14.716.1
1.5-1.9% 26.0 48.2 40.7 42.4 37.236.8
2.0-2.4% 61.1 28.7 31.5 28.2 31.427.9
2.5-2.9% 10.9 7.1 9.0 7.6 9.49.0
3.0-3.4% 0.5 1.2 2.3 1.5 2.72.5
>3.5% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.50.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2002 2003 2004 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2007
Mean point estimate 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 53 52 46 47 42 41
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2004 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2007
<0.0% 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.80.6
0.0-0.4% 1.8 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.60.9
0.5-0.9% 24.1 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.71.7
1.0-1.4% 51.2 4.0 4.3 7.6 4.54.7
1.5-1.9% 19.0 15.9 12.7 16.1 14.512.8
2.0-2.4% 3.7 30.6 29.4 29.3 30.231.7
2.5-2.9% 0.1 32.7 31.5 27.8 30.331.7
3.0-3.4% 0.0 12.1 14.4 13.0 11.811.4
3.5-3.9% 0.0 2.4 4.2 3.5 4.03.5
>4.0% 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.5 1.51.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2002 2003 2004 May 2003 May 2004 2007
Mean point estimate 8.4 8.1 7.8 8.2 7.8 7.1
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7
Number of replies 49 48 43 43 42 39
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2004 May 2003 May 2004 2007
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.12.6
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.13.8
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.1 0.96.0
6.5-6.9% 0.1 1.0 4.9 0.6 5.518.6
7.0-7.4% 0.4 5.3 13.4 3.5 14.327.2
7.5-7.9% 7.4 23.6 35.1 22.1 34.420.9
8.0-8.4% 54.3 43.2 28.5 43.6 28.411.5
8.5-8.9% 34.3 21.7 11.5 23.7 11.66.5
9.0-9.4% 2.9 4.2 4.1 5.7 3.81.8
9.5-9.9% 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.70.7
10.0-10.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.2
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0