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2000 Q4

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2000 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2000 2001 2002 Sep. 2001 Sep. 2002
Mean point estimate 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 67 67 62 64 59
Probability distributions 2000 2001 2002 Sep. 2001 Sep. 2002
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.2
0.5-0.9% 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 4.7
1.0-1.4% 0.1 6.1 16.1 14.3 17.0
1.5-1.9% 5.9 36.1 43.4 40.2 42.7
2.0-2.4% 76.7 43.2 26.7 31.2 23.9
2.5-2.9% 16.2 11.5 7.9 9.0 8.3
3.0-3.4% 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.5
3.5-3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
>3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2000 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2000 2001 2002 2001 Q2 2002 Q2
Mean point estimate 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 66 66 60 58 53
Probability distributions 2000 2001 2002 2001 Q2 2002 Q2
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
0.5-0.9% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.7
1.0-1.4% 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.4 1.9
1.5-1.9% 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.9 5.2
2.0-2.4% 0.2 6.9 13.6 8.4 14.3
2.5-2.9% 5.9 33.7 37.3 30.1 35.7
3.0-3.4% 50.2 40.5 32.0 39.5 31.7
3.5-3.9% 41.0 13.6 7.8 17.2 8.2
4.0-4.4% 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.5
4.5-4.9% 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
>4.9% 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.1 0.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2000 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2000 2001 2002 Aug. 2001 Aug. 2002
Mean point estimate 9.1 8.5 8.1 8.5 8.1
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 67 67 60 59 53
Probability distributions 2000 2001 2002 Aug. 2001 Aug. 2002
<7.0% 0.0 0.1 2.8 0.1 2.8
7.0-7.4% 0.0 0.7 5.8 1.5 7.0
7.5-7.9% 0.1 6.0 23.7 7.6 24.7
8.0-8.4% 2.0 32.0 32.6 34.9 33.0
8.5-8.9% 22.5 44.1 21.4 37.0 18.0
9.0-9.4% 72.3 13.3 9.5 14.9 9.3
9.5-9.9% 3.1 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.4
10.0-10.4% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4
11.0-11.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
>11.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0