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2000 Q3

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2000 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2000 2001 2002 June 2001 June 2002
Mean point estimate 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 52 52 43 49 43
Probability distributions 2000 2001 2002 June 2001 June 2002
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.8
0.5-0.9% 0.3 1.9 3.6 2.6 4.7
1.0-1.4% 2.3 11.4 14.4 12.3 14.1
1.5-1.9% 30.7 48.5 42.4 47.6 41.0
2.0-2.4% 58.2 30.7 29.0 29.3 30.2
2.5-2.9% 8.1 6.2 7.6 6.8 7.3
3.0-3.4% 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.4
>3.5% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2000 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2000 2001 2002 2001 Q1 2002 Q1
Mean point estimate 3.5 3.2 2.9 3.4 3.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4
Number of replies 51 51 40 48 40
Probability distributions 2000 2001 2002 2001 Q1 2002 Q1
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
0.5-0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5
1.0-1.4% 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 1.4
1.5-1.9% 0.1 1.1 3.6 1.1 3.8
2.0-2.4% 0.6 4.3 14.0 3.5 12.1
2.5-2.9% 7.9 21.5 32.1 15.7 31.8
3.0-3.4% 45.7 46.5 32.2 42.9 32.8
3.5-3.9% 39.6 20.4 11.6 28.2 12.7
4.0-4.4% 5.2 4.2 2.3 5.7 2.4
4.5-4.9% 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.7 0.9
>5.0% 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.8 1.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2000 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2000 2001 2002 May 2001 May 2002
Mean point estimate 9.1 8.4 8.0 8.5 8.1
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 51 51 40 47 40
Probability distributions 2000 2001 2002 May 2001 May 2002
<7.0% 0.0 0.1 5.8 0.1 4.4
7.0-7.4% 0.0 1.8 11.9 0.9 12.6
7.5-7.9% 0.2 10.4 19.6 8.0 20.1
8.0-8.4% 3.7 32.4 29.8 29.7 29.5
8.5-8.9% 26.8 37.8 20.4 39.7 20.7
9.0-9.4% 60.5 13.7 7.6 16.6 9.1
9.5-9.9% 7.8 3.2 3.8 4.1 2.3
10.0-10.4% 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
11.0-11.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
>11.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0