2000 Q2

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2000 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2000 2001 Mar. 2001 Mar. 2002
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 60 55 53
Probability distributions 2000 2001 Mar. 2001 Mar. 2002
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.1
0.5-0.9% 1.0 2.8 4.4 4.3
1.0-1.4% 8.1 16.5 17.8 19.6
1.5-1.9% 55.1 50.4 50.3 44.9
2.0-2.4% 31.9 23.2 22.4 23.2
2.5-2.9% 3.4 5.1 3.6 4.7
3.0-3.4% 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.2
>3.5% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2000 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2000 2001 2000 Q4 2001 Q4
Mean point estimate 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 59 58 53 52
Probability distributions 2000 2001 2000 Q4 2001 Q4
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
0.5-0.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
1.0-1.4% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9
1.5-1.9% 0.4 1.4 0.9 3.1
2.0-2.4% 2.5 6.0 3.9 10.6
2.5-2.9% 16.5 29.4 24.4 37.4
3.0-3.4% 52.2 44.7 43.1 32.3
3.5-3.9% 24.5 14.5 20.1 11.1
4.0-4.4% 3.0 2.6 5.7 3.0
4.5-4.9% 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.8
>5.0% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2000 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2000 2001 Feb. 2001 Feb. 2002
Mean point estimate 9.2 8.6 8.8 8.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 55 54 50 48
Probability distributions 2000 2001 Feb. 2001 Feb. 2002
<7.5% 0.1 0.9 0.6 4.5
7.5-7.9% 0.3 5.9 2.9 14.9
8.0-8.4% 2.2 21.2 13.8 32.6
8.5-8.9% 20.6 45.4 47.4 31.9
9.0-9.4% 59.0 20.0 27.4 10.3
9.5-9.9% 15.3 4.4 5.3 3.0
10.0-10.4% 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.5
10.5-10.9% 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6
11.0-11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
11.5-11.9% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
>12.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0