Sulkhan Chavleishvili
- 22 September 2021
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 87.1Details
- Abstract
- When considering the use of macroprudential instruments to manage financial imbalances, macroprudential policymakers face an intertemporal trade-off between facilitating short-term expected growth and containing medium-term downside risks to the economy. To assist policymakers in assessing this trade-off, in this article we propose a risk management framework which extends the well-known notion of growth-at-risk to consider the entire predictive real GDP growth distribution, with a view to quantifying the macroprudential policy stance. A novel empirical model fitted to euro area data allows us to study direct and indirect interactions between financial vulnerabilities, financial stress and real GDP growth, incorporating non-linear amplification effects among all variables. Our framework can support policymakers by facilitating model-based macro-financial stress tests and model-based assessments of when to adjust macroprudential instruments.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 2 June 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2565Details
- Abstract
- Macro-prudential authorities need to assess medium-term downside risks to the real economy, caused by severe financial shocks. Before activating policy measures, they also need to consider their short-term negative impact. This gives rise to a risk management problem, an inter-temporal trade-off between expected growth and downside risk. Predictive distributions are estimated with structural quantile vector autoregressive models that relate economic growth to measures of financial stress and the financial cycle. An empirical study with euro area and U.S. data shows how to construct indicators of macro-prudential policy stance and to assess when interventions may be beneficial.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 20 May 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2556Details
- Abstract
- Macroprudential policymakers assess medium-term downside risks to the real economy arising from financial imbalances and implement policies aimed at managing those risks. In doing so, they face an inherent intertemporal trade-off between the expected growth and downside risks. This paper reviews the literature on Growth-at-Risk, embeds it in the wider literature on macroprudential policy, and proposes an empirical risk management framework that combines insights from the two literatures, by forecasting the entire real GDP growth distribution with a structural quantile vector autoregressive model. It accounts for direct and indirect interactions between financial vulnerabilities, financial stress and real GDP growth and allows for potential non-linear amplification effects. The framework provides policymakers with a macro-financial stress test to monitor downside risks to the economy and a macroprudential stance metric to quantify when interventions may be beneficial.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models - Network
- Discussion papers
- 18 November 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2330Details
- Abstract
- A quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model, unlike standard VAR, models the interaction among the endogenous variables at any quantile. Forecasts of multivariate quantiles are obtained by factorizing the joint distribution in a recursive structure. VAR identification strategies that impose restrictions on the joint distribution can be readily extended to quantile VAR. The model is estimated using real and financial variables for the euro area. The dynamic properties of the system change across quantiles. This is relevant for stress testing exercises, whose goal is to forecast the tail behavior of the economy when hit by large financial and real shocks.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)