Lukas Reiss
- 11 January 2022
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 288Details
- Abstract
- A key element of the European reform agenda is to simplify the EU fiscal governance framework by moving towards a single debt anchor and a single operational indicator as the basis for formulating fiscal targets and assessing compliance. This paper puts forward an in-depth analysis of two alternative fiscal performance indicators currently used in the EU fiscal framework: the change in the structural balance and the expenditure benchmark. Comparing these two indicators allows us to identify options for the design of a fiscal performance measure – such as assumptions on cyclical adjustment and the inclusion of fiscal variables – and assess their policy impact. Our paper finds that the expenditure benchmark used in the EU fiscal governance framework has advantages over the change in the structural balance. However, it still has scope for improvement. The paper also shows that taking account of interest payments in the expenditure benchmark would make fiscal policy more supportive of the monetary policy stance.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F54 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→Colonialism, Imperialism, Postcolonialism
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 14 August 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2455Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents a framework for analysing the evolution of the structural government deficit estimated using the official EU methodology relevant for the Stability and Growth Pact. The focus of our framework lies in the analysis of the main driving forces of changes in estimated structural government revenue, including the impact of changes to tax legislation, fiscal drag (caused e.g. by the non-indexation of income tax brackets), the composition of economic growth, and a residual. This approach allows us to scrutinise estimates of discretionary revenue measures and fiscal elasticities, both of which play a crucial role in the current EU fiscal governance framework. Between 2010 and 2018, Germany's structural revenue ratio increased substantially even though the estimated impact of changes to tax legislation was close to zero. In most other larger euro area countries, by contrast, structural revenue performed worse than could have been expected based on the estimated impact of discretionary revenue measures. Our approach shows that the composition of economic growth was unfavorable for generating revenue in all analysed countries over this time span. Moreover, in most countries actual revenue grew by less than what could have been expected in view of the discretionary measures taken and developments in the macroeconomic aggregates used to approximate tax bases.
- JEL Code
- H3 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 8 April 2020
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 239Details
- Abstract
- After the financial and economic crisis in Europe, a broad consensus has emerged that a stronger fiscal dimension may be needed to complete the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). This paper analyses the performance of interregional transfers in existing fiscal-federal systems, notably in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain and the United States, and aims to draw lessons for the design of a euro area fiscal instrument. The empirical risk-sharing analysis in this paper suggests that effective cross-regional stabilisation of asymmetric shocks tends to work via direct cash transfers to households, such as unemployment benefits, which are financed out of cyclical central government taxes and social security contributions. This would suggest that a euro area budgetary instrument for stabilisation should be designed as a tool that enhances the automatic stabilisation capacity in the single currency area. At the same time, it seems important that a prospective central stabilisation instrument for the euro area would be integrated in an overall fiscal policy framework that ensures proper incentives for national policymakers.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H77 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→Intergovernmental Relations, Federalism, Secession
- 13 December 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1406Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the public-private wage differentials in ten euro area countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain). To account for differences in employment characteristics between the two sectors, we focus on micro data taken from EU-SILC. The results point to a conditional pay differential in favour of the public sector that is generally higher for women, at the low tail of the wage distribution, in the Education and the Public administration sectors rather than in the Health sector. Notable differences emerge across countries, with Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain exhibiting higher public sector premia than other countries.
- JEL Code
- J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J45 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→Public Sector Labor Markets
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe