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Joern Onken

7 December 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2625
Details
Abstract
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our baseline specification, a one percentage point deviation of u from u* for one year has a long-run effect of 0.16 points on both variables. When we allow asymmetry, we find, perhaps surprisingly, that decreases in u have larger long-run effects than increases in u.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital