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Giovanni di Iasio

27 June 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2671
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Abstract
We build a model to simulate how the euro area market-based financial system may function under stress. The core of the model is a set of representative agents reflecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding, and derivatives markets and face solvency and liquidity constraints on their behaviour. We illustrate the model's behaviour in a two-layer approach. In Layer 1 the deterioration in the outlook for the corporate sector triggers portfolio reallocation by the model's agents. Layer 2 adds a rating downgrade shock where a fraction of investment grade corporate bonds is downgraded to high yield, which creates further rebalancing pressure and price movements. The model predicts (i) asset flows (buying and selling of marketable securities) across agents and (ii) balance sheet losses. It also provides quantitative evidence on equilibrium effects of the macroprudential regulation of nonbanks, which we illustrate by varying investment fund cash buffers.
JEL Code
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
13 June 2022
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS
Macroprudential Bulletin Issue 17, 2022
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Abstract
This special focus discusses how different segments of the financial sector, i.e. banks, insurers, pension funds, investment funds and hedge funds, react to stress scenarios similar to some of those observed at the onset of the pandemic. In our framework, different financial intermediaries interact in asset, funding and derivatives markets, and face solvency and liquidity constraints. The model is calibrated to the euro area and simulates two shocks, namely a deterioration in the corporate outlook and a large-scale rating downgrade of corporate bonds. It estimates balance-sheet losses for the main euro area financial sectors and the change in prices of marketable financial assets.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G288 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
7 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2545
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Abstract
We build a three-period model to investigate market failures in the market-based financial system. Institutional investors (IIs), such as insurance companies and pension funds, have liabilities offering guaranteed returns and operate under a risk-sensitive solvency constraint. They seek to allocate funds to asset managers (AMs) that provide diversification when investing in risky assets. At the interim date, AMs that run investment funds face investor redemptions and liquidate risky assets and/or deplete cash holdings, if available. Dealer banks can purchase risky assets, thus providing market liquidity. The latter ultimately determines equilibrium allocations. In the competitive equilibrium, AMs suffer from a pecuniary externality and hold inefficiently low amounts of cash. Asset fire sales increase the overall cost of meeting redemptions and depress risk-adjusted returns delivered by AMs to IIs, forcing the latter to de-risk. We show that a macroprudential approach to (i) the liquidity regulation of AMs and (ii) the solvency regulation of IIs can improve upon the competitive equilibrium allocations.
JEL Code
D62 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Externalities
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
3 March 2020
FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE ARTICLE
Financial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2020
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Abstract
Brexit will result in a substantial structural change to the EU’s financial architecture over the coming years. It could be particularly significant for derivatives clearing, investment banking activities and securities and derivatives trading as the reliance on service provision by UK financial firms is more pronounced in these areas and the provision of such services is currently linked to the EU passporting regime. At the same time, the precise overall impact of Brexit on the EU’s future financial architecture in general – and on these specific areas in particular – is difficult to predict at this stage, and may change over time. This special feature makes a first attempt at analysing some of the factors that may affect the EU’s financial architecture post-Brexit. It focuses on areas which currently show strong reliance on the UK and are of particular relevance for the ECB under its various mandates.
2 July 2019
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 226
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Abstract
This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse scenarios on economies and the financial system as a whole by acknowledging a broad set of interactions and interdependencies between banks, other market participants, and the real economy. Our results highlight the importance of the starting level of bank capital, bank asset quality, and banks’ adjustments for the propagation of shocks to the financial sector and real economy.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation