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Fernando González

1 January 2003
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 209
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Abstract
This paper derives a general framework for collateral risk control determination in repurchase transactions or repos. The objective is to treat consistently heterogeneous collateral so that the collateral taker has a similar risk exposure whatever the collateral pledged. The framework measures the level of risk with the probability of incurring a loss higher than a pre-specified level given two well-known parameters used to manage the intrinsic risk of collateral: marking to market and haircuts. It allows for the analysis in a self-contained closed form of the way in which different relevant factors interact in the risk control of collateral (e.g. marking to market frequency, level of volatility of interest rates, time to capture and liquidity risk, probability of default of counterparty, etc.). The framework, which combines the recent theoretical literature on credit and interest risk, provides an alternative quantifiable and objective approach to the existing more ad-hoc rule-based methods used in hair cut determination.
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
22 June 2004
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 16
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Abstract
This paper investigates the potential impact of the growing influence of the opinions of credit rating agencies (CRAs) on market dynamics. This impact can be seen as a consequence of the information content of the ratings themselves or indirectly as a consequence of the "hardwiring" of ratings into regulatory rules, management mandates, bond covenants, etc. Rating agencies who strive to provide credit assessments that remain broadly stable through the course of the business cycle have been themselves affected as the growing reliance on rating mean that they are increasingly expected to satisfy a widening range of constituencies with different and sometimes conflicting interests. They have responded to this challenge largely by adding more products to their traditional product palette but also through modifications in the rating process. It is however too early to say whether these changes mean a fundamental shift in their approach to credit risk measurement.
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
22 December 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 569
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Abstract
We assess monetary convergence preceding the implementation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) through Kalman filtering estimates of the risk premium of eleven forward exchange rates of European and non-European currencies. Since all participating currencies are in effect identical from inception of a currency union, the convergence process to such an identical status should be reflected in the participating currencies' risk premiums prior to monetary union implementation. Starting from this assumption, we show the paths followed by the participating currencies towards monetary union. We find that the co-movements of risk premiums among the preceding European Monetary System (EMS) currencies differ across time periods but display a tendency to convergence to the German mark's risk premium up to EMU implementation. The paper also shows a clear pattern of asymmetry of the participating currencies in relation to the German mark.
JEL Code
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
10 July 2007
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 65
Details
Abstract
The aims of this paper are twofold: first, we attempt to express the threshold of a single "A" rating as issued by major international rating agencies in terms of annualised probabilities of default. We use data from Standard & Poor's and Moody's publicly available rating histories to construct confidence intervals for the level of probability of default to be associated with the single "A" rating. The focus on the single "A" rating level is not accidental, as this is the credit quality level at which the Eurosystem considers financial assets to be eligible collateral for its monetary policy operations. The second aim is to review various existing validation models for the probability of default which enable the analyst to check the ability of credit assessment systems to forecast future default events. Within this context the paper proposes a simple mechanism for the comparison of the performance of major rating agencies and that of other credit assessment systems, such as the internal ratings-based systems of commercial banks under the Basel II regime. This is done to provide a simple validation yardstick to help in the monitoring of the performance of the different credit assessment systems participating in the assessment of eligible collateral underlying Eurosystem monetary policy operations. Contrary to the widely used confidence interval approach, our proposal, based on an interpretation of p-values as frequencies, guarantees a convergence to an ex ante fixed probability of default (PD) value. Given the general characteristics of the problem considered, we consider this simple mechanism to also be applicable in other contexts.
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
C49 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Other