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Daniel L. Thornton

23 December 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 984
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Abstract
The phrase "liquidity effect" was introduced by Milton Friedman (1969) to describe the first of three effects on interest rates caused by an exogenous change in the money supply. The lack of empirical support for the liquidity effect using monthly and quarterly data using various monetary and reserve aggregates led Hamilton (1997) to suggest that more convincing evidence of the liquidity effect could be obtained using daily data - the daily liquidity effect. This paper investigates the implications of the daily liquidity effect for Friedman's liquidity effect using a comprehensive model of the Fed's daily operating procedure. The evidence indicates that it is no easier to find convincing evidence of a Friedman's liquidity effect using daily data than it has been using lower frequency data.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
Network
ECB workshop on the analysis of the money market
23 December 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 977
Details
Abstract
Despite its important role in monetary policy and finance, the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates has received virtually no empirical support. The empirical failure of the EH was attributed to a variety of econometric biases associated with the single-equation models used to test it; however, none account for it. This paper analyses the EH by focusing on its fundamental tenet - the predictability of the short-term rate. This is done by comparing h-month ahead forecasts for the 1- and 3-month Treasury yields implied by the EH with the forecasts from random-walk, Diebold and Lei (2006), and Duffee (2002) models. The evidence suggests that the failure of the EH is likely a consequence of market participants' inability to predict the short-term rate.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
Network
ECB workshop on the analysis of the money market