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Christine Rifflart

15 October 2021
We analyse the elasticity of the household consumption expenditure (HCE) deflator to the exchange rate, using world input-output tables (WIOT) from 1995 to 2019. In line with the existing literature, we find a modest output-weighted elasticity of around 0.1. This elasticity is stable over time but heterogeneous across countries, ranging from 0.05 to 0.22. Such heterogeneity mainly reflects differences in foreign product content of consumption and intermediate products. Direct effects through imported consumption and intermediate products entering domestic production explain most of the transmission of an exchange rate appreciation to domestic prices. By contrast, indirect effects linked to participation in global value chains play a limited role. Our results are robust to using four different WIOT datasets. As WIOT are data-demanding and available with a lag of several years, we extrapolate a reliable estimate of the HCE deflator elasticity from 2015 onwards using trade data and GDP statistics.
JEL Code
C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts