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Andrea Gazzani

11 July 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1933
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Abstract
Housing prices are subject to boom and bust episodes with long-lasting deviation from fundamentals. By considering a present value housing price model under noisy information, I study the macroeconomic implications of movements in housing prices related (news) and not related (noise) to future fundamentals. I provide empirical evidence of the sizable macroeconomic effects of news and noise shocks. Following Forni et al. (2014, 2016), I identify news and noise shocks through a non-standard VAR technique which exploits future information. In the US, news shocks are the main driver of the housing market at low frequencies, but in the short-medium horizon noise shocks explain a large share of the variability in housing prices, residential investment and GDP. Historically, many housing cycles are driven by noise. The empirical findings are consistent with a model
JEL Code
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
22 June 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2571
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Abstract
Labor productivity is more procyclical in OECD countries with lower employment volatility. To capture this new stylized fact, we propose a business cycle model with employment adjustment costs, variable hours and labor effort. We show that, in our model with variable effort, greater labor market frictions are associated with procyclical labor productivity as well as stable employment. In contrast, the constant-effort model fails to replicate the observed cross-country pattern in the data. By implication, labor market deregulation has a greater effect on the cyclicality of labor productivity and on the relative volatility of employment when effort can vary.
JEL Code
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General