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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2023

European Central Bank and The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research

Thursday, 31 August and Friday, 1 September 2023
European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main - Hybrid event

The Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (ECB) will host the conference. It will be held in person at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt am Main. The conference will bring together top researchers from academia, central banks, and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation.

PHOTOS

High-quality images of the Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2023 are available via Flickr.

Programme

Times are Central European Time (CET)

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 31 August
8:30

Registration and coffee

9:00

Welcome and opening remarks

Isabel Schnabel, European Central Bank

 

Session 1: Phillips Curve

Chair: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank

9:20

Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle

  • Giovanni Nicolò*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Francesco Bianchi, Johns Hopkins University
  • Dongho Song, Johns Hopkins University

Discussant: Marta Bańbura, European Central Bank

10:05

It’s Baaack: The Inflation Surge of 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve

  • Gauti B. Eggertsson*, Brown University

  • Pierpaolo Benigno, Universität Bern

Discussant: Antonella Trigari, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

10:50

Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

  • Luca Gagliardone*, New York University

  • Mark Gertler, New York University

  • Simone Lenzu, New York University

  • Joris Tielens, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique

Discussant: Jonathon Hazell, London School of Economics and Political Science

11:35

Break

12:00

Keynote speech: The Market for Inflation Risk

Chair: Óscar Arce, European Central Bank

Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics and Political Science

13:00

Lunch break and Poster session 1

 
The Expectation of Others
  • Mathieu Pedemonte*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
  • Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • John Leer, Morning Consult
  • Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
 
Consumption Categories, Household Attention, and Inflation Expectations: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy

Alexander Dietrich*, Danmarks Nationalbank

 
Building Central Bank Credibility: The Role of Forecast Performance
  • Michael McMahon, University of Oxford
 
Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees
  • Sebastian Link*, ifo Institute and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
  • Lukas Buchheim, Technische Universität Dortmund
  • Sascha Möhrle, ifo Institute and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
 
Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
  • Edward S. Knotek II*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Keshav Dogra, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Sebastian Heise, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • Robert W. Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Raphael S. Schoenle, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Wändi Bruine de Bruin, University of Southern California
 

Session 2: Inflation Effects of Supply Disruptions

Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

14:30

The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruption on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Evidence

  • Yiliang Li*, University of International Business and Economics
  • Xiwen Bai, Tsinghua University
  • Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, University of Pennsylvania
  • Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford

Discussant: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

15:15

Global Supply Chain Pressures, Inflation, and Implications for Monetary Policy

  • Dennis Bonam*, De Nederlandsche Bank
  • Guido Ascari, De Nederlandsche Bank and Università degli Studi di Pavia
  • Andra Smadu, De Nederlandsche Bank

Discussant: Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank

16:00

Break

 

Session 3: Multisector Models and Inflation after COVID-19

Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank

16:15

Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market

  • Sebastian Heise*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Mary Amiti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Fatih Karahan, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Ayşegül Şahin, University of Texas at Austin

Discussant Ekaterina Peneva, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

17:00

What Drives Inflation? Lessons from Disaggregated Price Data

Elisa Rubbo*, University of Chicago

Discussant: Mishel Ghassibe, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi) and Barcelona School of Economics

17:45

End of first conference day

Friday, 1 September
9:30

Registration and coffee

 

Session 4: Inflation and Price Dispersion

Chair: Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank

10:30

Expected Inflation and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search

Francisca Sara-Zaror*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Gaetano Gaballo, École des hautes études commerciales de Paris

11:15

Inflation Distorts Relative Prices: Theory and Evidence

  • Henning Weber*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim
  • Andrey Alexandrov, Princeton University

Discussant: Viacheslav Sheremirov, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

12:00

Poster session 2

 
Striking a Bargain: Narrative Identification of Wage Bargaining Shock
  • Žymantas Budrys*, Center for Excellence in Finance and Economic Research (CEFER), Bank of Lithuania and Vilnius University
  • Mario Porqueddu, European Central Bank
  • Andrej Sokol, Bloomberg LP
 
Feeling the Heat: Extreme Temperatures and Price Stability
  • Miles Parker*, European Central Bank
  • Donata Faccia, European Central Bank
  • Livio Stracca, European Central Bank
 
Firming up Price Inflation
  • Lena Anayi*, Bank of England
  • Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
  • Philip Bunn, Bank of England
  • Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham
  • Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham
  • Ivan Yotzov, Bank of England 
 
Matching Price Stickiness and MPC: Monetary Policy Implications
  • Ting Lan, International Monetary Fund
  • Lerong Li, University of International Business and Economics
  • Minghao Li*, Peking University
 
Euro Area Inflation and a New Measure of Core Inflation

Claudio Morana*, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, CefES, RCEA-Europe ETS, CeRP at the Collegio Carlo Alberto

 
Nowcasting Consumer Price Inflation Using High-Frequency (Scanner Data): Evidence from Germany
  • Elisabeth Wieland*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Günter W. Beck, Universität Siegen
  • Kai Carstensen, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
  • Jan-Oliver Menz, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Richard Schnorrenberger, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
 
The Asymmetric Effects of Weather Shocks on Euro Area Inflation
  • Catalina Martinez Hernandez*, European Central Bank
  • Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
  • Friderike Kuik, European Central Bank
12:30

Lunch break

 

Session 5: Expectations

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

13:30

House Price Expectations and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data Inflation Expectations and Macro Dynamics under Finite Horizon Planning

  • Roshni Tara*, University of Surrey
  • Vedanta Dhamija, University of Surrey
  • Ricardo Nunes, University of Surrey

Discussant: Francesca Monti, Université catholique de Louvain

14:15

Inflation Expectations and Macro Dynamics under Finite Horizon Planning

  • Edward Herbst*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Christopher Gust, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • David Lopez-Salido, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Stéphane Dupraz, Banque de France

15:00

Looking through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma

  • Thomas Carter*, Bank of Canada
  • Paul Beaudry, Bank of Canada and University of British Columbia
  • Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia

Discussant: Jane Ryngaert, University of Notre Dame

15:45

Closing remarks

Loretta J. Mester, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

16:30

End of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet/intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please inform us in advance of the Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2023. The event may be filmed and the video recording (or parts of it) may be published on the internet / intranet.

High-quality images of the event are available via Flickr.

Organisation

Venue

European Central Bank
Euro Tower, Room C2.01
Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Language

English

Registration

To register for virtual participation ahead of the conference, please use the following WebEx links: Day 1, Day 2.

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Organising committee
  • Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank
  • Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Sarah Holton, European Central Bank
  • Peter Karadi, European Central Bank
  • Edward Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
  • Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank
  • Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contacts