Fourth ECB Annual Research Conference
5 and 6 September 2019
Conference room C2.01/02, Großmarkthalle, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main
The conference will feature research on central banking issues and is the ECB’s flagship research event covering the fields of monetary economics and finance.
Thursday, 5 September 2019
- Registration and coffee
Luis de Guindos (Vice-President, European Central Bank)
Chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank
A model to explain the following recent phenomena: a fall in the long-run growth rate, rising firm concentration and profits, and a decline in labour’s share of national income. The driving force in the model is falling firm-level costs of operating in multiple markets, owing to, for instance, innovation in IT.
- Philippe Aghion* (London School of Economics)
- Antonin Bergeaud (Banque de France)
- Timo Boppart (Institute for International Economic Studies)
- Peter Klenow (Stanford University)
- Huiyu Li (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Discussant: Gilles Saint-Paul (Paris School of Economics)
Interview with Philippe Aghion
A study with detailed data from Germany, finding that the digital footprint – information that people leave online simply by accessing or registering on a website – is very helpful for predicting consumer default. The digital footprint affects consumers’ access to credit and reduces default rates.
- Tobias Berg (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management)
- Valentin Burg (Humboldt University Berlin)
- Ana Gombović (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management)
- Manju Puri* (Duke University)
Discussant: Daniel Paravisini (London School of Economics)
- Coffee break
A study examining the hypothesis that the recent growth in securitisation and shadow banking activities has been caused, in part, by the rise in life expectancy at retirement. The latter has increased the demand for assets for saving, which securitisation and shadow banks have attempted to satisfy.
- Guillermo Ordoñez* (University of Pennsylvania)
- Facundo Piguillem (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance)
Discussant: Alberto Martin (European Central Bank and CREI)
Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste (European Central Bank)
The cost of markups – higher prices due to monopoly power of firms in product markets – for social welfare is large, mainly because markups reduce output and consumption. Policies aimed at reducing firm concentration and markups would have undesirable side effects.
- Chris Edmond (University of Melbourne)
- Virgiliu Midrigan* (New York University)
- Daniel Yi Xu (Duke University)
Discussant: Jan Eeckhout (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
A study with new datasets from the United States over the 20th century, finding that higher corporate and personal income tax rates reduce the quantity and quality of inventive activity and shift its location.
- Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago)
- John R. Grigsby (University of Chicago)
- Tom Nicholas (Harvard University)
- Stefanie Stantcheva* (Harvard University)
Discussant: Harry Huizinga (Tilburg University)
Interview with Stefanie Stantcheva
- Coffee break
Panel discussion: 20 years of the euro
Chair: Martin Wolf (Financial Times)
- Erik Jones (Johns Hopkins University)
- Carmen Reinhart (Harvard University)
- Guido Tabellini (Bocconi University)
- Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics and Bank of England)
Conference dinner - by invitation only
Friday, 6 September 2019
- Registration and coffee
Chair: Sergio Nicoletti Altimari (European Central Bank)
Lenders that finance risky investment projects can protect themselves from losses by demanding collateral, or by conducting costly screening which generates information about projects. Credit booms driven by high collateral values reduce the incentive to produce information. Such booms can lead to deep crises and slow recoveries because information about investment projects takes time to rebuild.
- Vladimir Asriyan* (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional)
- Luc Laeven (European Central Bank)
- Alberto Martin (European Central Bank
Discussant: Augustin Landier (HEC Paris)
Recent decades have seen a transformation of the private equity industry, with a greater diversity of fund structures emerging alongside the traditional monolithic funds. This paper uses a previously unexplored dataset to examine the use of the new funds. It documents a steep increase in the capital directed to such funds, which approached a 40% share of all private equity commitments in 2017.
- Josh Lerner (Harvard University)
- Jason Mao (State Street Global Exchange)
- Antoinette Schoar* (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
- Nan R. Zhang (State Street Global Exchange)
Discussant: Per Strömberg (Stockholm School of Economics)
- Coffee break
Chair: Luc Laeven (European Central Bank)
Jean Monnet Lecture on "Machine learning in economics"
by Susan Athey (Stanford University)
Interview with Susan Athey
Chair: Massimo Rostagno (European Central Bank)
In the United States, most mortgages have a fixed interest rate and no prepayment penalties. The impact of monetary policy depends on how many households decide to refinance their mortgages. A given interest rate cut is more powerful when preceded by a sequence of rate cuts: when rates have been falling, many households have fixed mortgage rates that are higher than the current market rate.
- Martin Eichenbaum* (Northwestern University)
- Sergio Rebelo (Northwestern University)
- Arlene Wong (Princeton University)
Discussant: Benjamin Moll (Princeton University)
Interview with Martin Eichenbaum
End of conference
* An asterisk indicates the author presenting the relevant paper.
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: This event will be filmed and photographed, and the images and video recordings may be published online
European Central Bank
Main building, Conference Room C2.01/02, Grossmarkthalle
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.
Luc Laeven, Marie Hoerova, Bartosz Maćkowiak, Alberto Martin, Alexander Popov and Sabine Wiedemann (all European Central Bank)