International dimensions of conventional and unconventional monetary policy

Conference dates: Tuesday, 29 and Wednesday, 30 April 2014

Meeting room: Eurotower - conference room CVII

Venue: European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

Workshop Agenda

8.30 a.m. Registration
9 a.m. Welcome address
Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund
9.15 a.m. Keynote presentation
International macroeconomic policy coordination

Jonathan Ostry, International Monetary Fund; Atish R. Gosh, International Monetary Fund
keynote presentation
Discussion: moderated by Rasmus Rueffer, European Central Bank
10 a.m. Coffee break
10.15 a.m. Keynote speech
International Coordination of Monetary and Macroprudential Policy

Charles Engel, University of Wisconsin
keynote speech
Session 1
The theory of international monetary policy cooperation

Chair: Jonathan Ostry, International Monetary Fund
11.15 a.m. Exchange rate flexibility under the zero lower bound
David Cook, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Michael Devereux, University of British Columbia
presentation
Discussant: Giancarlo Corsetti, University of Cambridge
discussion
12.15 p.m. Group photo in ground floor lobby
Lunch
Session 2
Unconventional monetary policies

Chair: Frank Moss, European Central Bank
1.45 p.m. Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a cross-country comparison
Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board; John H. Rogers, Federal Reserve Board; Jonathan H. Wright, Johns Hopkins University
presentation
Discussant: Marco Lo Duca, European Central Bank
discussion
2.35 p.m. The financial and macroeconomic effects of the OMT announcements
Michele Lenza, European Central Bank; Carlo Altavilla, European Central Bank; Domenico Giannone, Université Libre de Bruxelles
presentation
Discussant: Jamus Lim, World Bank
discussion
3.25 p.m. Assessing potential inflation consequences of QE after financial crises
Samuel Reynard, Swiss National Bank
presentation
Discussant: Tomasz Wieladek, Bank of England
discussion
4.15 p.m. Coffee break
Session 3
Monetary policy spillovers from advanced countries
Chair: Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, International Monetary Fund
4.35 p.m. Financial crisis, unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers
Feng Zhu, Bank for International Settlements; Qianying Chen, International Monetary Fund; Andrew Filardo, Bank for International Settlements; Dong He, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
presentation
Discussant: Bernhard Winkler, European Central Bank
discussion
5.25 p.m. Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy
Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
Discussant: Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund
discussion
6.15 p.m. End of first day of conference
7.30 p.m. Dinner (by invitation only)
Session 4
The effect on emerging markets

Chair: Gilles Noblet, European Central Bank
9 a.m. Reserve Bank of India's policy dilemmas: reconciling policy goals in times of turbulence
Bruno Carrasco, Asian Development Bank; Hiranya Mukhopadhyay, Asian Development Bank
presentation
Discussant: Salih Fendoglu, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
discussion
09.50 a.m. Quantitative easing and capital flows in Brazil: measuring it's effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation
João Barata R. B. Barroso, Banco Central do Brasil; Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, Banco Central do Brasil; Adriana Soares Sales, Banco Central do Brasil
presentation
Discussant: Frank Warnock, University of Virginia
discussion
10.40 a.m. Coffee break
11.00 a.m. What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?
Martin Weale, Bank of England; Tomasz Wieladek, Bank of England
presentation
11.30 a.m. Keynote address
The internationalisation of monetary policy
more
Benoît Coeuré, European Central Bank
12 p.m. Lunch
Session 5
International currencies

Chair: Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund
1.15 p.m. Deciding to enter a monetary union: the role of trade and financial linkages
Ruy Lama, International Monetary Fund; Pau Rabanal, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Francesco Mongelli, European Central Bank
discussion
2.05 p.m. Foreign exchange reserve diversification and the "exorbitant privilege"
Patrizio Pagano, Banca d'Italia; Pietro Cova, Banca d'Italia; Massimiliano Pisani, Banca d'Italia
presentation
Discussant: Ruy Lama, International Monetary Fund
discussion
2.55 p.m. 2014 Review of the International Role of the Euro: Dissecting Foreign Investments in Euro Area Bond Markets during the Sovereign Debt Crisis
Johannes Gräb, European Central Bank; Roland Beck, European Central Bank; Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
presentation
Discussant: Bruno Carrasco, Asian Development Bank
discussion
Concluding remarks
Livio Stracca, European Central Bank
End of conference

Conference organisers

The European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are hosting a conference on the international dimension of monetary policy in the post-crisis environment. Professor Charles Engel of the University of Wisconsin has agreed to deliver the keynote address. The organising committee includes Stijn Claessens (IMF), Luca Dedola (ECB), Livio Stracca (ECB) and Isabel Vansteenkiste (ECB).

Paper submission

The conference will include invited contributions and other submissions. Full papers should be submitted in PDF format to ecbimfconference@ecb.europa.eu.

The deadline for paper submission is 3 February 2014. Decisions will be communicated to authors by early March 2014.

Travel

Travel and accommodation costs will be covered for academic speakers and selected invited speakers.

Publication

Papers given at the conference will be published in a special issue of the "The Journal of International Money and Finance", subject to the usual review process of the journal (guest editors: Stijn Claessens and Livio Stracca).

Key themes of the conference

Identifying and measuring monetary policy spillovers

  • How large are the international spillovers of monetary policy? How important are conventional and unconventional policies in driving global financial cycles, i.e. developments in capital flows, asset prices and exchange rates? If there is a global leverage cycle, what is the importance of monetary policy as a factor relative to global bank behaviour?
  • What are the channels for the international transmission of conventional and non-conventional monetary policies? How important are they? How do they vary by global, source country and destination country circumstances? Are these channels different for different types of policy, including different types of unconventional policy? Can we measure them? Do they also depend on specific features of source and destination countries such as the exchange regime and the degree of capital mobility?
  • How do the cross-border effects of monetary policies on financial stability arise? Are effects largely price or largely quantity-based? How do they vary by source and destination country circumstances?

Implications for the international monetary system

  • To what extent should the international monetary system evolve to take into account international spillovers of monetary policies?
  • Could developments in the relative importance of reserve currencies reduce or increase the risk of spillovers and the need for policy coordination? Would (or should) a decrease in the dependence of the world financial system on the dollar reduce the risk of spillovers?
  • Does the increasing importance of global financial factors and global banks make it even more difficult to make monetary policy independence compatible with free capital flows and floating exchange rates?
  • Should capital flow management measures be considered in exceptional circumstances once other options for adjusting have been exhausted?
  • Are global financial safety nets and central bank swap lines substitutes or complements in reducing risks?

Policy coordination issues

  • Do spillovers imply that countries have less control over their own monetary and financial stability? What unilateral policy space do they have, in principle and in practice? What are their trade-offs in terms of internal and external policy goals?
  • Are certain monetary policy frameworks more robust to the impact of global spillovers than others? For example, is it better to target core rather than headline inflation given the impact of global commodity price swings? Should reliance on conventional monetary policy be reduced to address cross-border financial flows and their impact on financial stability? Should the policy horizon (implicit) in domestic policy frameworks be adjusted to take global policy spillovers into account?
  • Which aspects of spillovers give rise to relevant (negative or positive) externalities? What are the gains from and the scope for policy coordination in the monetary policy domain? To what extent do central banks already take into account cross-border spillovers in their monetary policy strategy? What dimensions of monetary policy spillovers are central banks unlikely to internalise? Does this argue for international coordination in principle?
  • Is coordination of monetary policies among major central banks desirable and feasible in practice, given that they have mandates and are accountable domestically? Has past formal and informal coordination between central banks been successful?
  • What steps would help strengthen coordination further, if needed? What types of coordination instrument are possible? What roles can international forums and international financial institutions play?