Seasonal adjustment of monetary aggregates and Consumer Price Indices (HICP) for the euro area

The European Central Bank (ECB) will today release the publication entitled "Seasonal adjustment of monetary aggregates and Consumer Price Indices (HICP) for the euro area" (pdf 881 kB). Seasonal adjustment facilitates the interpretation of economic statistics by correcting them for recurrent influences within the year. These influences may be caused by events such as weather and calendar effects, regular tax payments or sales periods. Most monthly and quarterly statistics for the euro area used by the ECB are subject to these influences and seasonally adjusted results are important for the assessment of the business cycle.

The report addresses various methodological issues concerning seasonal adjustment, focusing on two key indicators essential to the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB: monetary aggregates and Harmonised Consumer Price Indices (HICP) for the euro area. Besides explaining the seasonal adjustment of the monetary aggregates regularly published in the ECB Monthly Bulletin, the report also reviews the use of two leading seasonal adjustment packages, Census X-12 ARIMA and TRAMO-SEATS.

The publication will be available on the ECB's website as from 3 p.m. ECB time (C.E.T.). Copies of the printed version can be ordered free of charge from the ECB's Press Division (Fax: +49 69 1344 7404).