“Monetary policy and the euro area problem”

Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice President of the European Central Bank, at the 18th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt on 16 November 2015

The speech points that the euro area problem is part of a predicament shared by other advanced economies: decades of declining economic and productivity growth rates, prolonged periods of low inflation and an untamed financial sector fuelling asset price booms. Policies adopted by the ECB are thus responding to the present situation of low inflation and tepid recovery.

Namely, the low level of policy rates is associated with the declining real rate of equilibrium. The worsening of the international economic situation and the low inflation will lead the ECB to reassess its policy stance in December. To face the challenges confronting the euro area, it is recognised that monetary policy cannot address all the problems and that structural reforms and fiscal policy should help to overcome them.

The generalised use of system-wide stress testing was boosted by the financial crisis. However, thus far, system-wide stress tests have been focusing on banks and their solvency and have been used for microprudential purposes.

The macroprudential policy function has added a new dimension to stress testing going well beyond the examination of individual bank results. Enhancements in the macro stress testing framework are underway to integrate more realistic dynamic features in the model-framework, allow for banks’ reactions, add a proper liquidity stress test component, integrate contagion effects as well as a two-way interaction with the real economy. Furthermore, efforts are being made in the direction of going beyond banks and integrating, to the extent possible, the shadow banking sector in the broader framework. These steps are necessary to provide the macro dimension to stress testing exercises and make them fit for macroprudential policy use. This entails accounting for macroeconomic impacts along the horizons of stress testing exercises, as well as alerting for the need for pre-emptive action and assessing the impact of macroprudential policy tools.

The objective is very challenging but is being actively pursued: a new framework  for stress testing must serve both the micro- and the macroprudential policy functions in a complementary way.

When the business cycle and the financial cycles are disconnected, monetary policy must remain anchored to its goal of ensuring price stability in the markets of goods and services. It cannot address instability in asset markets or broader financial stability risks. This is the task of macroprudential policy. Its objective is to contain systemic risk in the financial system. The role of macroprudential policy is all the more relevant in a monetary union, where economic and financial conditions may significantly differ across member states. With its granular and targeted instruments, macroprudential policy provides the most appropriate tool for staving off financial stability risks in the specific areas where they arise, being it at the level of a country, a sector or a financial institution. An effective conduct of macroprudential policy can therefore help monetary policy to remain focussed on fulfilling its price stability mandate.

The last two years have shown that macroprudential policy in Europe is already active. The implemented national macroprudential policies since the start of the CRR/CRD IV are especially focussed on structurally strengthening the banking system. In addition, the adoption of borrower-based instruments, such as loan-to-value (LTV), loan-to-income (LTI) or debt service-to-income (DSTI) by national authorities indicates that they are useful instruments in the European environment to curtail excessive credit and house price growth by acting directly on borrower’s conditions.

Going forward, we need to complete the macroprudential toolkit in the hands of European authorities to enhance consistency and policy co-ordination and to enable them to address financial stability risks emerging outside the banking system. This will be a key step to accompany further European market integration and the creation of a true Capital Markets Union.

Divergent monetary policies and the world economy

Keynote address by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
at the conference organised by FED/ECB/FED Dallas/HKMA in Hong Kong, 15 October 2015

We live in an increasingly globalised world. The responsiveness of financial markets to monetary policy announcements is prima facie evidence that the exit from the zero lower bound may have potent spillovers on other countries in the short run. The medium-term impact of monetary policy spillovers is however much less clear-cut than frequently assumed in policy debates. Looking forward, central banks play an important role in preserving price and financial stability in their own constituencies, but also in stabilising the global financial system. However, it would be a misconception to believe that central bank actions alone are enough. Central banks have to respond to their own economies’ fundamentals but “putting their house in order” is not enough to ensure a suitable global economic environment. Global challenges require domestic and global responses to make the financial system more resilient.

Understanding Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy

Panel remarks by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 29 August 2015

At the 2015 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio discusses main challenges in understanding inflation dynamics. He reviews recent developments in euro area inflation and related implications for monetary policy.

Understanding inflation dynamics has become particularly important in present times, in view of the prolonged low inflation phase. The traditional relationship between slack in the economy and inflation seems to have weakened significantly in some countries. This requires a careful examination since that relationship – the Phillips curve – is the traditional cornerstone of the transmission mechanism giving central banks control of inflation. Inflation dynamics since the Great Recession have shown signs of instability that have led to a sequence of systematic forecast errors. The two puzzles of “missing disinflation” in 2009-11 followed by “excessive disinflation” after 2012 triggered a surge of new research around the Phillips curve and its possible demise.

After reviewing a number of unsettled issues pertaining to the Phillips curve in the economic literature, such as those related to the measurement of economic slack and inflation expectations, the discussion note argues that the two puzzles can be explained, and that the Philips curve for the euro area is alive and well. This is comforting since the opposite result would raise serious questions about the central bank’s capacity to control inflation.

The current phase of low inflation is significantly driven by negative demand shocks at the global and domestic level, besides commodity price developments. This is certainly the case for the euro area where the low inflation can largely be explained by domestic demand weakness, possibly leading to a larger degree of economic slack than indicated by the usual methods. The link between inflation and real economic activity appears however to have strengthened in the euro area as of late (steepening of the Phillips curve). We should thus be able to bring the inflation rate closer to target in the medium term, provided that our policies are successful in significantly reducing the economic slack.

Strengthening macroprudential policy in Europe

Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
at the Conference on “The macroprudential toolkit in Europe and credit flow restrictions”, organised by Lietuvos Bankas,
Vilnius, 3 July 2015

The current euro area environment, with policy rates required to stay low for a prolonged period of time and an apparent disconnect between the business and financial cycle, clearly points to a situation where monetary policy cannot deviate from price stability objectives to influence the financial cycle. This is the task of macroprudential policy. While acknowledged in principle, this fact has not yet been fully reflected in our policy frameworks.

Two major moves are required. First, macroprudential policy must place greater emphasis on preventing large fluctuations in the financial cycle, rather than simply increasing resilience to shocks when they occur. In addition to the bank-side capital based measures enhancing banks’ resilience, borrower-based instruments (such as LTVs or DSTIs), which have proved to be more effective in curtailing excessive credit growth, and are also applicable in a time-varying fashion, should gain more prominence. In particular, borrower-based measures should be properly embedded in European legislation, which is not the case at present. Second, a broader macroprudential toolkit is needed to address risks stemming from the shadow banking sector due to its increasing role in credit intermediation. This could involve measures such as redemption gates and loading fees to provide additional safeguards. Guided stress tests can provide comparable assessments of the health of individual institutions and of the resilience of the financial system as a whole. Appropriate policy responses to mitigate growing risks need however to be calibrated, in order to ensure a contained impact on credit supply to the real economy.

Financial stability risks, monetary policy and the need for macro-prudential policy

Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
Warwick Economics Summit,
13 February 2015

The financial crisis has shown that price stability is not sufficient to guarantee financial stability. The financial cycle and the business cycle are not synchronised, implying that risks can emerge especially in the periods of “disconnect” between the two cycles. In the run-up to the financial crisis, imbalances were building-up while inflation was low and stable. At present, the search for yield phenomenon continues against the very low inflation, subdued growth and low interest rate environment.

Monetary policy aims at ensuring price stability in the market for goods and services. It should not be used to address pockets of instability in asset markets. This falls under the remit of macro-prudential policy, aimed at safeguarding stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk. At present, in advance economies, monetary policy needs to stabilise prices and to continue supporting real activity, while macro-prudential policy needs to tame the financial sector in asset market segments showing signs of exuberance or where imbalances could be forming.

Financial stability objectives can only be achieved with an effective macro-prudential policy. This requires policy interventions in a timely and bold manner, significantly affecting the normal behaviour of financial markets or financial institutions. This poses great challenges. First, measures would need to be admittedly intrusive, going well beyond the new capital and liquidity regulatory framework. Secondly, the macro-prudential tool-kit that has been legislated – including the one entrusted to the ECB/SSM – is not complete, it is centred on banks. Instruments would need to address other financial activities and institutions, notably pertaining to the steadily growing “shadow banking” sector. Advanced economies will only be able to ensure financial stability with effective macro-prudential policy interventions.

Monetary policy challenges in the euro area

Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
at the Annual Conference of the Marshall Society,
on “The power of policy: solving problems and shaping the future”,
Cambridge, 31 January 2015

The monetary policy experience of the past seven years is reviewed. In pursuit of its objectives, the ECB has been very flexible in adjusting and expanding its toolkit.

In a first phase, from 2008 to 2013, monetary policy measures aimed at easing financial constraints arising from malfunctioning money and funding markets. Non-standard monetary policy was conducted in a context of well-anchored inflation expectations. It was not aimed at, but unavoidably resulted in, the expansion of the ECB's balance sheet.

The second phase, since 2013, is characterised by a more active use of the ECB’s balance sheet, as inflation started to fall significantly below 2%, accompanied by declines in various measures of long-term inflation expectations. Non-standard measures, introduced as from July 2013, included a policy of forward guidance, asset purchase programmes of private debt, a programme to provide targeted long-term funding to banks and an enlargement of the asset purchase programme to include sovereign bonds.

A number of concerns have been voiced regarding the adoption of a large scale asset purchase programme (APP) in the euro area. It is argued that these concerns are unfounded since: the transmission channels of the APP go well beyond the direct effect on the price and yield of the purchased assets; government fiscal discipline should not be achieved at the expense of central bank independence; central banks have instruments to absorb the effects of an expanded monetary base should inflation become a risk in the future; and finally, exuberance in specific asset markets should be addressed with macro-prudential policy tools, at national level, since price stability relevant for monetary policy refers to the market of goods and services, not to asset markets at large.

At the moment, the euro area is suffering mostly from weak aggregate demand. Supply-side policies are necessary to increase the medium-term growth potential. Monetary policy, aiming at price stability by stimulating demand and supporting investment, should reduce employment and output gaps, thereby positively affecting medium-term growth.