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Joint conference by De Nederlandsche Bank, European Central Bank and University of Groningen

at De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, on 15-16 November, 2010

Conference on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - What Role for Central Bank Communication?

Deadline for submission: 30 June 2010

In response to the financial crisis of 2007-2009, a number of countries are currently reconsidering and changing the setup of their financial supervisory system. In a large number of countries, central banks will be given a more prominent role, in micro- and especially in macro-prudential supervision. This development is, inter alia, based on the idea that combining financial supervision with monetary policy tasks can lead to synergies, e.g. through information gains, thereby possibly leading to a more effective conduct of monetary policy and/or to more effective crisis prevention and management. At the same time, such a development might entail risks for central banks. For instance, a supervisory role might at times lead to conflicts among different goals, and could entail a risk for the reputation of a central bank, which in turn might affect the effectiveness of its monetary policy conduct.

In order to minimise the risk of a reputational loss, central banks that are entrusted with supervisory tasks will need to carefully design their respective communication policies. The way the central bank communicates will also be particularly important in situations where conflicts among its different goals arise. The conference aims to bring together academics and researchers at policy institutions to discuss ongoing research on these issues. Questions to be addressed include, but are not limited to:

  • The role of central bank communication in the conduct of monetary policy and in ensuring financial stability. Is the role of communication in maintaining price stability and financial stability different? What should be communicated with respect to financial stability?  How should central banks communicate in the presence of conflicts among different goals?
  • What is the role of Financial Stability Reports (FSRs) in maintaining financial stability? How have FSRs evolved over time? Is the information content of FSRs different across central banks and if so, what explains these differences? What role do FSRs play in central bank communication?
  • Analyses of the reputational risk that is entailed, e.g. by studying the determinants of central bank reputation, its evolution over time (and in particular during crisis episodes), the effect of reputation on central bank performance, and the degree to which reputation and its effects depend on the central bank having supervisory functions.
  • The extent to which communication effects and reputation risks differ depending on the form and extent of the financial stability mandate of the central bank.

Accepted papers will be discussed by a discussant after which a plenary discussion will take place. The conference will also contain a panel discussion on the relevant issues. Confirmed panel speakers are Patrick Honohan (Central Bank of Ireland), Donato Masciandaro (Bocconi University), and Lars Nyberg (The Riksbank).

Submission of papers:

Interested authors should submit either a draft of the paper or an extended, detailed abstract by 30 June 2010 to J.de.Haan@DNB.NL. Authors of accepted papers will be notified by early August 2010. The final versions of the papers selected for the conference are due by 15 October 2010.

Organising committee:

Jakob de Haan (DNB, University of Groningen, J.de.Haan@DNB.NL), Michael Ehrmann (ECB, michael.ehrmann@ecb.europa.eu), Frank Smets (ECB, University of Groningen, frank.smets@ecb.europa.eu), and Michael Koetter (University of Groningen, m.koetter@rug.nl).

Expenses:

Travel expenses of presenting authors and discussants will be reimbursed.

Monday, November 15

9.00 Coffee and registration
9.30 Welcome speech by Prof. dr. Lex Hoogduin, executive director De Nederlandsche Bank
  First Session: Central bank communication about policy decisions
Chair: Jakob de Haan (DNB, RUG)
10.00

Sandra Schmidt (Centre for European Economic Research) and Dieter Nautz (Free University Berlin)
Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?  download
Discussant: Pinar Özlü (The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

10.45 Andrei Sirchenko (European University Institute, Florence)
Do MPC voting records help predicting policy rate changes? download
Discussant: Beata Bierut (DNB)
11.30 Petr Král, Jiří Böhm, and Branislav Saxa (Czech National Bank)
Perception is Always Right: The CNB’s Monetary Policy in the Media  download
Discussant: David-Jan Jansen (DNB)
12.15 Lunch
  Second Session: Central bank transparency: Does it really work?
Chair: Michael Ehrmann (ECB)
13.30 Dmitri Vinogradov (University of Essex)
Destructive effects of constructive ambiguity in risky times download
Discussant: Jakob Bosma (RUG)
14.15 Byoung-Ki Kim (Bank of Korea)
Local Sharing of Private Information and Central Bank Communication download
Discussant: Itai Agur (DNB)
15.00 Coffee break
15.15 Christian Matthes (New York University)
Figuring Out the Fed - Beliefs about Policymakers and Gains from Transparency download
Discussant Martin Ellison (Oxford University)
16.00 Jan-Egbert Sturm and Michael J. Lamla (KOF Swiss Economic Institute)
ECB Communication and Inflation Expectations
Discussant: Selva Demiralp (Koç University)
16.45 Boris Cournède and Makoto Minegishi (OECD)
The role of transparency in the conduct of monetary policy download
Discussant: Stefan Krause (Banque de France)
17.30 Drinks
19.00 Dinner

Tuesday, November 16

  Third Session: Central bank communication and financial stability
Chair: Michael Koetter (RUG)
9.30 Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University)
Communication for Multi-taskers: Perspectives on Dealing with Both Monetary Policy and Financial Stability download
Discussant: Gabriele Galati (DNB)
10.15 Matthias Neuenkirch (Philipps University Marburg), Ingo Fender (BIS), and Bernd Hayo (Philipps University Marburg)
Monetary policy spillovers and emerging market credit: The impact of Federal Reserve communications on sovereign CDS spreads  download
Discussant: Julia Körding (ECB)
11.00 Coffee break
11.15 Michael Ehrmann (ECB), Benjamin Born (University of Bonn), and Marcel Fratzscher (ECB)
Macroprudential policy and central bank communication download
Discussant: Jorge Ponce (Banco Central del Uruguay)
12.00 Carin van der Cruijsen, David-Jan Jansen, Jakob de Haan and Robert Mosch (DNB)
Expectations of banking supervision: Evidence from a survey of Dutch households download
Discussant: Kostas Tsatsaronis, (BIS)
12.45 Lunch
  Fourth Session: Policy issues
Chair: Frank Smets (ECB, RUG)
14.00 Carsten Detken (ECB) and Lucia Alessi (ECB)
‘Real time’ early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity
Discussant: Matthieu Bussiere (Banque de France)
14.45 Roman Kessler (World Economic Forum)
Central bank communication: The perspective of a journalist
15.15 Policy panel with Patrick Honohan (Central Bank of Ireland), Donato Masciandaro (Bocconi University) and Lars Nyberg (The Riksbank)
17.00 End of conference