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Macroeconomic Modelling Frontiers for Research and Policy in Central Banks

Wednesday, 27 and Thursday, 28 November 2024

Frankfurt am Main

on-site event

The events of the recent years (Covid-19, post-pandemic inflation, large-scale fiscal/monetary policies, climate change, artificial intelligence etc.) have brought the topic of modelling and forecasting at central banks to the spotlight. The conference will bring together academics and policymakers aiming to serve as a platform to assess and validate the modelling and forecasting agendas employed by central banks.

The first day consists of high-level presentations and a policy panel discussing the role of macroeconomic models in central banking, their current challenges, and emerging trends.

Programme

* indicates the presenter

Wednesday, 27 November 2024

Policy Day Ahead

13:30

Registration and coffee

14:00

Opening remarks

Óscar Arce, European Central Bank

Keynote Speeches

Chair: Óscar Arce, European Central Bank

14:15

Keynote speech 1 – title tbc

Argia Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

15:15

Keynote speech 2 – title tbc

David Vines, Oxford University
16:15

Coffee break

16:45

Policy panel: “Macroeconomic models for central banking: usefulness and challenges”

Moderator: Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank

Panelists:

  • Don Coletti, Bank of Canada
  • Juha Kilponen, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank
  • Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics
  • Carlos Thomas, Banco de España
18:15

End of day 1
followed by a reception – by invitation only

19:00

Dinner

 – by invitation only –

Remarks

Philip Lane, European Central Bank

Dinner Speech

Huw Pill, Bank of England

Thursday, 28 November 2024

Research conference

8:30

Registration and coffee

Session A: Heterogeneity

Chair: May Rostom, Bank of England

9:00

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Disaggregated Economies

  • Lydia Cox, University of Wisconsin-Madison and NBER
  • Jiacheng Feng, Jane Street Capital
  • Gernot J. Müller*, University of Tübingen and CEPR
  • Ernesto Pasten, Central Bank of Chile
  • Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University, and CEPR
  • Michael Weber, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago and NBER

Discussant: Luzie Thiel, University of Kassel  

9:50

The Labor Demand and Labor Supply Channels of Monetary Policy

  • Sebastian Graves*, University of Cambridge
  • Christopher Huckfeldt, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Eric Swanson, University of California, Irvine, and NBER

Discussant: Vivien Lewis, Deutsche Bundesbank   

10:40

Coffee break

Session B: Artificial Intelligence

Chair: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank

11:10

Expectation formation in Large Language Models

Nikoleta Anesti*, Edward Hill and Andreas Joseph, all Bank of England

Discussant: Sarah Arndt, Heidelberg University 

12:00

Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Data Using Gaussian Processes

  • Niko Hauzenberger, University of Strathclyde
  • Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University, IGIER, Baffi, Bidsa
  • Michael Pfarrhofer, WU Vienna
  • Anna Stelzer*, Oesterreichische Nationalbank

Discussant: Claudia Foroni, European Central Bank  

12:50

Buffet lunch

Session C: Climate change

Chair: Eva Ortega, Banco de España

14:10

Global economic impacts of physical climate risks

  • Roshen Fernando*, Australian National University and World Bank
  • Caterina Lepore, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Francesca Diluiso, Bank of England

15:00

Warming the MATRIX: Uncertainty and heterogeneity in climate change impacts and policy targets in the Euro Area

  • Davide Bazzana, FEEM/UniBS
  • Massimiliano Rizzati*, FEEM/UniBS
  • Emanuele Ciola, FEEM/UniBS
  • Enrico Turco, FEEM/UniCatt
  • Sergio Vergalli, FEEM/UniBS

Discussant: Laura Parisi, European Central Bank  

15:50

Coffee break

Session D: Hybrid approaches

Chair: Roberto Motto, European Central Bank

16:20

Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agents Models with Neural Networks

  • Hanno Kase, European Central Bank
  • Leonardo Melosi*, University of Warwick, DNB, & CEPR
  • Matthias Rottner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Discussant: Julien Pascal, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg  

17:10

Geography versus Income: The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Taxation

  • Charles Labrousse*, Insee, Paris School of Economics
  • Yann Perdereau, Paris School of Economics

Discussant: Nicolò Gnocato, Banca d’Italia

18:00

Closing remarks and end of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.

General information

Venue

European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Language

English

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Organising committee

Matteo Ciccarelli, Matthieu Darracq Pariès and Romanos Priftis, all European Central Bank