2011 Q3
HICP Inflation forecasts
Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | June 2012 | June 2013 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean point estimate | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Number of replies | 50 | 49 | 39 | 43 | 36 | 39 |
Probability distributions | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | June 2012 | June 2013 | 2016 |
<-1.0% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
-1.0 to -0.6% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
-0.5 to -0.1% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
0.0 to 0.4% | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
0.5 to 0.9% | 0.4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 5.1 |
1.0 to 1.4% | 1.6 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 14.1 | 12.7 |
1.5 to 1.9% | 4.6 | 35.6 | 31.4 | 33.0 | 30.4 | 26.6 |
2.0 to 2.4% | 27.3 | 31.8 | 32.2 | 27.8 | 29.4 | 31.0 |
2.5 to 2.9% | 55.0 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 14.1 |
3.0 to 3.4% | 9.0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 5.6 |
3.5 to 3.9% | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
>4.0% | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Core HICP inflation forecasts
Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.
Real GDP growth forecasts
Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2012 Q1 | 2013 Q1 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean point estimate | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Number of replies | 50 | 49 | 38 | 43 | 35 | 39 |
Probability distributions | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2012 Q1 | 2013 Q1 | 2016 |
<-1.0% | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
-1.0 to -0.6% | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
-0.5 to -0.1% | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
0.0 to 0.4% | 1.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
0.5 to 0.9% | 2.8 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 6.6 |
1.0 to 1.4% | 9.5 | 21.6 | 19.0 | 27.7 | 20.4 | 17.2 |
1.5 to 1.9% | 37.7 | 36.5 | 34.2 | 29.9 | 32.3 | 31.6 |
2.0 to 2.4% | 37.6 | 19.8 | 23.2 | 16.1 | 21.7 | 24.9 |
2.5 to 2.9% | 9.0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 9.5 |
3.0 to 3.4% | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 4.2 |
3.5 to 3.9% | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
>4.0% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Unemployment rate forecasts
The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | May 2012 | May 2013 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean point estimate | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.2 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
Number of replies | 46 | 46 | 37 | 40 | 33 | 37 |
Probability distributions | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | May 2012 | May 2013 | 2016 |
<6.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
6.5 to 6.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 3.6 |
7.0 to 7.4% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 8.1 |
7.5 to 7.9% | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 15.5 |
8.0 to 8.4% | 0.7 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 22.1 |
8.5 to 8.9% | 2.1 | 8.8 | 19.1 | 7.9 | 18.4 | 20.4 |
9.0 to 9.4% | 11.3 | 30.3 | 34.2 | 27.5 | 33.5 | 15.1 |
9.5 to 9.9% | 54.9 | 37.6 | 23.0 | 38.6 | 23.6 | 8.4 |
10.0 to 10.4% | 25.7 | 14.0 | 9.4 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 3.6 |
10.5 to 10.9% | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
11.0 to 11.4% | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
11.5 to 11.9% | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
12.0 to 12.4% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
12.5 to 12.9% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
13.0 to 13.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
13.5 to 13.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
14.0 to 14.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
14.5 to 14.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
>15.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |