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2010 Q4

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2010 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2010 2011 2012 Sep. 2011 Sep. 2012 2015
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 61 51 50 43 48
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2012 Sep. 2011 Sep. 2012 2015
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.31.2
0.0 to 0.4% 0.5 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.62.5
0.5 to 0.9% 2.7 9.4 9.2 9.4 8.66.8
1.0 to 1.4% 32.9 29.8 24.0 29.4 22.116.0
1.5 to 1.9% 57.2 38.3 34.0 34.9 32.628.1
2.0 to 2.4% 5.1 13.9 19.1 16.0 20.826.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.9 4.0 6.8 4.8 7.211.1
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.2 2.64.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.61.9
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.20.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2010 2011 2012 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2015
Mean point estimate 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 61 53 50 44 46
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2012 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2015
<-1.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.40.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.60.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.71.3
0.0 to 0.4% 1.0 3.7 3.8 5.1 4.74.0
0.5 to 0.9% 3.5 11.6 10.0 14.7 11.18.6
1.0 to 1.4% 25.6 32.4 23.1 33.3 23.618.8
1.5 to 1.9% 57.7 30.7 33.6 27.1 30.829.5
2.0 to 2.4% 10.2 13.7 17.5 12.0 17.321.6
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 4.0 6.1 3.6 6.59.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.2 2.73.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.71.7
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2010 2011 2012 Aug. 2011 Aug. 2012 2015
Mean point estimate 10.1 10.0 9.6 10.0 9.6 8.3
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7
Number of replies 59 59 51 46 41 43
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2012 Aug. 2011 Aug. 2012 2015
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.22.8
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.38.5
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.616.7
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.6 3.2 0.5 4.320.1
8.5 to 8.9% 0.5 2.3 9.8 2.5 11.019.4
9.0 to 9.4% 2.3 9.2 21.7 11.2 21.015.0
9.5 to 9.9% 25.0 30.8 27.4 29.8 27.68.7
10.0 to 10.4% 62.1 35.6 19.9 34.1 18.34.0
10.5 to 10.9% 8.3 15.8 10.5 15.3 8.92.3
11.0 to 11.4% 1.1 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.11.0
11.5 to 11.9% 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.80.5
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.50.3
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0