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2006 Q2

Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as year on year percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices published by Eurostat.

2006 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2006 2007 Mar. 2007 Mar. 2008 2010
Mean point estimate 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Number of replies 59 59 54 49 47
Probability distributions 2006 2007 Mar. 2007 Mar. 2008 2010
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.5
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.71.2
0.5-0.9% 0.5 1.2 0.9 3.34.0
1.0-1.4% 3.8 5.5 5.5 13.210.8
1.5-1.9% 24.0 29.1 25.4 36.236.2
2.0-2.4% 55.5 45.0 46.9 33.532.5
2.5-2.9% 13.6 14.4 17.2 9.610.2
3.0-3.4% 2.2 3.7 3.2 2.73.6
>3.5% 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.81.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP, based on standardised ESA definition.

2006 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2006 2007 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2010
Mean point estimate 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.1
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 60 60 55 53 45
Probability distributions 2006 2007 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2010
<0.0% 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.30.5
0.0-0.4% 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.91.2
0.5-0.9% 1.1 2.8 1.2 4.33.6
1.0-1.4% 5.2 12.0 6.3 13.611.3
1.5-1.9% 28.4 36.8 25.7 37.531.5
2.0-2.4% 49.4 33.3 45.9 29.931.0
2.5-2.9% 12.6 9.7 16.1 10.014.0
3.0-3.4% 2.0 2.3 3.2 2.54.7
3.5-3.9% 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.61.7
>4.0% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.40.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate refers to Eurostat's definition and is calculated as a percentage of the labour force.

2006 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2006 2007 Feb. 2007 Feb. 2008 2010
Mean point estimate 8.1 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.2
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 59 58 53 46 43
Probability distributions 2006 2007 Feb. 2007 Feb. 2008 2010
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.11.0
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.42.1
6.0-6.4% 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.47.4
6.5-6.9% 0.4 2.1 1.2 4.814.3
7.0-7.4% 2.3 10.4 7.1 14.825.5
7.5-7.9% 25.6 37.3 36.1 39.325.4
8.0-8.4% 55.0 37.4 43.0 29.915.7
8.5-8.9% 13.5 9.3 9.6 6.75.6
9.0-9.4% 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.62.1
9.5-9.9% 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.60.9
10.0-10.4% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.20.2
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0