2003 Q2

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2003 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2003 2004 Mar. 2004 Mar. 2005 2007
Mean point estimate 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2
Number of replies 53 52 48 42 40
Probability distributions 2003 2004 Mar. 2004 Mar. 2005 2007
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.80.5
0.0-0.4% 0.1 1.1 1.5 2.31.2
0.5-0.9% 0.8 5.6 8.7 5.64.8
1.0-1.4% 7.6 19.5 27.5 18.613.9
1.5-1.9% 38.5 45.7 36.1 40.540.9
2.0-2.4% 43.5 21.2 19.5 22.225.2
2.5-2.9% 8.2 4.8 4.5 5.98.8
3.0-3.4% 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.43.3
>3.5% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.71.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2003 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2003 2004 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2007
Mean point estimate 1.0 2.1 1.3 2.3 2.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 52 51 49 47 41
Probability distributions 2003 2004 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2007
<0.0% 0.7 0.5 1.3 0.90.5
0.0-0.4% 7.0 1.2 5.6 1.40.8
0.5-0.9% 36.2 4.1 25.6 4.02.8
1.0-1.4% 40.4 11.1 33.4 7.47.9
1.5-1.9% 11.1 29.4 22.1 17.416.3
2.0-2.4% 3.1 34.8 8.3 31.832.0
2.5-2.9% 1.2 14.3 2.7 25.326.2
3.0-3.4% 0.3 3.1 0.7 9.18.8
3.5-3.9% 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.73.8
>4.0% 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.90.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2003 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2003 2004 Feb. 2004 Feb. 2005 2007
Mean point estimate 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.5 7.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8
Number of replies 50 49 43 37 36
Probability distributions 2003 2004 Feb. 2004 Feb. 2005 2007
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.6
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02.1
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.07.3
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.311.9
7.0-7.4% 0.5 1.7 0.7 3.519.9
7.5-7.9% 2.8 6.6 3.6 11.023.6
8.0-8.4% 12.5 15.0 15.0 24.619.4
8.5-8.9% 52.9 45.6 43.0 38.19.5
9.0-9.4% 27.7 24.8 31.2 17.73.7
9.5-9.9% 3.1 4.7 5.2 3.71.4
10.0-10.4% 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.00.7
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.10.1
>11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0