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2001 Q1

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat.
2001 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2001 2002 Dec. 2001 Dec. 2002 2005
Mean point estimate 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 59 58 55 47
Probability distributions 2001 2002 Dec. 2001 Dec. 2002 2005
<0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.20.1
0.0-0.4% 0.4 0.7 1.4 0.90.4
0.5-0.9% 1.3 4.5 5.3 4.73.3
1.0-1.4% 7.9 21.3 19.7 23.718.8
1.5-1.9% 34.5 40.4 42.3 38.340.2
2.0-2.4% 44.8 26.5 25.9 25.426.0
2.5-2.9% 9.8 5.6 4.2 5.39.1
3.0-3.4% 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.21.8
>3.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2001 2002 2001 Q3 2002 Q3 2005
Mean point estimate 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 61 58 53 52 45
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2001 Q3 2002 Q3 2005
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.3
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.5
0.5-0.9% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.70.9
1.0-1.4% 0.8 2.0 1.2 2.33.0
1.5-1.9% 3.6 5.0 5.5 5.68.8
2.0-2.4% 21.8 19.1 22.7 19.424.0
2.5-2.9% 50.5 43.5 45.9 41.634.5
3.0-3.4% 20.6 23.4 19.7 23.921.4
3.5-3.9% 2.0 5.6 3.7 5.25.6
>3.9% 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.11.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2001 2002 Nov. 2001 Nov. 2002 2005
Mean point estimate 8.6 8.1 8.4 8.0 7.2
Standard deviation 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8
Number of replies 60 58 55 53 40
Probability distributions 2001 2002 Nov. 2001 Nov. 2002 2005
<6.5% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.114.5
6.5-6.9% 0.1 1.0 0.2 1.717.2
7.0-7.4% 0.5 4.8 0.8 7.822.2
7.5-7.9% 3.9 28.0 9.7 29.920.9
8.0-8.4% 30.1 37.7 42.0 36.99.0
8.5-8.9% 48.1 18.9 35.1 14.27.1
9.0-9.4% 13.6 4.9 8.3 4.33.9
9.5-9.9% 2.7 3.1 2.4 2.73.1
10.0-10.4% 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.81.3
10.5-10.9% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.30.3
11.0-11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.2
11.5-11.9% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.10.1
>11.9% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0