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Working papers published in 2011

In-depth studies for experts

Our Working Paper Series (WPS) disseminates economic research relevant to the various tasks and functions of the ECB, and provides a conceptual and empirical basis for policy-making. The Working Papers constitute “work in progress”. They are published to stimulate discussion and contribute to the advancement of our knowledge of economic matters. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Discussion papers

Discussion papers differ from standard working papers in that they are more broadly accessible and offer a more balanced perspective. While partly based on original research, they place the analysis in the wider context of the literature on the topic and also explicitly consider the policy perspective.

Availability: ECB Working Papers are available online only, get updated on latest Working Paper releases by RSS news feed.

No. 1411
20 Dec 2011
Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy
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No. 1410
20 Dec 2011
Profit dynamics across the largest euro area countries and sectors
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No. 1409
20 Dec 2011
Analysis of variance for bayesian inference
Published in: Econometric Reviews, 2012 (forthcoming)
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No. 1408
13 Dec 2011
Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature
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No. 1407
13 Dec 2011
Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations
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No. 1406
13 Dec 2011
The public sector pay gap in a selection of Euro area countries
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No. 1405
13 Dec 2011
Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate
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No. 1404
13 Dec 2011
A VAR analysis for the uncovered interest parity and the ex-ante purchasing power parity: the role of macroeconomic and financial information
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No. 1403
13 Dec 2011
Do EU structural funds promote regional employment? Evidence from dynamic panel data models
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No. 1402
13 Dec 2011
Monetary policy and the flow of funds in the euro area
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No. 1401
28 Nov 2011
Gravity chains: estimating bilateral trade flows when parts and components trade is important
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No. 1400
28 Nov 2011
Aggregation, the skill premium, and the two-level production function
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No. 1399
28 Nov 2011
Economic performance and government size
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No. 1397
28 Nov 2011
Macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area
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No. 1396
28 Nov 2011
Learning from experience in the stock market
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No. 1395
17 Nov 2011
On the importance of prior relationships in bank loans to retail customers
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1394
04 Nov 2011
Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?
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No. 1393
28 Oct 2011
Marx vs. Weber: does religion affect politics and the economy?
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No. 1392
28 Oct 2011
China's dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri-polar global currency system
Published in: Economic Journal (forthcoming)
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No. 1391
28 Oct 2011
Interest rate expectations and uncertainty during ECB governing council days: evidence from intraday implied densities of 3-month Euribor
Published in: Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol 36 (10), October 2012: pp 2804-2823 and Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 33, 2013: pp 118–145
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No. 1390
28 Oct 2011
Fraud, investments and liability regimes in payment platforms
Conference on the future of retail payments: opportunities and challenges
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No. 1389
28 Oct 2011
Do newspaper articles on card fraud affect debit card usage?
Conference on the future of retail payments: opportunities and challenges
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No. 1388
28 Oct 2011
To surcharge or not to surcharge? A two-sided market perspective of the no-surchage rule
Conference on the future of retail payments: opportunities and challenges
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No. 1387
28 Oct 2011
Consumer credit and payment cards
Conference on the future of retail payments: opportunities and challenges
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No. 1386
28 Oct 2011
How do you pay? The role of incentives at the point-of-sale
Conference on the future of retail payments: opportunities and challenges
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No. 1385
28 Oct 2011
Using cash to monitor liquidity - implications for payments, currency demand and withdrawal behavior
Conference on the future of retail payments: opportunities and challenges
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No. 1384
04 Oct 2011
Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination
Published in: Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming)
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No. 1383
04 Oct 2011
An international comparison of voting by committees
Published in: International Journal of Central Banking, Vol 9 (3), September 2013: pp 150-197
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No. 1382
21 Sep 2011
Mapping the state of financial stability
Published in: Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Vol 26, October 2013: pp 46-76
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No. 1381
12 Sep 2011
Global crises and equity market contagion
Published in: Journal of Finance (forthcoming) as "The global crisis and equity market contagion"
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No. 1380
12 Sep 2011
Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries
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No. 1379
12 Sep 2011
Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession
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No. 1378
12 Sep 2011
Wage setting in Hungary: evidence from a firm survey
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No. 1377
01 Sep 2011
Ranking, risk-taking and effort: an analysis of the ECB's foreign reserves management
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No. 1376
01 Sep 2011
The price of liquidity: the effects of market conditions and bank characteristics
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1375
25 Aug 2011
Precautionary price stickiness
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No. 1374
25 Aug 2011
The 2007 subprime market crisis through the lens of European Central Bank auctions for short-term funds
Published in: Econometrica, Vol 81 (4), July 2013: pp 1309-1345
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No. 1373
22 Aug 2011
Asset prices, collateral and unconventional monetary policy in a DSGE model
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No. 1372
22 Aug 2011
Downward wage rigidity in Hungary
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No. 1371
22 Aug 2011
What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation
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No. 1370
22 Aug 2011
The global financial crisis: trying to understand the global trade downturn and recovery
Published in: The World Economy Journal, Vol 34 (5), 2011: pp 741-763.
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No. 1369
22 Aug 2011
Technology, utilization and inflation: what drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?
Published in: Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol 45 (8), December 2013: pp 1547-1579
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No. 1368
22 Aug 2011
Output growth and fluctuation: the role of financial openness
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No. 1367
18 Aug 2011
Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin
Published in: Journal of International Economics, Vol 88 (1), 2012: pp 162-175.
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No. 1366
15 Aug 2011
Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity
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No. 1365
01 Aug 2011
Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics
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No. 1364
20 Jul 2011
Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis
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No. 1363
20 Jul 2011
Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information
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No. 1362
20 Jul 2011
Securitization and lending standards: evidence from the wholesale loan market
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No. 1361
12 Jul 2011
Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal: an approach based on U.S. real-time data
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No. 1360
12 Jul 2011
How flexible are real wages in EU countries? A panel investigation
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No. 1359
12 Jul 2011
Does bargaining matter in the small firm's matching model?
Published in: Labour Economics, Vol 21, April 2013: pp 42-58
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No. 1358
22 Jun 2011
Determinants of credit-less recoveries
Published in: Empirical Economics, Vol 49, 2015: pp 1245-1269 as "Key features and determinants of credit-less recoveries"
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No. 1357
22 Jun 2011
Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity
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No. 1356
14 Jun 2011
The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s
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No. 1355
14 Jun 2011
Household's portfolio structure in Germany - analysis of financial accounts data 1959-2009
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No. 1354
14 Jun 2011
Saudi Aramco and the oil market
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No. 1353
14 Jun 2011
Exchange rate anchoring - Is there still a de facto US dollar standard?
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No. 1352
10 Jun 2011
Systemic risk and financial development in a monetary model
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No. 1351
06 Jun 2011
Potential output in DSGE models
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No. 1350
06 Jun 2011
The optimal width of the central bank standing facilities corridor and banks' day-to-day liquidity management
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No. 1349
06 Jun 2011
Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area
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No. 1348
01 Jun 2011
Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1347
01 Jun 2011
Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data
Published in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 31 (3), 2012: pp 606-638.
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No. 1346
01 Jun 2011
Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?
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No. 1345
01 Jun 2011
Systemic risk-taking: amplification effects, externalities, and regulatory responses
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1344
27 May 2011
Have euro area and EU economic governance worked? Just the facts
Published in: European Journal of Political Economy (forthcoming)
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No. 1343
27 May 2011
The predictive content of sectoral stock prices: a US-euro area comparison
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No. 1342
27 May 2011
Fiscal data revisions in Europe
Published in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol 45 (6), 2013: pp 1187-1209
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No. 1341
27 May 2011
Exact likelihood computation for nonlinear DSGE models with heteroskedastic innovations
Published in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 35, 2011: pp 2167‐2185.
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No. 1340
16 May 2011
How wages respond to shocks: asymmetry in the speed of adjustment
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No. 1339
12 May 2011
The stock market reaction to the 2005 non-tradable share reform in China
Published in: Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol 20, 2012: pp 543–560.
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No. 1338
11 May 2011
Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy
Published in: International Journal of Central Banking, Vol 10 (1), 2014, pp43-94
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No. 1337
02 May 2011
Who invests in home equity to exempt wealth from bankruptcy?
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No. 1336
02 May 2011
A monetary policy strategy in good and bad times: lessons from the recent past
Published in: Economic Policy, Vol 28 (74), 2013: pp 243-288
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No. 1335
02 May 2011
The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis
Published in: Economic Policy, Vol (26) 66, 2011: pp 137-182
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No. 1334
02 May 2011
On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price-setting
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No. 1333
20 Apr 2011
Distributional dynamics under smoothly state-dependent pricing
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No. 1332
20 Apr 2011
Central bank communication on financial stability
Published in: Economic Journal (forthcoming)
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No. 1331
20 Apr 2011
Business cycle dynamics under rational inattention
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No. 1330
20 Apr 2011
Financial remoteness and the net external position
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No. 1329
20 Apr 2011
Securitization, bank lending and credit quality: the case of Spain
Published in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 31, 2012: pp 80–101
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No. 1328
20 Apr 2011
The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the recent financial crisis
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No. 1327
13 Apr 2011
Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals
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No. 1326
13 Apr 2011
Welfare costs of inflation and the circulation of US currency abroad
Published in: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol 11 (1), 2011: Article 12.
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No. 1325
08 Apr 2011
Wage structure effects of international trade: evidence from a small open economy
Published in: Review of World Economics, Vol 148 (2), June 2012: pp 297-331
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No. 1324
08 Apr 2011
Nowcasting inflation using high frequency data
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No. 1323
08 Apr 2011
Structural reforms and macroeconomic performance in the euro area countries: a model-based assessment
Published in: International Finance, Vol 16 (1), Spring 2013: pp 23-44
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No. 1322
08 Apr 2011
Business cycle synchronisation: disentangling trade and financial linkages
Published in: Open Economies Review, Vol 23 (4), 2012: pp 623-643
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No. 1321
08 Apr 2011
Macroeconomic implications of downward wage rigidities
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No. 1320
07 Apr 2011
What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism
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No. 1319
07 Apr 2011
Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis
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No. 1318
07 Apr 2011
Using the global dimension to identify shocks with sign restrictions
Published in: Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec, as: "How the global perspective can help us identify structural shocks"
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No. 1317
07 Apr 2011
Financial imbalances and financial fragility
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No. 1316
07 Apr 2011
The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations
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No. 1315
07 Apr 2011
The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - simulated with rational expectations
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No. 1314
01 Apr 2011
Price and wage setting in Portugal: learning by asking
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No. 1313
24 Mar 2011
News and policy foresight in a macro-finance model of the US
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No. 1312
24 Mar 2011
A structural model of central bank operations and bank intermediation
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No. 1311
24 Mar 2011
Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events
Published in: Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol 37 (7), July 2013: pp 2183-2195.
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No. 1310
24 Mar 2011
Is China climbing up the quality ladder? Estimating cross country differences in product quality using Eurostat's COMEXT trade database
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No. 1309
15 Mar 2011
Skills and wage inequality in Greece: evidence from matched employer-employee data, 1995-2002
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No. 1308
09 Mar 2011
Myopic governments and welfare-enhancing debt limits
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No. 1307
03 Mar 2011
The response of labour taxation to changes in government debt
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No. 1306
01 Mar 2011
Why are some prices stickier than others? Firm-data evidence on price adjustment lags
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No. 1305
01 Mar 2011
Choosing between time and state dependence: micro evidence on firms' price-reviewing strategies
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No. 1304
28 Feb 2011
Subprime consumer credit demand: evidence from a lender's pricing experiment
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1303
28 Feb 2011
Behavioural characteristics and financial distress
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1302
28 Feb 2011
The immigrant/native wealth gap in Germany, Italy and Luxembourg
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1301
28 Feb 2011
Wealth mobility and dynamics over entire individual working life cycles
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1300
28 Feb 2011
Inheritances and the distribution of wealth or whatever happened to the great inheritance boom?
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1299
28 Feb 2011
Who lost the most? Financial literacy, cognitive abilities, and the financial crisis
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1298
28 Feb 2011
Check in the mail or more in the paycheck: does the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus depend on how it is delivered?
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1297
28 Feb 2011
Consumption and initial mortgage conditions: evidence from survey data
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1296
28 Feb 2011
Financial advice and stock market participation
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1295
28 Feb 2011
Which households use banks? Evidence from the transition economies
Conference on household finance and consumption
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No. 1294
16 Feb 2011
The normalized CES production function: theory and empirics
Published in: Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol 26 (5), 2012: pp 769-799
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No. 1293
10 Feb 2011
Financing obstacles among euro area firms: Who suffers the most?
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No. 1292
09 Feb 2011
Does the euro make a difference? Spatio-temporal transmission of global shocks to real effective exchange rates in an infinite VAR
Published in: B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol 13(1), 2013: pp 1-48 as "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro's creation?"
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No. 1291
09 Feb 2011
Liquidity requirements and payment delays - participant type dependent preferences
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No. 1290
14 Jan 2011
Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments
Published in: Interest Rates, Prices and Liquidity - Lessons from the Financial Crisis, Jagjit S. Chadha, Sean Holly (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 2011: pp 195-221.
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No. 1289
12 Jan 2011
Bayesian prior elicitation in DSGE models: macro- vs micro-priors
Published in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 36, 2012: pp 294-313
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No. 1288
11 Jan 2011
Getting beyond carry trade: what makes a safe haven currency?
Published in: Journal of International Economics, Vol 87 (1), May 2012: pp 50–64
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No. 1287
11 Jan 2011
Are universal banks better underwriters? Evidence from the last days of the Glass-Steagall Act
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No. 1286
10 Jan 2011
Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession
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No. 1285
10 Jan 2011
Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-09 financial crisis in a GVAR Model
Published in: European Economic Review, Vol 55 (3), April 2011, pp 325-339.
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No. 1284
05 Jan 2011
Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?
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Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that the papers are published in the name of the author(s). Their views do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.