Banking Supervision
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Working paper series

In-depth studies for experts

Our Working Paper Series (WPS) disseminates economic research relevant to the varioustasks and functions of the ECB, and provides a conceptual and empirical basis for policy-making. The Working Papers constitute “work in progress”. They are published to stimulate discussion and contribute to the advancement of our knowledge of economic matters. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Discussion papers

Discussion papers differ from standard working papers in that they are more broadly accessible and offer a more balanced perspective. While partly based on original research, they place the analysis in the wider context of the literature on the topic and also explicitly consider the policy perspective.

Availability: ECB Working Papers are available online only, get updated on latest Working Paper releases by RSS news feed.

No. 1967
30 Sep 2016
The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: stronger than thought
Lucia Alessi, Mark Kerssenfischer
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No. 1966
19 Sep 2016
An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area
Marek Jarociński, Michele Lenza
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No. 1965
16 Sep 2016
Bank interest rate setting in the euro area during the Great Recession
Gonzalo Camba-Méndez, Alain Durré, Francesco Paolo Mongelli
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No. 1964
16 Sep 2016
Signals from the government: policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks
Giovanni Callegari, Jacopo Cimadomo, Giovanni Ricco
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No. 1963
14 Sep 2016
Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe
Klaus Masuch, Edmund Moshammer, Beatrice Pierluigi
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No. 1962
14 Sep 2016
Multiplex interbank networks and systemic importance: an application to European data
Iñaki Aldasoro, Iván Alves
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No. 1961
14 Sep 2016
Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?
Alexander Jung
Published in: Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 49, September 2016: pp 18-32
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No. 1960
13 Sep 2016
Got rejected? Real effects of not getting a loan
Tobias Berg
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1959
12 Sep 2016
Interbank loans, collateral and modern monetary policy
Marcin Wolski, Michiel van de Leur
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1958
12 Sep 2016
How you export matters: the disassortative structure of international trade
Andreas Joseph, Chiara Osbat
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1957
09 Sep 2016
Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE
Tobias Blattner, Michael A. S. Joyce
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No. 1956
09 Sep 2016
The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment
Philippe Andrade, Johannes Breckenfelder, Fiorella De Fiore, Peter Karadi, Oreste Tristani
Discussion papers
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No. 1955
09 Sep 2016
Has the exchange rate pass through recently declined in the euro area?
Selin Özyurt
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No. 1954
30 Aug 2016
Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks
Norbert Metiu, Björn Hilberg, Michael Grill
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No. 1953
30 Aug 2016
Animal spirits, fundamental factors and business cycle fluctuations
Stéphane Dées, Srečko Zimic
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No. 1952
30 Aug 2016
The great moderation in international capital flows: a global phenomenon?
Peter McQuade, Martin Schmitz
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No. 1951
29 Aug 2016
The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data
Carlo Altavilla, Domenico Giannone
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No. 1950
29 Aug 2016
Is corruption efficiency-enhancing? A case study of nine Central and Eastern European countries
Elisa Gamberoni, Christine Gartner, Claire Giordano, Paloma Lopez-Garcia
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1949
29 Aug 2016
The stock market effects of a securities transaction tax: quasi-experimental evidence from Italy
Giuseppe Cappelletti, Giovanni Guazzarotti, Pietro Tommasino
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No. 1948
29 Aug 2016
Advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors
Irena Mikolajun, David Lodge
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No. 1947
26 Aug 2016
Asset allocation with judgment
Simone Manganelli
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No. 1946
26 Aug 2016
Real exchange rates and international co-movement: news-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets
Kyriacos Lambrias
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No. 1945
26 Aug 2016
Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: recent evidence based on survey data
Tomasz Łyziak, Maritta Paloviita
Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
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No. 1944
25 Aug 2016
Multi-layered interbank model for assessing systemic risk
Mattia Montagna, Christoffer Kok
Macroprudential Research Network
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No. 1943
25 Aug 2016
When shadows grow longer: shadow banking with endogenous entry
Anil Ari, Matthieu Darracq Pariès, Christoffer Kok, Dawid Żochowski
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No. 1942
25 Aug 2016
Policy spillovers and synergies in a monetary union
Óscar Arce, Samuel Hurtado, Carlos Thomas
Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
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No. 1941
15 Jul 2016
The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries
Elena Bobeica, Styliani Christodoulopoulou, Olegs Tkačevs
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1940
15 Jul 2016
How competitiveness shocks affect macroeconomic performance across euro area countries
Karsten Staehr, Robert Vermeulen
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1939
14 Jul 2016
Impact of the asset purchase programme on euro area government bond yields using market news
Roberto A. De Santis
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No. 1938
14 Jul 2016
Bond risk premia, macroeconomic factors and financial crisis in the euro area
Juan Angel Garcí­a, Sebastian E. V. Werner
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No. 1937
13 Jul 2016
The invisible hand of the government: “Moral suasion” during the European sovereign debt crisis
Steven Ongena, Alexander Popov, Neeltje Van Horen
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No. 1936
13 Jul 2016
Trade in value added: do we need new measures of competitiveness?
Kirsten Lommatzsch, Maria Silgoner, Paul Ramskogler
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1935
12 Jul 2016
Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy
Markus Behn, Marco Gross, Tuomas Peltonen
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No. 1934
12 Jul 2016
The BEAR toolbox
Alistair Dieppe, Romain Legrand, Björn van Roye
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No. 1933
11 Jul 2016
News and noise in the housing market
Andrea Gazzani
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No. 1932
07 Jul 2016
Credit market competition and liquidity crises
Elena Carletti, Agnese Leonello
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No. 1931
06 Jul 2016
Networks of value added trade
João Amador, Sónia Cabral
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1930
05 Jul 2016
Credit spreads, economic activity and fragmentation
Roberto A. De Santis
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No. 1929
05 Jul 2016
A portfolio demand approach for broad money in the euro area
Alexander Jung
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No. 1928
04 Jul 2016
The limits of model-based regulation
Markus Behn, Rainer Haselmann, Vikrant Vig
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No. 1927
01 Jul 2016
Violating the law of one price: the role of non-conventional monetary policy
Stefano Corradin, Maria Rodriguez-Moreno
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No. 1926
01 Jul 2016
Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?
Alexander Jung
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No. 1925
29 Jun 2016
Stressed interbank markets: evidence from the European financial and sovereign debt crisis
Juan Carlos Frutos, Carlos Garcia-de-Andoain, Florian Heider, Patrick Papsdorf
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No. 1924
27 Jun 2016
Pricing sovereign credit risk of an emerging market
Gonzalo Camba-Méndez, Konrad Kostrzewa, Anna Marszal, Dobromil Serwa
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No. 1923
17 Jun 2016
EAGLE-FLI. A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area
Nikola Bokan, Andrea Gerali, Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot, Massimiliano Pisani
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No. 1922
10 Jun 2016
Global credit risk: world country and industry factors
Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman, André Lucas
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No. 1921
10 Jun 2016
The real exchange rate and economic growth: revisiting the case using external instruments
Maurizio Michael Habib, Elitza Mileva, Livio Stracca
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No. 1920
09 Jun 2016
Making sense of the EU wide stress test: a comparison with the SRISK approach
Timotej Homar, Heinrich Kick, Carmelo Salleo
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No. 1919
09 Jun 2016
Liquidity, innovation, and endogenous growth
Semyon Malamud, Francesca Zucchi
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1918
08 Jun 2016
Collateral damage? On collateral, corporate financing and performance
Geraldo Cerqueiro, Steven Ongena, Kasper Roszbach
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
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No. 1917
08 Jun 2016
Search-based endogenous asset liquidity and the macroeconomy
Wei Cui, Sören Radde
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No. 1916
07 Jun 2016
Bank capital structure and the credit channel of central bank asset purchases
Matthieu Darracq Pariès, Grzegorz Hałaj, Christoffer Kok
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No. 1915
07 Jun 2016
Business, housing and credit cycles
Gerhard Rünstler, Marente Vlekke
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No. 1914
06 Jun 2016
The effect of bank shocks on firm-level and aggregate investment
João Amador, Arne J. Nagengast
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1913
06 Jun 2016
The risky steady state and the interest rate lower bound
Timothy Hills, Taisuke Nakata, Sebastian Schmidt
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No. 1912
03 Jun 2016
Determinants of euro-denominated corporate bond spreads
Elizaveta Krylova
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No. 1911
03 Jun 2016
Leading indicator properties of corporate bond spreads, excess bond premia and lending spreads in the euro area
Elizaveta Krylova
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No. 1910
25 May 2016
Waking up from the American dream: on the experience of young Americans during the housing boom of the 2000s
Luc Laeven, Alexander Popov
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No. 1909
25 May 2016
On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?
Paulo Soares Esteves, Elvira Prades
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1908
24 May 2016
Unemployment risk and over-indebtedness
Philip Du Caju, François Rycx, Ilan Tojerow
Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
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No. 1907
24 May 2016
Estimating the top tail of the wealth distribution
Philip Vermeulen
Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
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No. 1906
17 May 2016
The collateral channel of open market operations
Nuno Cassola, François Koulischer
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No. 1905
13 May 2016
Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models
Michele Ca' Zorzi, Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek
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No. 1904
13 May 2016
The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer
Felix Geiger, John Muellbauer, Manuel Rupprecht
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No. 1903
10 May 2016
Bank leverage and monetary policy's risk-taking channel: evidence from the United States
Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Gustavo A. Suarez
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No. 1902
03 May 2016
Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries
Urška Čede, Bogdan Chiriacescu, Péter Harasztosi, Tibor Lalinsky, Jaanika Meriküll
Competitiveness Research Network
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No. 1901
02 May 2016
Price drift before U.S. macroeconomic news: private information about public announcements?
Alexander Kurov, Alessio Sancetta, Georg Strasser, Marketa Halova Wolfe
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No. 1900
02 May 2016
Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty
Markus Holopainen, Peter Sarlin
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No. 1899
27 Apr 2016
Monetary policy according to HANK
Greg Kaplan, Benjamin Moll, Giovanni L. Violante
Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
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No. 1898
27 Apr 2016
Credit risk spillover between financials and sovereigns in the euro area during 2007-2015
Olivier Vergote
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No. 1897
26 Apr 2016
Restoring rational choice: The challenge of consumer financial regulation
John Y. Campbell
Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
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No. 1896
26 Apr 2016
Dynamic balance sheet model with liquidity risk
Grzegorz Hałaj
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No. 1895
25 Apr 2016
Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level
Stéphane Dées
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No. 1894
25 Apr 2016
Sovereign risk and bank risk-taking
Anil Ari
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No. 1893
20 Apr 2016
On the design of data sets for forecasting with dynamic factor models
Gerhard Rünstler
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No. 1892
20 Apr 2016
A lost generation? Education decisions and employment outcomes during the U.S. housing boom-bust cycle of the 2000s
Alexander Popov, Luc Laeven
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No. 1891
20 Apr 2016
Parsing financial fragmentation in the euro area: a multi-country DSGE perspective
Matthieu Darracq Pariès, Pascal Jacquinot, Niki Papadopoulou
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No. 1890
20 Apr 2016
Does slack influence public and private labor market interactions?
Ana Lamo, Enrique Moral-Benito, Javier J. Pérez
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No. 1889
30 Mar 2016
Cables, Sharks and Servers: Technology and the Geography of the Foreign Exchange Market
Barry Eichengreen, Romain Lafarguette, Arnaud Mehl
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No. 1888
08 Mar 2016
The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model
Marco Gross, Christoffer Kok, Dawid Żochowski
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No. 1887
03 Mar 2016
Network Dependence in the Euro Area Money Market
Gerhard Rünstler
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No. 1886
19 Feb 2016
Lending-of-last-resort is as lending-of-last-resort does: central bank liquidity provision and interbank market functioning in the euro area
Carlos Garcia-de-Andoain, Florian Heider, Marie Hoerova, Simone Manganelli
Published in: Journal of Financial Intermediation (forthcoming)
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No. 1885
18 Feb 2016
Advances in multivariate back-testing for credit risk underestimation
François Coppens, Manuel Mayer, Laurent Millischer, Florian Resch, Stephan Sauer, Klaas Schulze
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No. 1884
18 Feb 2016
Lenders on the storm of wholesale funding shocks: Saved by the central bank?
Leo de Haan, Philip Vermeulen, Jan Willem van den End
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No. 1883
08 Feb 2016
Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating? A Panel-VAR analysis for the Euro area countries
Maria Grazia Attinasi, Luca Metelli
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No. 1882
05 Feb 2016
Is the intrinsic value of macroeconomic news announcements related to their asset price impact?
Thomas Gilbert, Chiara Scotti, Georg Strasser, Clara Vega
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No. 1881
05 Feb 2016
Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households
Marco Gross, Francisco Javier Población García
Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
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No. 1880
25 Jan 2016
Reserve accumulation, inflation and moral hazard: Evidence from a natural experiment
Livia Chiţu
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No. 1879
25 Jan 2016
Taking gravity online: the role of virtual proximity in international finance
Christiane Hellmanzik, Martin Schmitz
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No. 1878
18 Jan 2016
Sovereign to corporate risk spillovers
Patrick Augustin, Hamid Boustanifar, Johannes Breckenfelder, Jan Schnitzler
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No. 1877
14 Jan 2016
Credit subsidies
Isabel Correia, Fiorella De Fiore, Pedro Teles, Oreste Tristani
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No. 1876
14 Jan 2016
Bank networks from text: interrelations, centrality and determinants
Samuel Rönnqvist, Peter Sarlin
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No. 1875
13 Jan 2016
The information in systemic risk rankings
Federico Nucera, Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman, André Lucas
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No. 1874
13 Jan 2016
Cash management and payment choices: a simulation model with international comparisons
Carlos Arango, Yassine Bouhdaoui, David Bounie, Martina Eschelbach, Lola Hernández
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Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that the papers are published in the name of the author(s). Their views do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.